MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, the contentious local politics of slots in Prince Georgia's County. But first, the global effects of crime and instability in Central America. By all accounts, Guatemala's civil war was one of the bloodiest conflicts of the 20th century. Between 1960 and 1996, 250,000 people were killed or disappeared in fighting that often took on Cold War implications.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIBut as bad as things were at the height of war, many say it's much worse and more violent today. Last year, country's homicide rate was eight times higher than the rate in the United States and twice as bad as neighboring Mexico. It's a crisis grounded in the country's unique and troubled history, but it's also being fueled by the global drug trade and the drug war being waged across the border. Guatemala's new president-elect has pledged to clamp down on drug traffickers and gangs with an iron fist.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIJoining us to discuss all this is Michael Shifter, president of Inter-American Dialogue and a professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. Michael Shifter, good to see you again.

PROF. MICHAEL SHIFTERThank you. Nice to be here.

NNAMDIJoining us by phone from New York is Eduardo Stein, vice president of Guatemala between 2004 to 2008. He's coordinator of the Central American think tank network. Eduardo Stein, thank you for joining us.

MR. EDUARDO STEINThank you very much for the invitation.

NNAMDIAlso joining us by phone from San Salvador is Adriana Beltran, senior associate for Citizen Security at the Washington office on Latin America. Adriana, thank you also for joining us.

MS. ADRIANA BELTRANThank you for the invitation.

NNAMDIIf you'd like to join this conversation, call us at 800-433-8850. Send email to kojo@wamu.org, a tweet, @kojoshow, or just go to our website, kojoshow.org. Ask a question or make a comment there. The U.S. has a population of roughly 300 million people -- any given year, 15,000 murders. Guatemala has a population of 14 million, an annual murder rate of 6,000.

NNAMDIRight there, you get a sense of how bad crime has gotten in the country. By many measures, in fact, the country is less safe today than it was at the height of the civil war. Michael Shifter, at what point does a national problem in a place like Guatemala, in fact, become a global problem for a country like the United States?

SHIFTERWell, certainly, the factors that have contributed to this very situation -- security situation in Guatemala really are global in nature. The drug trade is very significant force that is contributing to the deteriorating security situation, to the spreading criminality and violence in Guatemala, the drug trade where the United States is the largest consumer of cocaine in the world. Europe is a major consumer. Other Latin American countries are as well.

SHIFTERThe production comes from the Andean countries in South America. Mexico is fighting drug cartels. Those cartels are being displaced to Central America and Guatemala, which borders Mexico. So there is a huge responsibility by the international community because the explanation lies at a global level. There's also the risk that is posed by the violence in Guatemala to the rule of law and democracy in a country of 14 million people that has had a tragic history and a long civil war as you mentioned.

SHIFTERSo this is an urgent issue that demands serious attention by the international community. Fortunately, in the last couple of years -- I think a little bit delayed, but better late than never -- there's been a greater attention focused on this, including by the United States, the United Nations, some of the European countries and some of Guatemala's neighbors. But it's a formidable, formidable challenge.

NNAMDIEduardo Stein, you are a former vice president in Guatemala from a different political party than President-elect Otto Perez Molina. But you were recently tapped to help with the transition. Let's talk politics for a second. How do you interpret his victory?

STEINWell, I think at the very core of that victory was the preoccupation by most voters on the citizen insecurity in the country. He was regarded, as appeared in the polls and in most research works that were done throughout last month before election, as the person in the mind of voters more capable of addressing that problem.

STEINAlthough, internationally, his iron-fisted arguments in the campaign were perhaps regarded as a return to the past, to repression tactics. Population didn't see it that way because it was quite clear from the outset that he was, as well, willing to strengthen the justice system in Guatemala. To any knowledgeable person, you cannot address crime issues without strengthening the justice system.

NNAMDIAdriana, what does the mano dura significance say to you?

BELTRANI mean, I think there are many concerns when you talk about implementing mano dura or iron fist policies, particularly if you look at the not-too-far-back history of countries in Central America that have taken this approach. Because for many, it's this, you know, generalized idea that to fight crime, to combat crime, you need to implement really repressive policies, which include, you know, giving broad powers to the police, to toughening criminal codes, increasing prison terms and the like that have oftentimes led to numerous abuses, extrajudicial executions.

BELTRANBut also, to a lack of what it really takes to address these really high crime rates, which is also, as Vice President Stein say, the focus on strengthening the institutions, but also on investing on violence prevention, which, unfortunately, in many of these countries has lagged far behind.

NNAMDIAgain, the number to call is 800-433-8850 if you have questions or comments about the situation in Central America regarding the drug war or the political situations. Guatemala's president-elect is an interesting figure. Otto Perez was once known by the nom de guerre of Major Tito. On the one hand, he was a senior military leader at the height of some of the worst violence of the war. On the other, he was never directly implicated in any war crimes.

NNAMDIHe was seen as a progressive voice within the military, a force for pushing for peace and democracy. I guess the question seems to be -- and I'll start with you, Michael Shifter -- which Perez will emerge? Either way, people -- some people are uneasy about this result. What was your interpretation?

SHIFTERWell, I think he certainly has a controversial, questionable past. There have been a lot of doubts that have been raised. I think he's a contradictory figure. As you mentioned, he also played a positive role in the peace process. And we've seen this in many situations. There are always two sides to lots of complicated political figures. And I think, at this moment, we should give him the benefit of the doubt, be very vigilant, be very careful and very cautious. Understand that there have been questions raised, although there was no direct implication.

SHIFTERAnd -- but the country is in very, very dire straits. And he has been elected. He has legitimacy. There's no question about it. The Guatemalan people have expressed their will. And I think everybody has an interest in him succeeding, but succeeding in dealing with the problem, but within a democratic framework and adhering to norms of human rights.

NNAMDIEduardo Stein, which Perez will emerge?

STEINI really don't know, but as far what we have known about him, not only in his military past but, as has been mentioned in this program, about his contribution to the negotiation of the peace accords, we must remember that he was also instrumental in stopping the Fujimori-fashioned coup that former President Serrano tried in Guatemala in its time, and he as a military figure was also instrumental in gathering the military support to make institutionality (sp?) work.

STEINAside from that, I think that the type of people that he has involved in the preparation of his proposal of a government plan is quite varied and some quite competent and internationally known figures in their own right. However, he receives a depleted treasury with pressures of public spending in many crucial areas of development. So one thing that we are looking for is how they are going to manage in the first few months of the administration to cope with this financial disaster.

NNAMDIIs your own participation in a prominent way in the transition process an expression of hope or confidence?

STEINMy own participation, you ask?

NNAMDIYes.

STEINWell, I was called in as an adviser to the transition process because I was responsible to do that four years ago. And we started around the month of July. This has started very late in the present administration, but I think still some important issues will be addressed jointly by both teams, the outgoing and the incoming teams. I wouldn't want to speak only about my own participation. Although I have served before, twice, in the government, I have no relationship with the present elected administration.

STEINBut the different people that he has looked for to help out not only in the transition but in the launching of his administration, and the fact that they began to work the day after they were elected so that they don't lose any time, starting the day they are invested with the responsibility, is the best of signs.

NNAMDIMichael Shifter, Perez is also a graduate of the School of the Americas, a special college for training Latin American military officers at Fort Benning in Georgia. During the 1990s, the center became a focal point of huge protest by activists in the country. But those have mostly died down in recent years. Therefore, contextualize this for us. How significant is the fact that he is a graduate of the School of the Americas?

SHIFTERWell, clearly, one has to put it in the context of the Cold War and the role that the United States played in the Cold War and training military officials in Latin America and elsewhere in the fight against communism. And I think the history is clear, that there were clearly a lot of abuses and violations committed by government that the United States supported and people who were trained in the United States. That chapter, happily, has ended. We're in a new chapter. We're in a new situation. The problems are different.

SHIFTERThe Cold War is over. The United States does, I think, have a certain moral obligation, though, in situations like Guatemala, because of its historic role, that may not be able to succeed in getting a lot of votes in Congress for the kind of resources Eduardo Stein says is needed. But I think that has to be part, I think, of the understanding as we look at the situation, the challenges that the country faces.

NNAMDIAdriana Beltran, here's a posting we got on our website from Joanne, "The entire period in Latin America was horrific. I lived there in 1965 and knew some of the people that made waves later on. First of all, you have to mention the School of the Americas in Georgia. They trained people to kill. We needed a Petraeus then, someone to engage the people in building a community rather than this terrible hatred and killing. And, apparently, that is what they trained people to do.

NNAMDI"I saw one soldier change from a nice guy to a real hater, being taught that the guerillas were awful communists and bad people." Adriana Beltran, that period behind us, or should we take it into consideration?

BELTRANI mean, I think, as Michael said, you know, the School of the Americas was used to train different military, basically, to fight communism in the region where they were trained, you know, in different tactics, torture tactics. And it led to a lot of abuses and violations, which, you know, we all know there are various violations that happened, particularly in countries in Central America, like in Guatemala.

BELTRANI think that times have changed. You know, right now, we see a lot of insecurity or challenges coming more from non-state actors. Then that's, you know, you also have problems within the security forces in terms of corruption. You have very high levels of infiltration, of organized crime, particularly in countries like Guatemala that, you know, obviously leads to problem as a rule of law and questions of, you know, the governability of the country.

NNAMDIGot to take a short break. When we come back, we will continue our conversation on politics and the drug wars in Central America. If you have called, stay on the line. We'll try to get to your call as quickly as possible. You can also send email to kojo@wamu.org, or send us a tweet, @kojoshow. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

NNAMDIWelcome back. We're talking about the implications of the interaction of politics and the drug wars in Central America. Our guests are Adriana Beltran, senior associate for Citizen Security at the Washington Office on Latin America. She joins us by phone from San Salvador. Michael Shifter is president of Inter-American Dialogue and a professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. And Eduardo Stein was vice president of Guatemala from 2004 to 2008. He's coordinator of the Central American Think Tank. He joins us by telephone from New York.

NNAMDIEduardo Stein, during your time as vice president, the wounds from the civil war still very fresh. The peace accords of 1996 called for compensation for victims of the war and the end of social and economic exclusion of Mayans, though, through provision of land and education opportunities. But most of those of terms have never been met. To what extent is the violence we see today a sort of byproduct, if you will, of missed opportunities?

STEINIt is hard and complex to make that type of linkages. We are very proud as an administration to have started the nationwide compensation plan and have put budgetary resources of the nature and amounts that were agreed on in the peace accords. But society, in general, has to find the flexibility and the reckoning mechanisms to be able to pinpoint on those precise procedures through which population at-large can be healed of those wounds.

STEINOn the other hand, as Michael and Adriana know very well, this -- after the war in Central America, a new situation with the drug cartels, and in general, organized crime, transnational cartels has put ourselves in a different dynamic. And it is, by its very nature, regional, and it demands regional attention. We are still at odds with many of our regional policy drafting and policy agreeing, as what's recently evidenced in the summit of presidents by mid-year in Guatemala City, where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was present.

STEINThere were 22 regional projects that the Central American governments presented to the international community. And, sadly enough, none of the projects included, for example, money laundering. If you do not follow the trail of the money, you will not be able to tell apart the mechanism through which these regional criminal organizations have been able to penetrate public and private institutions and are damaging the texture and the fabric of society, again, in different ways than what was done 25 years ago.

NNAMDIAdriana, it's my understanding that you are in San Salvador for a regional conference to address these issues. Can you talk about what you expect to happen there?

BELTRANYes. Actually, there's -- I'm here at this meeting. We are convening a number of different organizations from civil society from all over the region that work on very specific issues related to citizen security. Either they work on the ground, implementing violence prevention programs or work more on issues related to institutional strengthening.

BELTRANAnd our hope is, you know, to work with these organizations to come up with recommendations and proposals that emerge from civil society, given their experience and their know-how, that they can then share with the governments with SICA, the regional body, and with donors, you know, as way of providing input to this regional strategy and also to national plans. I think what we've seen so far since this process started is that there has been very little opportunity or spaces of dialogue with civil society.

BELTRANAnd I think, one, they have a lot of experience and know-how to share. But also, given the context and given the issues that the region is facing, it is important to bring all sectors of society into this process. It's not just governments. It's not just the donors, but how do you incorporate different civil society organizations and the private sector, which are going to be key for any success?

NNAMDIMichael Shifter, since we're talking regional, Nicaragua held elections the same week as Guatemala. Voters gave Daniel Ortega, former Sandinista leader, another term as president. Does it seem like we are getting a little bit of Cold War redux here. Here's an email we got or a post on our website from Bridget. "We talk about whether democratic institutions are in peril by the recent elections, the crime and security issues and the drug trafficking.

NNAMDI"I wonder whether your guests think that truly democratic institutions were actually ever established. It's somewhat incredible to see these same leaders from the mid-1980's ruling these countries. And I see the same thing in other countries in the region and in other fields apart from politics. Surely, there's a younger generation or two or three of politicians and policy makers. I'm wondering where they are. Does the old guard just make any room for them?"

SHIFTERWell, I think this underlines a very critical problem, which is the nature of political institutions, political parties in Latin America that are very weak. And in the case of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega is back, and he clearly, I think, has been very successful in political terms, in manipulating institutions to his advantage so he can stay in power, making alliances with business communities, which he didn't do when he was a Sandinista leader in the 1980's.

SHIFTERSo you have these individuals who adapt the circumstances, but clearly, the objective is to stay in office, so it's a major problem as well. The whole renewal of political leadership in many countries in Latin America is a major problem because political parties have become divorced from society, don't represent real constituents, and that's why we see in lots of polls and surveys that there's a lot of distrust and lack of confidence in politicians and political institutions, which, of course, is not unique to Latin America as we know very well.

NNAMDII'll get to the phones in a second. But, Eduardo Stein, what do you think about that?

STEINWell, I think, Michael is absolutely right. And besides we were rather distressed about the way in which in Nicaragua, through, as he said, very careful and shroud manipulation of other powers of the state, he managed to corrupt the supreme court, to corrupt the comptroller's office and to corrupt the electoral tribunal.

STEINAnd what we are surprised to see is that even though there were international observation mission and the organization of American state had one, and the head of the mission complained that he had been impeded or his observers had been impeded access to about 20 percent of the voting precincts where they had designed their observation, however, the entire Latin American community of governments gave recognition to the result.

STEINI cannot but recall what happened a bit over 10 years ago in Peru when Fujimori tried to be elected for a third term. I was head of the electoral observation mission, and I was sorry to declare that the elections were rigged, that they were not free and fair elections. And yet the Latin American community recognized the third term for Fujimori.

NNAMDIOn to the phones. Here's Albert in Hanover, Md. Albert, you're one the air. Thank you for waiting. Go ahead, please.

ALBERTThank you for taking my call. The rule of law that was mentioned by Mrs. Beltran is vanished for many reasons that politicians like Mr. -- or the former vice president of Guatemala will not dare to mention. The drug trafficking is a product or perhaps is a enterprise guarded by those sheltered by the law. People in our country -- excuse me -- become murderers because they rape our laws. Kids die because they harbor hatred towards those in powers. I just want to ask them, why do they think that we are here in this country, that everyone in here respect the laws or the land of the laws? Excuse me.

NNAMDIAre you...

ALBERTAnd one question for them as well, do you think (unintelligible) ...

NNAMDIWell, well, wait a minute, Albert. Are you -- Albert, are you speaking as an immigrant from Central America?

ALBERTYes, sir. I was born in Honduras.

NNAMDIOkay.

ALBERTAnd by seeing what is happening in my country, it's totally despicable by those on top, by those sheltered by the law. Those people -- I'm talking about politicians -- they guard themselves, and they hide in the shadows because they don't want to be exposed to the truth. And they come here to the United States (unintelligible) ...

NNAMDIOkay, but we're running out of time. Do you have a specific question?

ALBERTMy question is, do you think that having done nothing while in power leads to something? Thank you.

NNAMDIHaving done nothing while empowered leads to something? I don't know the politician who will agree with any notion that he or she has done nothing, so I think that's a false premise of a question to ask. But I don't know if Eduardo Stein would have any comment at all.

STEINWell, the product of our work during four years was -- and it's still public and is a public record. Just to give you two examples, during our four-year tenure, and something that was directly supervised by the vice presidency, we managed to strike more than 1,000 agreements in agrarian conflicts through a peaceful negotiation and mediation, a mechanism in which the supreme court did not want to help us. So we had to create an ad hoc group of legal advisers, most of which were volunteers. So things can, indeed, be done, even in spite of the obstacles that we might find in strict or rigid legislation.

NNAMDIAdriana Beltran, we mentioned the murder rate, but the important other statistic is the rate at which crime is or is not prosecuted. The country has an impunity rate of 97 or 98 percent. That means only 2 percent of crimes are prosecuted. How significant is that?

BELTRANThat is tremendously significant, and I think it's one of the issues that contributes to very high crime rates because, essentially, you know, the message that you're sending is that you can commit a crime and the likelihood that you're going to face trial is very minimal. In fact, you know, and it's sad to say but, you know, a U.N. rapporteur, when he was visiting Guatemala, described Guatemala as the best place to commit murder precisely because of this issue.

BELTRANIt raises also the question about, again, the need to really focus on strengthening the institutions and what an effective citizen security strategy ought to look like. And I would say that a key component of that involves dealing with how do you strengthen the criminal justice system, how do you fix the police, how the fix the public prosecutors office, how do you strengthen the courts so that they're able to do their jobs and that citizens feel that the state is actually taking care of providing them with security to avoid -- because you're seeing cases like this emerge in different parts of the country of citizens taking the line to their own hands.

NNAMDIAnd, I guess, one of the problems providing with providing security by the government is captured in this email we got from someone who sent it anonymously. "I've lived in Guatemala for over five of the last 15 years. Sure, give Perez Molina the benefit of the doubt, but we have been here before, example, during the '96-2000 Arzu administration when the peace accords were signed. There are two factors that need to be addressed.

NNAMDI"One, Guatemalans as a people do not accept that government should have a monopoly on the exercise, of course, of force, so it's under-resourced. Government is underfunded, especially security. Guatemala collects only about 11 percent of GDP in revenues, so there is no way government can provide the security that the people need." Michael Shifter.

SHIFTERIt's an excellent point, and it's a valid point. And, I think, unless there's a sense of responsibility by those in Guatemala who can afford it and contribute as we've seen in other countries -- in Columbia, when Columbia faced a critical situation, early part 2002, 2003, there was a special tax for those who can afford it to contribute to this national effort to deal with spreading violence. And the problem is people don't want to contribute 'cause they don't think the state is effective, and the state is not effective because it doesn't have resources.

SHIFTERSo it's a vicious circle that has to be broken. I think that has to be a major focus. And as much as the international community can and I think should help and support Guatemala and other similar situations, in the end of the day, it's going to be Guatemalans who have to turn around the situation. And I think this question of taxation and responsibility and contributing is going to be absolutely central.

NNAMDIHere is Anne in Washington, D.C. Anne, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

ANNEOne of the things that I think really needs to be talked about is economic context in which any proposals are made for resolving the problem of the rise of drug violence. When you have people who are extremely impoverished and there are no good alternatives, they're invariably going to turn to what they can to make money. And one way with the (unintelligible) accords and the, you know, the basic -- with the free trade accords, this has made it impossible for developing nations to protect their native economies through tariffs, which is what all the advanced industrialized countries did.

ANNEAnd so they're reduced to the most miserable factory jobs or basic peonage, you know, in these large plantation holdings. Anybody is going to opt for the drug trade. And one of the things that also, I think, needs to be addressed is the impact of possible legalization of drugs in the U.S., which is the primary consumer.

ANNEJust one thing, factually, about Guatemala. It is, I know, and I think other countries also -- but I'm not sure. I know in Guatemala, the military wasn't only trained and provided with arms against the -- during the civil war by the U.S. The U.S. also, in return for its huge subsidies to Israel, uses Israel as a military proxy. And Israel actually went in and trained a lot of the military in Guatemala and devised the whole hamlet system whereby people...

NNAMDIYou're raising a very complicated question there, Anne, and we don't have a lot of time to respond. Allow me to have Adriana Beltran respond to one aspect of it, the drug trafficking. We got in -- this email from Anonymous, Adriana. It says, "Corruption in Guatemala is fueled by the drug trade. It's so pervasive that a truly vigorous campaign against international narcotics trafficking is not possible. Many interests in Guatemala benefit from weak government institutions and accept drug trafficking as a cost of malleable government. That is, many Guatemalans just aren't that concerned."

NNAMDIAdriana Beltran.

BELTRANI think that raises a very important point, which is that the point of corruption and infiltration, I would say, this is not a new phenomenon. I think Guatemala and other countries in the region have faced problems of corruption, of organized crime, different types of organized crime throughout history and alliances between these groups and the state.

BELTRANAnd one important point to mention is that that was actually what led to the Guatemalan government, particularly under the Berger administration, to call for the establishment of the International Commission against Impunity (unintelligible) which is tasked precisely with trying to investigate these so-called clandestine structures and actually being able to bring members of these groups to prosecution.

BELTRANI think, with the growing influence of drug cartels coming from Mexico, obviously, this makes the corruption and the infiltration into the state, institutions, local governments a lot higher. And I think this is an issue that desperately needs to be addressed. It's also an issue that, when you look at the regional security strategy, it's not addressed. I haven't seen yet any kind of projects that directly focus on, how do you establish greater anticorruption mechanisms….

NNAMDIAnd everything that has been said here today suggests that the solution has, ultimately, to be a regional solution, at the very least, if not a global one. Adriana Beltran is senior associate for citizen security at the Washington office on Latin America. Eduardo Stein is vice -- was vice president of Guatemala from 2004 to 2008. He is coordinator of the Central American Think Tank Network. And Michael Shifter is president of Inter-American Dialogue and a professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. Thank you all for joining us.

NNAMDIWe're going to take a short break. When we come back, we'll be talking about the vote upcoming in Prince George's County tomorrow that would ban slots. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.