Guest Host: Jim Asendio

In what’s being seen as a test for the transition to democracy and a bellwether for the region, Egyptians headed to the polls today for the first parliamentary election since protesters forced President Hosni Mubarak from power last February. Voting came on the heels of a resurgence in violence and protests. Forty-three people were killed over the weekend and protesters are demanding that the military generals in charge step aside and allow a civilian government to rule.

Guests

  • Samer Shehata Assistant Professor of Arab Politics, Georgetown University

Transcript

  • 13:06:37

    MR. JIM ASENDIOFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your community with the world. I'm news director Jim Asendio sitting in for Kojo. Coming up later this hour, we'll talk about low cost inner city motor coaches that don't operate out of traditional terminals. But first, across Egypt, voters are casting ballots today for the first parliamentary election since Hosni Mubarak's ouster in February. Voting coming on the heels of a violent week in Tahrir Square.

  • 13:07:12

    MR. JIM ASENDIOThe eviction of a small protest camp there led to several days of clashes with security police, 43 people are dead, 2,000 injured. The tensions peeked this past Saturday after a police van hit and killed an unarmed 19-year-old protestor. Tens of thousands of Egyptians returned to Tahrir Square yesterday to demand that the military generals who assumed control in February, hand over authority to a civilian government.

  • 13:07:37

    MR. JIM ASENDIOWell against that backdrop, the nation begins a confusing election process today that's likely to stretch out for months and could put Islamist party candidates in governing positions, that is if the ruling generals actually give any authority to the new parliament. Joining us from Egypt for an update on the violence and the voting is Samer Shehata. He's an assistant professor of Arab politics at Georgetown University. And I know you're in Alexandria, Egypt right now about 140 miles from Cairo where demonstrators have been demanding that the military hand over power to a civilian government. What is the mood today there?

  • 13:08:17

    MR. SAMER SHEHATAWell, demonstrators were also in Alexandria for the last several days, also demanding that the military counsel hand over power to a civilian government. And, in fact, last Friday, there was a major demonstration in March of about 15,000 peaceful demonstrators of all ages, men and women, children, religious people as well, Christians and Muslims and so on. The mood today, however, is somewhat surprising I think for many of us.

  • 13:08:48

    MR. SAMER SHEHATAAnd that is it's extremely positive, is an incredible amount of enthusiasm among most Egyptians about the voting process. There have been long lines all across Alexandria, both men and women, for the most part orderly. There have been some electoral violations or some problems, some small problems, but nothing that appears to be terribly systematic or anything approaching the fraudulence of the Mubarak era.

  • 13:09:21

    MR. SAMER SHEHATASo I think the main point is that Egyptians are proving that they are ready for democracy. As your introduction mentioned, it's not clear whether the generals who are running the country are ready for democracy, but certainly I think most Egyptians have proven today their enthusiasm and readiness for that now.

  • 13:09:41

    ASENDIOWell, let me just fill in listeners a little bit because we are speaking to you from Alexandria, Egypt. It is somewhat of a satellite delay, so after I speak, there'll be a little delay before you come back, it just takes that long to get my voice up to the satellite, down to you and then your voice back up. Now, Professor, do you feel that the protestors are speaking for most Egyptians? Do most people there want the military to step aside or do some of them fear chaos, a vacuum if the military does step aside?

  • 13:10:09

    SHEHATAWell, I think that many Egyptians are divided. There are, certainly, many who are quite critical of the military and counsel for a very good reason. Their record so far, since they assumed power, has been quite negative. They have used violence against peaceful protestors, they have made arbitrary decisions, poor management.

  • 13:10:31

    SHEHATAThey've tried civilians in front of military courts and so on. So there are certainly some, as represented by not only the protestors in Tahrir, the protestors in Egyptian cities across the country over the last week and many others who feel that way about the military and who feel that the best thing for Egypt's democratic transition is for the military to step aside now and what they've been calling for is the transfer of power to an interim civilian Presidential counsel to oversee the transition to democracy.

  • 13:11:02

    SHEHATACertainly a group of people in the society feel that way. I think that many others, simply as a result of the elections taking place today, the election schedule and so on and the realization that the Supreme Counsel of the Armed Forces is a force to be reckoned with and so on have bought in for the political process and have brought into voting as a way, possibly imperfect, to get the military out of politics and to eventually get to Egyptian democracy. So I think the country is divided, certainly the Muslim Brotherhood and many political parties, Islamist and non-Islamists are participating a full force in the elections today.

  • 13:11:44

    ASENDIOYou're listening to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show." I invite you to join us by calling 1-800-433-8850 or emailing us to kojo@wamu.org. Have you been following the events in Egypt? What do you think the latest outbreak of violence there means for the transition to democracy? And do you think the military generals, currently ruling Egypt, should step aside or would that result in chaos? Well, Professor, the elections today that are underway and we seem to have a, sort of, staged election process over a period of time, this election is for the lower house of parliament. Do you know what kind of authority that new parliament will have?

  • 13:12:23

    SHEHATAWell, that's still an open question. I think many people, of course, feel that that parliament should have legislative powers. One thing, one very important thing that the parliament was supposed to be able to do was charged with in the transition process is coming up with a 100 person committee that would be entrusted with drafting a new constitution. Now, that was one of the points of conflict that led to the major November the 18th, Friday, million person demonstration in Cairo and in other places because that was one of the things that the military was trying to take away.

  • 13:13:00

    SHEHATAThey wanted to reduce the new parliaments ability to constitute that counsel. And they proposed instead that they essentially or unknown process choose about 80 of those people and be parliament be left with only choosing 20 of them. So in theory we would think that the parliament would have some power, hopefully some significant power for the constitution and for other issues and so on.

  • 13:13:27

    SHEHATAIn reality, I think, many are skeptical because the military counsel is asking as the executive and they seem not to understand or be willing to accept the basic essence of democracy which is civilian authority, certainly civilian control over the military as well as the peaceful right to protest and to participate in the political process. Their response to protests, as you know and as you have seen, has been with, unfortunately, tremendous violence which has led to the death of, in the last week or so alone, about 40 plus individuals.

  • 13:14:04

    ASENDIOWell, many observers, whether they be in Egypt or outside or saying that this is a make or break test for the transition to democracy in Egypt and one that will have ripple effects across the region. Now, you are a professor of Arab politics, what is the feeling? What are you feeling there and are Egyptians hopeful about this election, you know, the first time out of the box?

  • 13:14:29

    SHEHATAWell, the second part of the question as I think many of the Egyptians are very hopeful. There was a great deal of anxiety yesterday evening and this morning. People didn't know how the elections would take place. People were expecting chaos. Some people were expecting violence, as you know, there have been baltagaya or thugs, paid thugs either by the security forces or by individuals candidates. And so there was a great deal of fear about that.

  • 13:14:54

    SHEHATAThankfully, that has not transpired on any large scale. And for the most part, the voting has been incredibly peaceful and people are enthusiastic about the election. With regard to the second part of the question in terms of the significance of potential transformation to democracy in Egypt, the consequences are huge. Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world. It is the heart of the Arab world, tremendous influence in terms of politics, in terms of culture, in terms of media and art and thinking across the region.

  • 13:15:26

    SHEHATAAnd also across the Red Sea to the Arabian Gulf countries, to Saudi Arabia, to some of the other countries, Kuwait, The Amoris, Bahrain, Yemen and so on, the Jordan, not to mention. And if Egypt were to become democratic, the winds of democratic change would inevitably, I think, blow eastward and would impact those regimes, which for the most part are autocratic regimes with no accountability what so ever and with very poor human rights records. And I think it's -- not unfair to say that there are many regimes in the region particularly in the Persian Gulf who are not looking forward to and might even be actively trying to prevent the emergence of democracy in Egypt.

  • 13:16:13

    ASENDIOWhen you take a look at the democratic movement throughout the Middle East and throughout Southeast Asia and in many parts of the world, you know, is there something that you, a student of Arab politics, can tell Americans? Do we need to temper our, sort of, understanding of democracy? Not expect too much but, you know, expect movement in a direction, you know, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma to try to establish relationships with that government after showing some signs toward more democracy. What does democracy mean in Egypt?

  • 13:16:54

    SHEHATAWell, I think democracy means in Egypt, for the first time in many, many decades, Egyptians having a right and a say in their own politics and in their own future. And also, hopefully not necessarily but hopefully, democracy means that the institutions of state, not only the Presidency and the legislature and so on, but also the security forces, the police respect basic rights.

  • 13:17:18

    SHEHATAOne of the problems over the last 30 or 40 years and with utilitarian governments in Egypt and elsewhere, hasn't only been fraudulent elections and so on, it's been the daily humiliation and abuse that citizens who really were deprived of citizenship suffered at the hands of the arbitrary exercise of power and authority by security forces, by members of the ruling party, by members of the regime. So that's hopefully what democracy will mean for Egypt.

  • 13:17:46

    SHEHATAWhat it would mean for the United States, I think, is also quite interesting and for other regions. I think we have to respect, of course, democratic outcomes regardless of what they are, as long as the process was one of integrity. We have to respect the wishes and aspirations of the Egyptian people. Now, that means, sometimes there will conflicts.

  • 13:18:10

    SHEHATASometimes there will be disagreements about American foreign policy, about Egyptian regional orientation or whatever that might be that might not always be the willingness, the compliance of an autocratic dictator like Mr. Mubarak. But I think what Americans and what others have to understand, is that's what democracy's about and we have to respect that.

  • 13:18:29

    ASENDIOWell, it looks as though the Muslim Brotherhood is set to win a majority in parliament and there's been a lot of speculation as to what that would mean for Egypt's future. What are some of the, you know, I guess the fears, concerns, predictions, hopes among the Egyptian people in terms of the Muslim Brotherhood being involved in these elections?

  • 13:18:49

    SHEHATASure. Well, the Brotherhood are certainly involved in the election, they're involved in a very big way and they're likely to also win quite big. But they're not going to win a majority for, I think, several reasons. One, they've claimed, themselves, that they are not contesting more then 50, 55, maybe even 60 percent of the seats. And that's an intentional strategy on their part. So it's unlikely that they will get a majority, but it's quite likely that they will get the largest -- a plurality, and be the single largest block in parliament.

  • 13:19:17

    SHEHATAAnd of course, there are other Islamist groups as well. What that is likely to mean for Egypt is, immediately at least we said a moment ago, that this parliament is entrusted with drafting a constitution. So that constitution might have a bit more of a religious component or religious elements in it that some in Egypt, certainly others much more liberal minded, secular maybe also and Christ -- the Christian population would want. We might also see an attempt at regulating certain other aspects of life based on Islamic principals or Islamic law as it were.

  • 13:19:57

    SHEHATAIt's not certain, but I think that's certainly the direction that eventually Islamist forces in Egypt want to take the country in. I think nothing to the radical extent to, say, life in Saudi Arabia or something like that, but certainly different than say, you know, Western Europe, the United States and maybe Egypt of the last few years.

  • 13:20:20

    MR.JIM ASENDIONow, what if -- if there's one thing that you want the American public to know about Egypt and about the elections, what is that one thing? What should be -- should we be looking for a particular outcome or just the process in itself?

  • 13:20:35

    SHEHATAI think it's the process. It's certainly, I think, the participation rate, the enthusiasm. Not only what we saw in Egypt, but what we saw in Tunisia several weeks ago with the parliamentary elections there, the great deal of enthusiasm, the record levels of participation around 90 percent. Much higher than anything in the United States or Western Europe. The organization, the well organized elections in Tunisia, little less wealth here in Egypt, but nevertheless a great deal of enthusiasm. All of this shows the lie that the Arab world is not ready or is incapable of democracy.

  • 13:21:10

    SHEHATAAs I said at the very beginning, Egyptians and Tunisians have proven themselves very ready for democracy. It is autocrats that have been in the way, often times with the support of the United States. And presently I would say that the remnants of those autocratic regimes are still present. In Egypt I think it has to be said that the military was certainly part of Mr. Mubarak's regime, a central pillar of it. And they still occupy a position in political life. And that needs -- that institution needs to be transformed as well, as well as the security forces and so on.

  • 13:21:46

    SHEHATASo certainly Egyptians are ready for democracy. I think they've proven that and let's hope for the best.

  • 13:21:52

    ASENDIOWell, thank you very much. That's Samer Shehata. He's assistant professor of Arab politics from Georgetown University. He was speaking with us by phone from Alexandria, Egypt. Egyptians going to the polls today to elect a lower parliament in a series of elections, hoping to have the military rulers of the government turn over the government to the civilians. You're listening to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show." We'll be back in a moment and we'll be talking about the safety of inner-city buses.

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