MR. KOJO NNAMDIAlmost everyone seemed to be voting for the lesser of two evils as voters in the South American nation of Peru went to the polls this weekend. A retired Army officer and former socialist firebrand on the one hand. On the other, the right-wing daughter of a former dictator. Not exactly the ideal candidates to lead a young democracy. Ollanta Humala, the former Army officer claimed victory late Sunday over Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former president, Alberto Fujimori.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIThe vote took place thousands of miles from here, but it was closely watched across Washington. Thousands of Peruvian ex-pats actually voted in northern Virginia. Now, Washington's foreign policy establishment is trying to figure out what this election means for U.S. relations in the region. Joining us by phone is Michael Shifter. He is president of Inter-American Dialogue, and a professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. Michael Shifter, thank you for joining us.

MR. MICHAEL SHIFTERThank you, Kojo. It's a pleasure.

NNAMDIIs it possible for a democratic election to produce an elected leader nobody seems to really want? In the first round of elections, Peruvians had the choice between a right-wing candidate, a left-wing candidate and two centrist candidates. What happened to the two centrist candidates?

SHIFTERWell, actually, there were three moderate candidates, centrist candidates, right? And they divided the vote. I think all of them though they were going to win and the two more extreme candidates who had the highest rejection levels according to all the polls, emerged to go to the second round. So this wasn't because the political system is so fragmented and disbursed. This was the result that was produced.

NNAMDISo this weekend Ollanta Humala, the left-wind candidate, and Keiko Fujimori, the right-wing candidate ended up in the final ballot. Peru's Pulitzer-Prize winning author, Mario Vargas Llosa, actually compared the candidates to cancer and AIDS before he ended up endorsing the left-wing candidates. Who were these candidates, and why did they seem to elicit such negative reactions?

SHIFTERWell, both of them had Democratic credentials that were highly suspect. Ollanta Humala, who's now the President-elect of Peru, is somebody who had been accused of human rights violations, is a former military officer -- retired military. He had been accused of human rights violations in the early 1990s. He had supported the overthrow of an elected government of Alejandro Toledo in 2005. He had been very much closely identified with Hugo Chavez in the last time he ran for the presidency in 2006.

SHIFTERSo this created a lot of nervousness and a lot of worry. Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of Alberto Fujimori, who is currently serving a prison sentence of 25 years for human rights abuses and corruption. She was the first lady during his regime, and very much it's said that his government was the greatest -- was the greatest president in Peru's history. Many of the people who are close to her, associated with her were also close to her father.

SHIFTERSo that was a not a very democratic period, and Humala as well is somebody with a past that raises serious concerns. So for Peruvian Democrats, this was not a very inspired choice that they were facing yesterday.

NNAMDIYou talked a little bit about Humala's history leading a military revolt in 2000. He unsuccessfully ran for president in 2006, running as a populist firebrand. When people see that resume, they hear clips of his former speeches, they may be thinking of Venezuela. Some people apparently thinking that a Humala victory could lead to major changes similar to the policies of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.

SHIFTERWell, I think that's the concern, and we've seen, Kojo, this morning that the markets in Peru have reacted very negatively to Humala's victory yesterday. The thought that Fujumori would eke out a win, and she didn't. And, of course, they worried about nationalizations and scaring off investors, and so that's why they reacted very negatively. But one has to remember that Humala, when he lost the election in 2006, he began to embrace a much more moderate discourse.

SHIFTERThis time around he had advisors from the Port Workers' party Brazil that had worked for Lula da Silva, who was as very moderate, highly successful former president of Brazil who left office in January. So he has certainly moved to the center to appeal to the middle class to try to reassure Peruvians. Enough Peruvians were reassured so that he won, but there certainly is a sector of those that are still suspicious and waiting to see who he appoints as some of his key advisors to see which direction he'll follow.

NNAMDIMore than 700,000 Peruvians live abroad and were eligible to vote in the election, and this weekend thousands of Peruvian ex-pats lined up at polling places in Northern Virginia to take part. It's my understanding that most of them were believed to be Fujimori supporters, however. Can you explain?

SHIFTERWell, actually even in the first round, when Fujimori came in second, most of the people overseas voted for Fujimori. And although the final number is not in, it seems pretty clear that yesterday she also got the majority, and I think she was counting on a very big win from ex-pats in order to eke out a victory which wasn't quite enough. But clearly, those Peruvians who have left Peru, many of them left because of economic conditions or because of the violence.

SHIFTERAnd her father, during the 1990s, presided over a period in which he did address the problems of terrorism and high inflation, and the economy got under control, the shining path and MRTA insurgencies began considerably weaker. So he has gotten credit for that among a lot of Peruvians, and a lot of those Peruvians are those who left the country, but still have fond memories of those years in the 1990s.

NNAMDIBut Keiko Fujimori in fact ran as her own candidate even though it's difficult to separate her from the legacy of her father. She ran as her own candidate as a conservative. How was her platform different?

SHIFTERHer platform was not very different from Humala's platform, really. If you really look at what the -- the themes that both of them focused on, are reducing poverty, ending corruption, sustaining economic growth. There were very, very few details that really distinguished both of them. They really agreed. The question really came down to who Peruvians had less fear of, and who they trusted more and who they believed, who was more credible.

SHIFTERAnd that -- and who was more honest in really saying what they were going to do. There were doubts and concerns about both candidates. And that was really the campaign, and Humala really ran a very disciplined, excellent, very effective campaign. Her campaign was weaker, it wasn't as strong on the message, and I think that also hurt her.

SHIFTERBut if you really look at their programs, even though is one is called on the left -- is identified on the left, the other one's on the right. The differences in their policy ideas were pretty negligible.

NNAMDIWe're talking with Michael Shifter. He is president of Inter-American Dialogue and a professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, over the election that took place in Peru over the weekend. If you'd like to join the conversation, call us at 800-433-8850. Michael, like many Latin American nations, especially nations that export raw commodities, Peru has enjoyed relatively robust economic growth over the last decade, most I guess from mining and natural gas, but also agriculture and fisheries.

NNAMDIDid that play any role at all in this election?

SHIFTERWell, I think that's the big puzzle in this election, is usually when countries perform so well, and their economies grow as Peru has, voters want continuity, and in this case they voted for change. Not radical revolutionary change necessarily, but moderate change. The distribution of the fruits of development have not been as evenly distributed a people like. There's still high levels of corruption.

SHIFTERThere's a tremendous rejection of the political class, and so Peruvians registered their vote for Humala saying we want this growth to continue, but we also want some policies that include those that have been left out of this great national bonanza. And so that's really the challenge, and I think the mandate and message that Humala has moving forward.

NNAMDIHow does the Obama administration react to this election result? Any indication about how it feels about an Ollanta Humala presidency?

SHIFTERWell, Humala came -- was here in Washington in the fall. He came and he spoke, including at my organization, Inter-American Dialogue, and met with some of the officials of the Obama administration. I think there was a lot -- there was a lot of suspicion from many quarters. I think people are going to wait and see what he does. My sense is that the Obama administration didn't play a very important role in this whole electoral process.

SHIFTERThey're watching it very closely. Obviously it has implications for which direction Latin American moves in the coming years. Peru is an important country, but we'll have to wait and see which Humala emerges.

NNAMDII'm glad you mentioned which Humala, because you have met Humala. You came and you mentioned that he spoke at Inter-American Dialogue. You've talked with him on a number of occasions, worked with him. What is your read on him?

SHIFTERWell, I think he clearly is very disciplined. He clearly knows -- he says what people want to hear. Whether there's been a genuine transformation and conversion over the last five years from his loss in 2006 to today, it's very hard I think for anybody to judge. But he clearly is very smart. I don't think he's gonna wanna fail as president of Peru, and I think if he tries to push a very hard line and nationalize industries and scare investors, I think he's gonna generate enormous negative reaction among Peruvians, even many who voted for him, who voted for moderation, not for radical revolutionary change.

SHIFTERSo I think he's smart enough to moderate some of his policies and be more pragmatic. I think he's a work in progress. He's never held elected office before. He knows the military, but not really politics, and this will really test him. But I think he's gonna get a lot of pressure to become -- to really pursue more moderate course, otherwise I think it's gonna be very hard for him to be successful as Peru's president.

NNAMDIPeru's democracy is relatively young and unstable, which is probably part of the reason why this election was alarming to quite a few people.

SHIFTERYes, I think so. I think the paradox in Peru is that the economy is going well. The society if very vibrant and very dynamic but political parties are extremely weak. The system is very fragmented. If you look at every poll in Latin America, Peru is at the bottom of countries in terms of trust and confidence in political leaders and political institutions, and that is the real weakness and vulnerability of Peru.

SHIFTERSo, I mean, I don't think -- I don't believe in sort of the worst scenarios that some people are portraying, but I do think that the major challenge is strengthening political institutions and the confidence of Peruvians in their institutions. That is seriously lacking.

NNAMDIMichael Shifter, thank you for joining us.

SHIFTERThank you very much.

NNAMDIMichael Shifter is president of Inter-American Dialogue, and a professor at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. Earlier in the broadcast, we mentioned Mario Vargas Llosa as a Pulitzer Prize winner. He was in fact a Nobel Prize winner for literature. "The Kojo Nnamdi Show" is produced by Brendan Sweeney, Michael Martinez, Ingalisa Schrobsdorff and Taylor Burnie, with special assistance from A.C. Valdez, Kathy Goldgeier, and Elizabeth Weinstein.

NNAMDIThe managing producer is Diane Vogel. Our engineer today, Timmy Olmstead. Thank you all for listening. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.