MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, U.S.-Mexico relations and the drug war. But first, ending years of official uncertainty, Vladimir Putin said over the weekend that he plans to run for President of Russia again, an election he will certainly win.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIIn what appears to be a long planned move to trade places, current President Dmitry Medvedev said he will become Prime Minister, the position Putin now holds. The news is both surprising and expected. Liberals in Russia who crave broader human rights and a more genuine democracy are crest fallen, but many observers say that regardless of his official title, Putin's actually been calling the shots for years and was unlikely to let go of power.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIThe question now is whether a new Putin administration will bring major change either at home or in Russia's relationships around the world. Joining us to discuss this by telephone from Moscow, is Jessica Golloher, Moscow based correspondent and a former reporter with WAMU 88.5. Jessica, good to hear from you again.

MS. JESSICA GOLLOHEROh, thank you, pleasure.

NNAMDIAnd joining us at studios from Carnegie in Washington, D.C. is James Collins, director of the Russia and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was the U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001. Jim Collins, thank you for joining us.

MR. JAMES COLLINSGreat to be with you, Kojo.

NNAMDIJim, Medvedev's announcement that he will step aside so Putin can run for President in March seems to have surprised his top ministers. Was there really uncertainty in Russia and around the world about Putin's intentions?

COLLINSWell, I don't think there was a lot of uncertainty that Mr. Putin was going to stay in a position of power. There was some speculation that he would not run for President. But by the last month or so, most people I was hearing from said he's going to be running for President. And the only uncertainty was what would be done with the Prime Ministership or where would Mr. Medvedev go.

NNAMDIThe number here is 800-433-8850. What do you think another Putin Presidency will mean for Russia? How should the world react to the news that Putin will run for President in Russia and win? 800-433-8850 or you can go to our website, kojoshow.org. Jessica, what is the reaction in Moscow to the news that Putin will run for President again? He could serve two more six year terms, meaning he would be President until 2024 and end up having ruled as long as Stalin or Brezhnev.

GOLLOHERI don't think his announcement was a surprise. Obviously, it was top news all over Russia today. I talked to many Russians who said, you know, that's what we expected. I think one of the things that was different for a lot of Russians is they didn't really expect the announcement to come over the weekend. Some mentioned that they thought maybe during Parliamentary elections in December, but it was pretty suspected and a lot of people seem to be okay with it and a lot of people seem not to be okay with it.

NNAMDIPutin is virtually assured he'll win next year's Presidential election, even given the lack of opponents. He's popular among some segments of the Russian population. Jessica, who are his supporters and why do they like him?

GOLLOHERHe has a lot of supporters. He's consistently topping in poles between he and Medvedev. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that he's very hands on, he's always out there in the press and seen waving. The average Russian sees him as a person who is a doer. Medvedev, even though he's President right now, he's sort of seen in the background. But Putin is out there, you know. When we had the forest fires here, he was dousing forest fires from a plane, he shoots darts at gray whales.

GOLLOHERYou know, he seen riding on a horse, bare-chested. So a lot of people identify with that. And you have to remember between 2000 and 2008, he really did a lot of good things for Russia. He turned the economy around after the collapse in the '90s. A lot of people see him as this doer, this person that is going to restore Russia to some of its former glory.

GOLLOHERA lot of the tensioners (sp?) also are definitely on his side, they think that he's doing the right thing for Russia. I think the people that aren't necessarily his fans are the people that are more western leaning, often a little more educated. And also, women definitely love Putin, definitely.

NNAMDI800-433-8850 is the number to call. What do you think about the Putin Presidency will mean for Russia? Jim Collins, you were ambassador to Moscow in the first year of Putin's first term as President. From what you have learned, do you think Russians will see much change in the transition from Medvedev back to another Putin administration?

COLLINSWell, I personally think we're going to see a great deal of continuity. Mr. Putin has been a factor in the way Russia has made its decisions that were important decisions for the last four years. And he was President, of course, for eight. What I think we don’t know is how he is going to address the other part of continuity, which is the same problems that have been bedeviling the country for the last two or three decades.

COLLINSHow do they diversify their economy, how do they address a declining population? How do they deal with a poor infrastructure? All of these issues have been there and they have in some sense been deferred. But I think our colleague here is absolutely right, that Mr. Putin is a man with considerable degree of support. And he has given the Ameri-Russian people more choices and more freedoms and so forth or at least more choices on a given daily basis then they are -- have ever had in their past.

NNAMDIYou mentioned the need to diversify the economy. The finance minister has said he will not serve in a new Putin administration. Is that significant? What will this Presidential transition mean for what Russia's financial and economic policies and its economic relationship with the rest of the world? Jim Collins?

COLLINSWell, I think all of those are very good questions. I found Mr. Cudrin's announcement to be somewhat surprising, just as I found it surprising that they made the announcement or at least implicitly made the announcement that Mr. Medvedev will now be the Prime Minister. But I think, frankly, nobody quite knows. I mean, the economic reality Russia has is that it is a commodity exporting country.

COLLINSIt makes the bulk of its government revenues from the oil and gas exports that it undertakes. It's going to have a deficit problem going forward and Mr. Putin, the other day, made a lot of promises which are very expensive. So there are basic real budget questions and how they're going to manage all of the priorities that have been set out. And I think, we are just going to have to wait to see.

NNAMDIJessica Golloher, Mr. Putin said, I'm quoting here, "I want to say directly, an agreement over what to do in the future was reached between us several years ago." I guess that really surprised no one.

GOLLOHEROh, absolutely. It's -- it was a well orchestrated political stunt for the fandom. I guess what really kind of frustrates a lot of Russians is that the last couple of months, Medvedev really seemed to be coming into his own. He had actually disagreed publicly with Putin over sanctions against Libya. And he was kind of coming out a little bit more into the public and it seemed like he was campaigning perhaps for the Presidency, next year.

GOLLOHERBut, you know, as the average person knows here, it's Putin who pulls the strings. Though, we just were waiting to see whether it would be decided that Medvedev or Putin would run. But it's definitely -- at least we know now. You know, the mystery is over. And as your other guest mentioned, Putin runs the country. I mean, he might've let Medvedev take the spotlight for four years, but he's back in charge now.

GOLLOHERSo I think one of the main things that a lot of people, over here, are going to be watching are the things like human rights and freedom of the press, obviously, the media was put underneath the states control, under Putin. So these are some of the things that people are worried about, obviously, people in the west see this as a challenge for Russia to become a little more democratic. So I think that Russians could get frustrated in something, you know, a lot of people say that they're not happy in Russia now.

GOLLOHERI think, there was a recent poll where more than 60 percent of the people feel like, that their life isn't better since the collapse of the Soviet Union. There really is no middle class. So I think Putin has to be very careful as to not seem too authoritarian and too hard-handed and maybe listen to the opposition groups, listen to the average person because that could spell disaster. Not right away, of course, but I think it's definitely something to watch over here.

NNAMDIHere is John in Alexandria, Va. John, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

JOHNHi there. I was just wanting to throw in my two cents and just say that I believe that with Putin returning to the Presidency, we will likely see a further chilling of relations between the United States and Russia. The United States has routinely butted heads with Russia as of late over subjects like Syria and Iran. And there's been historical problems between Russia and Western Europe over energy supplies.

JOHNAnd I think Putin has really tried to centralize his control over the country and Russians love him because he has restored some of that glory that they had under the Soviet Union. So I think, you know, with heavier centralization and with competing over spheres of influence, we will likely see some tougher relations with Russia in the future, especially as a lot of countries in the Middle East are looking for -- to restructure their alliances with the Arab Spring.

NNAMDIJim Collins, what do you think the inference I draw from John is that he thinks that Mr. Putin will be more assertive than Mr. Medvedev?

COLLINSWell, I frankly don't think that the policy we've watched over the last four years, which we've called reset, has been done against the wishes of Mr. Putin or even without his active participation. And what I do think is critical is not so much whether or not he's going to go in a different direction, but that the reset has largely accomplished the main agenda items it set out in 2009, in London.

COLLINSAnd there's a question about what comes next. How are we going to continue to build some momentum on the positive side and not let just the things that divide us end up occupying the space for the agenda? I think that's a real challenge to both parties. Both sides seem to want to focus more than in the past on the economy and the economic relationship. But whether or not that's going to do the job to keep the momentum going, I think is a real question.

NNAMDIHere is Glen in Washington, D.C. Glen, your turn.

GLENHi, I was just curious if people could comment on the fact that Putin is choosing to run the country from the position of President. He was running the country from the position of Prime Minister and at one point they talked about changing the structure of the law so that the Prime Minister position would have more actual power. And the fact that he's going back to the Presidency and he's going to run the country from that position, if people could comment on what that means for the institutions around the government.

NNAMDIJessica Golloher, did you hear the question?

GOLLOHERI did not, I'm sorry. Could you repeat that?

NNAMDIOur caller, Glen, says that Mr. Putin could've run the country from any position. He was running it from Prime Minister, that at one point he was considering making the position of Prime Minister superior to the position of President. Why do you think he's decided to run from the position to run the country from the position of President, again?

GOLLOHERWell, because, I think, that -- I think, one of the issues is that Medvedev, over the last four years, has made it very clear that he wants to modernize the infrastructure of Russia. And Putin has been less than supportive of that. I mean, he is supported but not supportive enough on a lot of levels to make that sort of happen. And, you know, for the last four years, a lot of the things that Medvedev has promised have not come to fruition at all.

GOLLOHERSo, I think maybe it was a couple of things. Well, we'll give him a chance to run the country and see what he can do under me -- my thumb, if he will. But maybe he's just tired of Medvedev, you know, being president and he wants to be the man in charge now. I mean, obviously, as we've mentioned before many times, he has won the country from prime minister. But president, he's president, what he says goes. Right now, Medvedev has a little wiggle room. He can do certain things. You know, he today yelled at Kudrin on state television and told him to resign.

GOLLOHERSo he is exerting a little bit of power. But once Putin is back as president, it's Putin's way or the highway.

NNAMDIAnd for the time being, that will have to be the final word. Jessica Golloher, thank you for joining us.

GOLLOHEROh, my pleasure, thank you.

NNAMDIJessica is a Moscow-based correspondent. She's a former reporter with the WAMU 88.5. Jim Collins, thank you for joining us.

COLLINSMy pleasure, Kojo.

NNAMDIJames Collins is director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was the U.S. ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001. We're going to take a short break. When we come back, we will look at U.S.-Mexico relations and the drug war. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.