MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Democrats took back the governor's mansion in Virginia last night. The Commonwealth elected former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe to be its 72nd governor in a race closely watched by observers across the entire country.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIMcAuliffe defeated Virginia Atty. Gen. Ken Cuccinelli, a staunch conservative with close ties to Tea Party Republicans. And his victory is already sparking conversations about Virginia's changing political identity and the national identities of both major political parties. This hour we'll explore what made the difference in yesterday's races for governor and lieutenant governor and what lies ahead in the future for the Old Dominion.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIJoining us in studio is WAMU 88.5 reporter Michael Pope. He reports not only for WAMU but for the Connection Newspapers. Michael, thank you for joining us.

MR. MICHAEL POPEIt's great to be here.

NNAMDIChristina Bellantoni is politics editor at the PBS News Hour. She also joins us in studio. Christina, good to see you.

MS. CHRISTINA BELLANTONIThanks for having me.

NNAMDIJoining us by phone is Tom Davis, former member of the U.S. House of Representatives. He's a Republican who represented the Commonwealth's 11th District. He's now the director of federal affairs at Deloitte LLP. Tom Davis, thank you for joining us.

MR. TOM DAVISOh, Kojo, thanks for having me.

NNAMDIMichael, four years ago, Republicans won every single statewide race on the ballot in Virginia. Last night, Democrats won the races for governor and the close, maybe (unintelligible) not in the race for attorney general, that that's going to be the subject of a recount. Before we get into the nitty-gritty of each of these contests, what's the broadest explanation for the wide differences between those results from last night and what happened in 2009?

POPEI think one way to interpret that is the division inside the Republican Party. There's kind of a low-grade Civil War happening right now inside the Republican Party. On one side you've got the Tea Party faction, the Ted Cruz faction of the Republican Party, very conservative. Lots of people blamed that faction for the shutdown.

POPEThen on the other side, there are the business conservatives, the sort of the -- I think of these people as like the Chamber of Commerce crowd essentially. And, you know, this division actually gave Cuccinelli some problems during the campaign. So if you look at an issue like Medicaid expansion, for example, the Tea Party crowd really was against Medicaid expansion, and Cuccinelli sided with that faction.

POPEBut there was another faction, another Republican Party, the business faction that supported Medicaid expansion because it made money, frankly, for doctors and hospitals. So there we see the division inside the Republican Party hurting Cuccinelli during the campaign.

NNAMDIChristina, same question to you.

BELLANTONIIt's also the state is changing. You're seeing -- I covered Virginia starting 10 years ago when I first got to this area, and it was staunchly conservative. You had some counties in Northern Virginia where it was very certain that Republicans would win. But there were definitely those changes over the last few years in what we call the exburbs, right, the outer suburbs as Washington, D.C. residents move out, expand into the, you know, good education in Northern Virginia and further and further down south, even pooling into Fredericksburg.

BELLANTONIAnd you've seen Democrats be able to keep duplicating that coalition that they're building between women, suburban, you know, not just moms but also middle income, upper income people. They are appealing to that message on economics, on competence and that sort of a thing. And then, when you throw in social issues, that turned lot of voters off, so that's one reason. But you're exactly right about the divisions in the Republican Party. And we're going to talk a lot about that.

BELLANTONIBut I would venture that the rest of the ticket had something to do with that as well. You saw, you know, Ken Cuccinelli chose to do a convention, nominating himself that way. He probably would have won a regular primary anyway, but he ended up with E.W. Jackson on that ticket. That didn't help him at all.

NNAMDITom Davis, in the final analysis, what do you think made the difference for Terry McAuliffe last night? Did he win simply by providing mainstream voters with a more palatable alternative to Ken Cuccinelli? Or was there more at work?

DAVISWell, let me lay the right predicate here.

NNAMDIPlease do.

DAVISPresident Obama's rating in the state was lower today than it was four years ago when McDonnell and company swept office. His negative was 53 percent according to the NBC exit polls. We have a tradition in Virginia of voting against the party of the president, for governor. That had happened nine straight times.

DAVISRepublicans didn't need to do much to be able to capitalize on that history in the state. But, unfortunately, because of the ticket they nominated, they became the issue as opposed to making McAuliffe and the president the issue. And as a result of that, they lost narrowly. They lost narrowly, I might add, at a time when Christie is winning in a very blue state up the coast by 20 points.

NNAMDIIf you have comments or questions for us, the number is 800-433-8850. What do you think accounted for last night's Democratic victories in Virginia statewide races? 800-433-8850. First you, Christina.

BELLANTONIWell, you have all of that, Tom Davis. I'm just curious what you think about how the state's message is changing, too. I mean, you had these back-to-back terms of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine where it looked like Tim Kaine was really a second term for Mark Warner. And then Bob McDonnell came in and swept in some change. And then both Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe aren't able to really sell themselves as tied to the last administration. And how much is that going to really affect how McAuliffe can govern going forward?

DAVISWell, I think he's going to have to govern from the Senate 'cause he's got a heavy Republican State House he's going to have to deal with if he wants to get anything done. But in addition to that, McAuliffe was probably the weakest Democratic candidate that they have nominated in a generation. At least at the start, he ran a disciplined campaign and emerged, I think, stronger for it.

DAVISBut entering this campaign, you know, he was viewed as a great target which sourced a campaign against -- McAuliffe also campaigned as a liberal. He did not really campaign as someone who was centered. He supported gay marriage. None of the other Democrats had done that in their races. He supported gun control openly. He was -- supported the EPA standards on coal which account for his losses in Southwest Virginia.

DAVISYou have an unpopular president in the White House, and he still won. And it says something about the changing demographics of the state and the changing issue matrix that the Republicans that are presenting to voters, something that I think a lot of voters just aren't interested in.

NNAMDIMichael Pope.

DAVISI'm not saying that social issues aren't important, that they don't have their place in the Republican base, but the average voter is concerned about kitchen table issues. And Cuccinelli was not able to make those arguments because he was on his heels on the social issues.

NNAMDIMichael.

DAVISMcAuliffe pinned him down very early on those.

POPESo on the issue of Obama's performance, one figure that struck me from the exit polling was a figure that showed a slight majority disapprove of Obama's performance. These are Virginia voters. Now, a slight majority disapprove of Obama's performance while a similar percentage approve of Gov. McDonnell's performance. So, I mean, this is really interesting.

POPEObama's unpopular, and scandal-plagued Gov. McDonnell is popular, right? So these are Virginia voters that ended up electing Terry McAuliffe. So I'd like to pose a question then to Tom Davis. So how do you change the dynamic in terms of the Republican Party so that those voters will, you know, be successful in a statewide campaign? Specifically, what about this issue of conventions versus primaries? The last time I looked at this, the Republicans were planning on choosing their U.S. Senate candidate in a convention next year. Is that still the plan, Tom Davis? And do you think that...

DAVISYes. That's the plan is to go to convention next year. It kind of makes the Senate race a throwaway for the Republicans. I think realistically you're not going to see major reforms before 2016. Each side has their narrative in terms of why they lost. But ultimately Cuccinelli was not able to consolidate the party base behind him. Had he been able to do that, I think he would have won.

DAVISThere were some numerous high-profile Republican defections. And because of the way he went through the convention process and the Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling would not support him, I think it lead to some bleeding of the basic Republican coalition. And I bet, you know, in a race that's so -- well, 55,000 vote difference, I think that probably accounts for the difference.

DAVISI do think the ideological tone -- Cuccinelli would have preferred to have presented himself differently. But going after his past records that McAuliffe's team, I think, was able early on to define Cuccinelli in a way I think he wouldn't have liked to have presented himself to voters.

POPEDid I hear you just predict that the Republican candidate in the U.S. Senate race would be a throwaway? In other words, I think I heard you just predict the Democrat would win the U.S. Senate race next year. Is that right?

DAVISWell, what you heard me say is if they go to a convention process, you know, barring somebody like a Cuccinelli getting in it, which I don't think is likely at this point, yeah, at this point, I think going through the convention process, any high-profile candidate that would have an appeal outside the party base, which would be essential to win it, is just unlikely to emerge. And it's, you know, frankly, looking at this, I think it's a race that national Republicans aren't targeting. And serious votes in the state are basically saying it's a write-off.

DAVISAnd in addition to that, Mark Warner has done a very good job of getting around to the business community, building bridges and the likes of -- he's in pretty good shape right now. Now, it could always change if the environment changes and a strong candidate emerges. But right now that does not appear to be the case.

NNAMDIThe great thing about having two reporters as my guests in this hour is that this is like a vacation hour for me. So I simply say, here's Christina Bellantoni.

BELLANTONIWell, Bill Bolling, I am curious what you think, Tom Davis, about whether he decides to run in four years. I mean, he sat this out. He did not endorse. He issued a pretty stern statement last night saying he was concerned about the direction of the party, that there was a lot of soul searching that needed to go on, and especially given what you just said about the Senate race. I mean, what should he be doing for the next four years once he leaves that lieutenant governor spot?

DAVISWell, I think that's going to be up to Bill. I think he has a role in the party. Look, the party needs Cuccinelli, and it needs Bolling. We need all hands on deck to be able to carry statewide. This is a changed state, as you noted earlier, demographically. But we're also losing votes just to the issues that we're presenting to voters that don't seem -- they don't seem to be buying. We're selling, but they're not buying.

DAVISAnd we've got to -- have to change the issues that we talk about if we're going to become relevant to a majority of Virginians. But this party has, instead of looking at recrimination, we've got to find a way to get everybody in the room talking to each other, making sure everybody feels they have a seat at the table, and go from there. And, frankly, I'm not sure that's going to happen just looking at the emails and the blogs the day following the election.

DAVISBecause of the closeness of this election, I think that this becomes even more difficult than before because Cuccinelli ran a close race, and they're looking at -- see, the national Republicans pulled out of this thing. A lot of moderates didn't get behind him. And had they done united -- they're kind of looking around at the blame game, understandably. So I think it gets worse before it gets better. I hope I'm wrong.

NNAMDITom Davis, why do you think the race turned out to be closer than it was anticipated? Ken Cuccinelli said it was because Virginians were sending a statement about Obamacare, their opposition to the Affordable Care Act. What do you say?

DAVISWell, I don't think there's any question about it. (unintelligible) reason it tightened. And Virginia has a history of sending a message to Washington in their gubernatorial votes. The last nine elections, we've sent a -- someone to Richmond who's opposite the party of the president. Virginians traditionally do this, our proximity to the nation's capital, the fact that our gubernatorial races have traditionally been three-quarters national and one-quarter state.

DAVISBut Cuccinelli's inability to rally the party base -- and I think it goes back to the roots of changing the rules on this convention, seeing Bill Bolling move and then some of the Republican (unintelligible) Cuccinelli's opposition to transportation bills, which was a top priority -- Virginia Republicans, in Northern Virginia at least, the business community, all of those played a role when it's this close a race. If you ask me, the one thing that could have changed this, I think had the national Republicans not given up on him so early this might have been a very different race, given Obama's unpopularity. I think Ken Cuccinelli's right on that.

NNAMDIWe're doing a reflection on last night's election in Virginia and taking your calls at 800-433-8850. Here is Sam, in Springfield, Va. Sam, your turn.

SAMHi. I was hoping that you guys could comment on how much the third party candidate, Robert Sarvis, affected the election and perhaps that, although he had a small percentage of the votes, those votes theoretically could have gone to Cuccinelli.

BELLANTONIWell, it was interesting. He got more than 6.6 percent the last time I looked -- that's Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate. It's the third highest Libertarian gubernatorial haul in any governor's election. So that's interesting enough to me. Russ Potts -- I covered that 2005 race when Tim Kaine became governor.

BELLANTONIOne of my favorite candidates ever to cover, very dynamic and colorful. And he only pulled -- I think it was 2.3 percent that year and everyone thought that he was going to be a major factor because he was a Republican state senator and fairly moderate. And that just wasn't the case. So the fact that Sarvis seems to be a bit of protest vote for some people, but also resonated with younger voters.

BELLANTONIA lot of the younger voters that the "News Hour" talked to really like him. They were looking to him because they were fed up with the two parties. It says something about the direction of the state and the demographics changing.

NNAMDIMichael Pope?

POPEOn the numbers, so Sarvis ended up with about 145,000 votes. Now, that's significant because the margin of victory for McAuliffe is about 50,000 votes. So even if half of those Sarvis voters went over to Cuccinelli, he might have won the race.

NNAMDIWhat do you say, Tom Davis?

DAVISI think the Sarvis vote was a straight protest vote, probably taken equally. It might have even taken a little more out of McAuliffe at the end of the day because if you watch Cuccinelli in the close, they bring in Rand Paul, who's kind of the father of the modern Libertarian party. They have Libertarian email saying Sarvis isn't really a Libertarian, going after that vote. It was a protest vote and then you look at how it divided down ballot.

DAVISThe closeness of the attorney general's race tells you it was probably pretty evenly divided. The thought before was that Obenshain would survive if McAuliffe didn't win by more than 6 points. But what happened at the end of the day was it was a 3 point margin. And it's a tied race for attorney general. So I think that's vote split.

BELLANTONIAnd, you know, what's fascinating about the attorney general's race is that Virginia has not had a Democratic attorney general since Doug Wilder was governor. It's been 20 years. The Republicans have prevailed. And when Bob McDonnell won his race to be attorney general it was only 323 votes that was his ultimate victory.

POPEAnd there was a recount, don't forget.

BELLANTONIYeah.

NNAMDITom Davis, Christina commented earlier on the changing demographics at play in the commonwealth, but one Washington Post columnist wrote last night that it's clear the white vote in Virginia is eroding rapidly. Do you think that's true?

DAVISWell, the state's becoming more diverse. I don't think there's any question about that. Cuccinelli carried the white vote and he carried the white women. But I don't think politics ought to be black and white. It ought to be based on issues. Republicans need to learn to talk to a lot of the newcomers to the state, a lot of ethnics and people of color. I think many of them buy the Republican philosophy, but they're not buying the Republicans brand. And until Republicans learn to talk to these people and communicate with these groups, I think they're going to continue to have problems.

NNAMDIWell, to what degree do you think Democrats have found a formula that they can repeat and execute in Virginia? If you take away the 2009 statewide races, they've had an impressive winning streak when you take into account the 2012 races for president and for senate and the 2008 races for president and senate, Tom Davis?

DAVISWell, just very quickly, Kojo, on that, Republicans won 13 out of 14 presidential races between 1952 and 2008. Now, they've lost two in a row. If Obenshain doesn't survive, this will be the first time since 1968 that the Republicans have not had an elected statewide officer. So it's not all bad news for the Republicans, but they're going to have to retool and start getting their act together and uniting if they want to stay competitive. The good news for Republicans is the Democrats aren't any better. In many cases they're worse, but if you can't get your message across it doesn't make any difference.

NNAMDITom Davis, thank you so much for joining us.

DAVISThank you very much, Kojo.

NNAMDITom Davis is a former member of the United States House of Representatives. He's a Republican who represented the commonwealth's 11th District. He's now the director of federal affairs at Deloitte LLP. We're going to be taking a short break. We're expecting Lieutenant Governor elect Ralph Northam to be joining us at some point during the course of the discussion. You may want to stay tuned for that. Michael Pope and Christina Bellantoni will be staying with us. We're taking your calls at 800-433-8850.

NNAMDIWhat do you think the results of yesterday's election in Virginia say about the commonwealth's current political identity? 800-433-8850. You can send email to kojo@wamu.org or shoot us a tweet @kojoshow. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

NNAMDIWelcome back to our conversation about last night's election in Virginia. We're talking with Christina Bellantoni. She's politics editor at the PBS "News Hour." She joins us in studio with Michael Pope. He's a reporter for WAMU 88.5 and the Connection Newspapers. We're inviting your calls at 800-433-8850. You can send email to kojo@wamu.org. We got this email from Andy. "I’m a young voter in northern Virginia. I voted yesterday as a protest vote against the Tea Party and the purposeless government shutdown. I didn't really care for McAuliffe and under different circumstances I would not have made voting yesterday a priority I guess." Christina?

BELLANTONIDoes she say -- did she vote for McAuliffe as the protest vote or for Sarvis?

NNAMDII'm assuming that she voted for McAuliffe because she said, "I didn't really care for McAuliffe (laugh) and under different circumstances I would not have made voting yesterday a priority."

BELLANTONIThere were plenty of voters who said they voted for him even though they didn't like him, which is an interesting dynamic. And this is someone that's never held elected office. You know, he worked for years as a top fundraiser for the Democratic Party. Very close friends with the Clintons, and knows sort of everyone. Knows a lot of business people, knows how to raise money and engage in that way, but working with a legislature is not going to be easy. And that's one reason I think he said in his acceptance speech or his victory speech last night that he was going to personally reach out to every single Republican member of the assembly. And there are more of them.

NNAMDII wanted to get back to a little while before he made that victory speech last night, Michael Pope, because you were at McAuliffe's election night party reporting for us. And what was the atmosphere like when it became clear that the result was going to be a lot closer than the polls had been indicating?

POPEWell, that was definitely one of the surprises of the evening because the polls had consistently shown larger and larger leads for McAuliffe. In the few days before the election I was chatting with a Democratic official about those polling numbers. And it was right around the time that the latest Quinnipiac poll showed that the lead was not as large as the Washington Post poll had shown. Like the Post poll was like 10 points or something like that. And then Quinnipiac had a newer poll that showed a 4-point lead. So, you know, here's McAuliffe going from a 10 point lead all the way down to a 4-point lead.

POPEAnd I had a Democratic official say, oh, those Quinnipiac polls, you might want to look at them with a careful eye because the Post polls are going to be much better than the Quinnipiac poll. As it turns out, that last Quinnipiac poll had it really close because it ended up being a margin of victory that was even smaller. So there was concern, certainly, at the Democratic Party event, that their lead wasn't as big as they would like it to be, but then I heard several Democrats say, a win is a win.

NNAMDISpeaking of a win is a win, we mentioned earlier that we expected to be joined by Ralph Northam, the lieutenant governor elect of Virginia. He's a Democrat. He now joins us by phone. Ralph Northam, thank you so much for joining us and congratulations to you.

LT. GOV. RALPH NORTHAMWell, thank you, Kojo, and good morning. And I appreciate you all having me on your show today.

NNAMDIIt was only four years ago that Democrats were completely shut out of statewide offices in Virginia. Now, they're going to control at least two of them. How would you explain the turnaround and your own victory?

NORTHAMWell, you know, I think, Kojo, Virginians are worried about the economy and jobs and, you know, we got into the social agenda that rolled into Richmond a couple years ago and that tweaked a lot of people's interests, certainly women throughout the commonwealth. And then, you know, the discrimination against the LGBT community outraged folks. What happened with the judge that we were trying to appoint a year ago, and, you know, people are worried about good transportation, good education, access to quality healthcare and so that's what we listened to from Virginians and that's what's on their minds.

NORTHAMAnd I think they're tired of the rigid ideology, you know, that government shutdown in Washington that happened a few weeks ago. Really, you know, people are concerned about that. We're coming out of a very difficult recession. So, you know, I think they want leaders that will sit down there and be pragmatic and, you know, get things done and move Virginia forward.

NNAMDIHere's Michael Pope.

POPEWell, congratulations, Senator.

NORTHAMWell, thank you, Michael.

POPEBut with your success comes a new challenge, which is the special election for your senate district. I want to ask you about the Democrats that are vying for that position. So…

NNAMDICan't you let a guy bask in victory for 10 minutes before you move on?

POPEWell, that was last night. He got to bask last night. (laughter) I heard your speech, Senator. It was great. So now let's move on. We're at the next day. So there are several Democrats vying for your seat. One is Lynwood Lewis, a current delegate who represents the Eastern Shore. Then there's Paula Miller, a former delegate from Norfolk. And then there's Andria McClellan who was the treasurer of your campaign. Are you willing right now, Senator, to make an endorsement in that race, perhaps the treasurer of your own campaign?

NORTHAMWell, I appreciate the question. And, you know, that's a very important seat with the Senate being 20-20. And we want to make sure that we can replace my seat with a Democrat. And, you know, all three of those candidates are excellent candidates. So there's a lot of discussion, as you might imagine, going on today to, you know, to see who should be running.

NORTHAMAnd you know hopes that we'll be able to get it worked out so that we won't have a primary and, excuse me, a special election. That wouldn't be in anybody's best interest. So, you know, I think they're going to talk with these folks and see if we can work it out. But, again, you know, they're all three excellent. They're all three (unintelligible) you know friends of mine. So that's probably not something I'm going to get in the middle of right now.

POPEOkay. I was about to say, I didn't hear an endorsement in that answer. (laughter)

NNAMDIHere's Christina Bellantoni.

BELLANTONIDefinitely not. Well, so you had Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling did sort of the rare thing of running two terms as lieutenant governor. And you did see a lot of interesting action where his parliamentary decisions and tie-breaking votes, you know, being lieutenant governor is sometimes not as interesting as being another statewide official. So how do you view yourself in that role, given that you've got a closely divided senate, you've given what you saw with redistricting and some of those other challenges over the last year?

NORTHAMYeah, I appreciate the question, Christina. And, as you know, the lieutenant governor's primary job is to preside over the senate. And I certainly want to do a good job there. And, as you said, it's 20-20, so, you know, my reputation is with working on both sides of the aisle or with both sides of the aisle, rather. And, you know, that's what I will continue to do, bring people together and move Virginia forward. But two areas, Christina, that are very important to me and I think to Virginia, one is pre-K education. I mean I'm an educator and, as you know, a pediatric neurologist. And we need to make sure that all children in Virginia have access to pre-K education.

NORTHAMThe other issue that I think I can be very helpful with, especially to future Governor McAuliffe, is the Medicaid expansion. And, you know, my background's in healthcare. And it's very important that we sit down and educate these legislators and make sure they realize how important it is, as an economic driver and also as a quality of life issue, making sure people have access to healthcare, that we move forward with Medicaid expansion.

NNAMDIEducation and healthcare, yes, but what potential do you see for ethics reform when lawmakers get back to work next year?

NORTHAMWell, I see a lot of potential, Kojo. And the reason being the legislature sometimes tends to be more reactionary than visionary. And with what happened in Virginia this past year it's unfortunate, it's been an embarrassment. And so I think there'll be a lot of pieces of legislation that are submitted that we'll talk about. And, you know, that's going to have to be a bipartisan effort. We're going to need to sit down and come up with some plans, but, you know, basically to keep what happened last year of happening again in Virginia. Virginians deserve better and we don't need to go down that road again.

NNAMDIWhat do you think last night's results say about the current political identity of Virginia?

NORTHAMWell, you know, I'm pleased to see, you know, we're purple, turning blue. And I was interested last night in watching the map of Virginia. There's still a lot of what I would call red areas that we need to really get down and make those people, Kojo, realize a lot of the things that we stand for as Democrats, we're trying to help them with.

NORTHAMI mean, good education that'll, you know, prepare people to enter the workforce, quality healthcare, protecting our environment for our children and their grandchildren. So, you know, we've got a lot of work to do, but, you know, I think that the tone, especially with the younger generation, that Virginia will continue to evolve into a very blue state.

NNAMDILet me push you into the healthcare battles quickly. Are there landmines lurking for the McAuliffe administration when it comes to making appointments? The Washington Post wrote this morning that some progressive activists are already worried about the potential for Bill Hazel to be kept on as secretary of health. What do you say?

NORTHAMYeah, you know, there's a lot that's been happening in the last 24 hours and I haven't been in the midst of those discussions, but I'm sure future Governor McAuliffe is and, again, I'm going to, you know, take the position that I want to help him in any way I can and bring my experience from healthcare to the table, but as far as appointments and to his, you know, staff, I'm not in that loop right now.

NNAMDIThat's very diplomatically said. Here's Christina.

BELLANTONIIt is interesting how important healthcare is going to be because we talked a little bit about the exit polls. I mean the majority of people didn't like the Affordable Care Act, but still voted for Terry McAuliffe, but they actually do have a decision here. I mean it's settled law nationally, but they are reviewing what they are going to do with Medicaid expansion.

BELLANTONIWhile you've seen a lot of Republican governors either reject that outright or tinker with it at the edges. You know, they're making some big decisions that Terry McAuliffe made clear. He would expand it, the way that the president recommends. It'd be a partner to President Obama as opposed to somebody challenging him. So those appointments are going to be very important.

BELLANTONIAnd then going to the state senate special election you're going to have potentially more of those, if Terry McAuliffe plucks from the legislature for his own administration. You've seen other governors do that, but with such a closely divided senate that could end up being a problem. You don't want to make a competitive seat for your party and then the House of Delegates could be very interesting.

NNAMDIMichael Pope?

NORTHAMYeah, you know…

NNAMDIOh, please go ahead, Ralph Northam.

NORTHAMI was just going to say it's about time. And then certainly the, you know, the rollout of the Affordable Care Act and the problems with the websites have been unfortunate, but, you know, I think once we get past that Virginians will realize that, you know, there's some really good things about the Affordable Care Act. And, you know, it's certainly a good place to start and, you know, we just need to sit people down at the table and say we've got some challenges with healthcare, let's work together.

NORTHAMAnd, again, at the end of the day, do what's in the best interests of Virginia. So, you know, I think it can be done. And we just want to make sure that all Virginians have access to quality healthcare. And the Medicaid expansion, again, is 400,000 individuals who are working -- and I would underline the word working -- that can't afford coverage. And when people don't have coverage they end up in the emergency room.

NORTHAMSo we can do better than that. It's an economic driver for Virginia. And I think it's real important. So that's going to be part of my job, as soon as we take office, to really work with the legislature and let them know how important it is that we move forward with Medicaid.

NNAMDIMichael Pope?

POPEOn the issue of Medicaid expansion, I'd like to ask the lieutenant governor elect about the process here. So earlier this year, when the governor was trying to round up the votes for this historic transportation package, the members of the general assembly cut a deal and they essentially got the votes for the transportation package in exchange for this sort of partial compromise on Medicaid expansion, which was not necessarily to agree to it, but to create a commission to look into it.

POPEThis is a standard solution to problems, right? Create a commission and look at it. So this commission has yet to issue a recommendation. So the question I'd like to ask the incoming lieutenant governor is how do you see this process unfolding? Is the commission going to have the final say or what will be the role of the state senate, that you now preside over, in terms of actually deciding whether or not Medicaid expansion is going to move forward?

NORTHAMYeah, you know, there are a couple of options, Mike. When certainly if the commission stays in place, you know, the objective is going to be to make sure to hopefully educate those folks as to how important the expansion is. If there's other legislation that would take the place of that commission (unintelligible) it's going to be done through a budget amendment. And so, you know, that's another option. But the bottom line for all of that, it has to be done through the legislature. It's not something that the governor can do. So, you know, he'll obviously sign off on it. But it needs to happen in the Senate and in the House, and then we'll go from there.

NNAMDIRalph Northam is lieutenant governor elect of Virginia. He's a Democrat. Ralph Northam, thank you for joining us.

NORTHAMThank you so much. And it's always a pleasure to be on your show.

NNAMDIAnd good luck to you. We're going to take a short break. When we come back, we'll be continuing our analysis of the election in Virginia with some input about what happens in other parts -- what happened in other parts of the country. But we're taking your calls at 800-433-8850. What do you think Republican candidates can do to regain traction with voters in future races in Virginia? 800-433-8850 or send us an email to kojo@wamu.org. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

NNAMDIWelcome back. We're looking over last night's election with Christina Bellantoni, politics editor at the "PBS News Hour." She joins us in studio with Michael Pope. He's a reporter for WAMU 88.5 and the Connection newspapers. We take your calls at 800-433-8850. Here now is Mick in Salisbury, MD. Mick, you're on the air. Go ahead please.

MICKHow you doing, Kojo?

NNAMDIDoing well.

MICKYeah, I just wanted to make a quick comment on the lieutenant governor-elect's comments for lack for a better word. And it just seemed like he said nothing the entire time he was talking. It was nothing more than just talking points. I heard a new foreword about, I don't know, 10, 12 times that he wants to move Virginia forward. I heard nothing of substance, nothing of substance.

NNAMDIYou sound like an E.W. Jackson kind of guy, you know, had he been here he would certainly have made statements that would have expressed an opinion. But I think the lieutenant governor finds himself in a strange position. At this point, he has not yet taken office. It's less than 24 hours since he got elected. He is going to be, as he said, his main job is to lead the Senate at this point. And I guess he wants to see some cues from the governor-elect before he starts making strong statements of opinion. I don't know, Christina.

BELLANTONIYeah. And it sounded like he didn't really want to make any news either. We haven't heard from Terry McAuliffe today. Traditionally, the governors elect hold a press conference. I don't know if he has official plans to do that or not. But, you know, we're gonna be hearing a lot from him in the next few days. And he is going to be charting the course.

POPEIt sounds to me that Northam was trying very hard not to make news, yes. I agree with that.

NNAMDIYeah, I agree with that.

BELLANTONIAs opposed to Tom Davis who made plenty of news.

NNAMDIWho I guess made plenty of news. I suspect Michael will have them to report about what he said later today. A lot of people -- well, before we go to New Jersey, let's talk about the attorney general's race, which is deadlocked even as we speak, the race between two Marks, Obenshain and Herring. Michael?

POPEWell, it might actually change while I'm speaking, so let me...

NNAMDIIt's been happening like that all morning.

BELLANTONIOkay, refresh.

POPELet me hit refresh on my browser here. Yeah, so where things stand right now is that Obenshain has 1,100 votes and Herring 1,099 votes. So that's really close. It's not going to get -- it's about as close as you can possibly get.

NNAMDIIt's not 200 votes, yeah.

POPEIt sort of -- it gives you whiplash the sort of back and forth on this. You know, the statements, I love the statements that come into my inbox. Last night, I got a statement at 11:30 pm from the chairman of the Republican Party congratulating...

BELLANTONICongratulating, yeah.

POPECongratulating the attorney general-elect. Oh, no, wait maybe then the numbers changed overnight and then Herring's people put out a statement at 11:30 this morning saying that Herring would win once all the absentee and provisional ballots. So that's, you know, in a matter of 12 hours there, there was diametrically opposed statements from the campaigns.

BELLANTONIAnd what you've seen in so many cases, I mean, this goes back to the Bush recount of 2000 that ended up with President George W. Bush. The person who is presumed to be on top sort of initially often is able to carry that mantle in. And that, you know, in this case, Obenshain is at the top now for another, you know, however long, the few hundred votes. I mean, if he's able to act that way, that does sometimes help.

NNAMDIBut of course the last time there was a recount in the case of Bob McDonnell it started out with him leading by a much larger margin than he eventually ended up winning by. But you're right, the winner has, in a lot of these cases, been the one who eventually got over the top. A lot of people would like to compare Virginia's results to those in the other gubernatorial race last night, the one in New Jersey.

NNAMDIChris Christie cruised to re-election last night as a Republican in a very Democratic state. Is it fair to make this comparison and ask what made him successful there and what made a Republican not as successful in less Democratic Virginia?

BELLANTONIWell, I wouldn't necessarily say it's fair or unfair, it's just a difference...

NNAMDIOh, let's do it anyway, yes.

BELLANTONI...scenario. Sure. In Virginia, you have this weird situation where governors are not allowed to serve back to back terms. So I can tell you right now, Mark Warner would have been re-elected had he had that ability. And Tim Kaine, maybe would have been re-elected. Probably a more competitive phrase. But incumbents tend to do better. Bob McDonnell's a different story. But Chris Christie, you know, he has served the state.

BELLANTONIThe voters like him. His State Senator Barbara Buono was the candidate up against him. And Christie seem so strong from the beginning that she didn't get a lot of help from the National Democratic Party. She didn't have people come in and campaign for them. I mean, Barack Obama crossed the river for Terry McAuliffe to campaign for him over the weekend when Terry was leading by double digits at that point.

BELLANTONISo, you didn't see her get the same amount of support and that's in part because Democrats don't mind working with Chris Christie. But, you know, we all love to talk about the next presidential race even though it's so early. And could this set him up for something? It doesn't hurt to be re-elected in a state that Republicans can then say, well, maybe he could win in a general. That's less likely that a Republican could in the general, any Republican.

BELLANTONIBut his coalition was interesting. He won resoundingly. He ended up with more than 60 percent of the vote, including half of Latino voters in New Jersey which are a really expanding electorate. But it's also -- he's moderate on some things, but there are some things that he's pretty conservative on. He doesn't necessarily represent that middle independent voter, you know, staunchly anti-abortion. That's going to be an issue if he runs for president.

NNAMDIAnd it may say less about the party itself than -- about the party than it does about Christie himself.

BELLANTONISure.

NNAMDIMichael?

POPEKojo, I want to go back to these attorney general numbers, because I totally screwed that up. I think I said thousand when I meant million. So it's one million. So Obenshain has 1,100,000 and Herring has 1,099,000 votes. So just to be clear about that. That is -- Obenshain is slightly ahead at this point. But the Herring people feel like once the absentee and provisional ballots are counted, they will end up with a lead.

POPEWhatever the case is, it's probably going to be under one percentage point, which means we will see a recount in that race. On this issue of Chris Christie, if you look at these two gubernatorial elections here last night. Chris Christie in New Jersey and McAuliffe in Virginia. One way to read that is that it's a victory for pragmatism. And in fact, I think we heard this in the McAuliffe victory speech last night.

POPEYou touched on this earlier where he said that he is going to reach across the aisle and call these Republicans and try to work with them. So in Christie and in McAuliffe, we're seeing this undercurrent of pragmatism.

NNAMDIHow much of Chris Christie's strategy is transferable to Republican candidates in other races? We said a lot of them is about him personally. But is there a power center of moderates, if you will, within the Republican Party nationally right now that someone like Christie could tap into?

BELLANTONIIt's more different I think between governors and lawmakers serving here in Washington. There are not a lot of moderate Republicans in Washington right now at the Capitol. So if those people are looking for national office, it's a different kind of scenario. But moderates don't tend to win primaries in some cases. You've got -- Republicans have often gone to the person who is the second runner up in their party four years before.

BELLANTONISo that's why you -- one reason you ended up with Mitt Romney, that's one reason, you know, why you're having a lot of people talk about maybe Paul Ryan or some other things. But so Chris Christie, could he jump in there or could it be some of these conservative, more flame thrower types like Rand Paul or Ted Cruz that are going to really appeal to Iowa voters. Moderate Republicans at the governor's level, there are plenty of them.

BELLANTONIAnd there's a real -- it's an interesting bench. It's a bench that is diverse and younger than a lot of the Republicans in Washington and a lot of the people that the Democrats might be considering running for president. So that's going to be a race to really watch. And whether you're a moderate or just in not super, super conservative is the question. I mean, none of these people are liberal Republicans.

NNAMDIHere's Alex in Wheaton, MD. Alex, you're on the air. Go ahead please.

ALEXHello, Kojo and guests. To drag the topic back to the Virginia AG race for a moment. I was kind of questioning the competence of the Democratic campaign strategy because just being in this media market as a observer across the river and seeing the TV ads, whether it was pro or con, I'd been seeing Obenshain's face and name on TV for at least a month now in pretty heavy saturation.

ALEXAnd didn't see or hear or even know the name of Herring until very late in the race. I mean, it seems like all their efforts went into negative ads. And I can imagine people going to the polls, you know, considering the way the top of the slate wound up in the Democratic column and the fact that Obenshain, I guess, kind of just promised to continue Cuccinelli's agenda as AG. I'm just wondering if that strategy worked or if people only really knew Obenshain's name when they got to the polls.

NNAMDIWell, bringing up the issue of negative ads allows me to ask Christina Bellantoni why it is that maybe, just maybe, as you indicate Mark Herring got lost in negative ads because you may be surprised at how many of them there were.

BELLANTONIYeah. These were -- any voter in Virginia saw a lot of these negative ads. But one stat that stood out to me this morning was on abortion alone there were 5,600 spots that aired during this campaign. And it's not even that long of a campaign. That's a lot of television. And it's something that you heard consistently in 2012, particularly with the Citizens United campaign finance decision where there's not unlimited spending but a lot more spending allowed that voters are just saturated.

BELLANTONIYou can't physically buy enough of the airwaves up to be able to advertise. And so people are looking into other places, whether that's a pre-roll on a YouTube ad or billboards or radio. And that's what you definitely saw in Virginia. I mean, Terry McAuliffe even said it in his victory speech, I'm sure everybody's glad to see these ads end. And of course they are, because people don't like it.

BELLANTONIBut the fact is negative advertising works. Mitch McConnell, the minority leader in the Senate has famously said, money spent on a positive ad is money wasted. And voters do remember it even though they say they don't like negative spots.

NNAMDISo, Alex, from a purely arithmetical standpoint, it's entirely possible that with the combination of Obenshain's ad for himself and the negative ads against his abortion position, that theoretically his name may have been mentioned more times than Herring's names in the commercials that you saw. But here's Michael Pope.

POPEAnd we knew that he liked to be in a car also with Cuccinelli.

BELLANTONIGood point. And he's a family, you know, family politics guy. His father's death in a plane crash actually led to Senator John Warner decades ago. His sister's involved in politics. She was the leader of the Republican Party seven, eight years ago, Kate Obenshain. So there's definitely a story there that I think a lot of people are going to remember that name. Whereas Mark Herring is not as well known.

POPEAnd also, you mentioned that McAuliffe brought up this issue of, you know, finally the commercials are going to stop. And that got a huge response. You know, one thing that I was -- being in the room, the sort of struck out, struck me was that there was a percentage of people who are laughing because it was a funny joke and then there were a percentage of people who were applauding wildly because they're so sick of these commercials.

POPEAnd I would -- even in this room of Democrats and people that have worked very hard for your campaign or in all these campaigns, I would say that the percentage of people who are applauding because they were really happy that these commercials are finally going to be over was much larger than the people who are simply laughing at the joke.

NNAMDIOn to John in Burke, VA. John, you're on the air, go ahead please.

JOHNGood afternoon. One of the things that was striking to me was how few people voted. And that to me, it says more about the election and more about the candidates. It's kind of like somebody who had a stick in the fire, wrote it and nobody else, mostly other people just ignored it, like, there's no meaning to the election of one or the other. Although certainly I was terrified that Cuccinelli might be elected.

JOHNBut that was what's striking is how many people don't. Now I'm up there in age and that's a group that votes. But I'm not sure which group didn't vote. Was that the young people or just people in general are not interested in what's going on in the political scene?

NNAMDIChristina?

BELLANTONII don't have the number right in front of me. But I saw last night that turn-out was actually slightly higher than it was in 2009, not a lot. It's an off-year election. Virginia is in one of those unique positions. There are actually elections every single November in Virginia because during the off-year election you've got the legislative races every other year. But one thing you did see is a lot of young people turned out.

BELLANTONIA lot of African-American voters turned out. I mean, McAuliffe did really duplicate that Obama model that they used in both 2008 and 2012, making sure people voted, you know, early if that was allowed or making sure that they were taking their friends to the polls. It was decent weather. But I found purely anecdotally but I was in Charlottesville over the weekend and drove through Virginia and talked to some people who were very tuned out.

BELLANTONIThey just said, oh, I hate this race. I can't wait for it to be over. I just don't want that Cuccinelli guy to win. You know, they were very clear on who he was. They didn't necessarily even remember McAuliffe's name. They weren't interested or paying that much attention.

NNAMDIThank you very much for your call, John. Michael Pope?

POPESo about two million people participated in this election versus last year in the presidential election four million people participated. So that's a drop off of about half compared to last year. So you see a different kind of voter, you know, showing up to the polls at this kind of election. They tend to be older, whiter, more conservative. And so what the Democrats were going after with their ground game operation was targeting those presidential voters who showed up for the presidential election but they might not show up.

POPEI spoke to a volunteer last night at the McAuliffe event who said that in her 30 years of volunteering for campaigns, she had never come across a phone list like she got in this election. She was telling me over the weekend she got a list of people to call and instead of just likely voters, it was a list of what the phone bank said was instead of likely voters it was disinterested likely voters, which was sort of a new category to her. And that she felt like that was an indication that the McAuliffe ground game was very strong.

NNAMDIAlmost out of time left. But how long would the recount process in the attorney general's race likely take?

BELLANTONII think it can be up to a month. I don't remember from '09. But it's not a short process.

POPEWell, let's remember that when Bob McDonnell, the outgoing governor, became attorney general that was also a very close raise with Creigh Deeds. And there was a recount in that race.

NNAMDIIn that race, McDonnell leads on election night by 2,023 votes. When the recount was over, he had won by just 360 votes. Michael Pope is a reporter for WAMU 88.5 and the Connection Newspapers. Michael, thank you for joining us.

POPEThank you.

NNAMDIChristina Bellantoni is politics editor at the "PBS News Hour." Christina, thank you for joining us.

BELLANTONIThank you.

NNAMDIThank you all for listening. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.