What the death of Osama bin Laden means for America’s relationships around the globe.

Guests

  • Karin Brulliard Reporter, The Washington Post
  • Steve Coll President and CEO, New America Foundation; Staff Writer, The New Yorker; Author, "Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001" (Penguin Press)
  • Christine Fair Assistant Professor, Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service

Transcript

  • 13:06:42

    MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," Connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, how diversity morphs into unity in times of national tragedy and now, celebration. Howard Ross will be joining us later. He's a diversity consultant.

  • 13:07:12

    MR. KOJO NNAMDIBut first, you could practically hear the collective sigh of relief across the U.S. as news of Osama Bin Laden's death spread last night and early this morning. In some places, it was more than a sigh, with chants of USA erupting from crowds gathered at the White House, Ground Zero, even the Mets-Phillies game.

  • 13:07:31

    MR. KOJO NNAMDIIn the short term, there is relief. But what are the long-term implications of this mission accomplished? Well, Steve Coll literally wrote the book on the bin Ladens. He joins us from studios at the New America Foundation. He's president of the New American Foundation and a contributor to The New Yorker. Steve Coll has won two Pulitzer Prizes. His latest book is called "The Bin Ladens and The Arabian Family in the American Century." Steve Coll, thank you for joining us.

  • 13:08:00

    MR. STEVE COLLThank you, Kojo. Glad to be here.

  • 13:08:01

    NNAMDIAnd joining us by telephone is Christine Fair, professor at the Center For Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Christine, thank you for joining us. Steve Coll, I can't hear Christine's yet, but I'm sure she's there. Steve Coll, allow me to start with you.

  • 13:08:19

    NNAMDISpecial Forces had focused their search for Osama bin Laden on the mountainous region along the Afghan-Pakistani border. Were you surprised that he was found in what's been described as a popular tourist resort town?

  • 13:08:34

    COLLNot particularly. A number of senior al-Qaida leaders have been captured in Pakistani cities. Ramzi Bin al-Shib, who was important in the 9/11 plot was caught in Karachi. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was the mastermind of that plot, was arrested in Rawalpindi.

  • 13:08:54

    COLLAbu Zabeta, who at the time everyone thought was important, turned out maybe not to be so important, was captured in an even more normalized eastern city in the Punjab. So that seemed, particularly after the drones started flying, the most sensible thing to do if you were the world's most wanted person.

  • 13:09:15

    NNAMDIChristine Fair, can you hear me? No, I don't think Christine Fair is there. I can't hear Christine. Steve Coll, planning for the raid on the compound where bin Laden was found went on for months. Are you surprised, impressed by the fact that the news of this operation did not leak?

  • 13:09:34

    COLLIt is impressive. You would imagine that of all the secrets American operatives and officials would wish to keep, this might be one that they would find easy to keep. The rehearsals, I imagine, involved considerable practice against probably some replica of the mansion itself and so it would've required a number of people over the course of the months to know about what was being discussed.

  • 13:10:05

    NNAMDIHow important, in your view, was it for this to be carried out by a small team of Navy SEALS?

  • 13:10:11

    COLLWell, I think it was correct to want to do it on the ground rather to just take an air shot at the compound. Both to insure this really was bin Laden and also if it was to create a basis to make a claim about the evidence that was directly in American custody and also to dispose his corpse in the case that he resisted, as he did.

  • 13:10:41

    COLLAnd so for all those reasons, I think it made sense. This was often the plan for the very highest, valued targets, as they're called in the American system, to try to go in and do it directly rather than shoot from a predator drone in the air.

  • 13:10:56

    NNAMDISteve Coll is president of the New American Foundation and a contributor to The New Yorker. He's won two Pulitzer Prizes. His latest book is called "The Bin Ladens and The Arabian Family in The American Century." We're inviting your calls at 800-433-8850, 800-433-8850. You can also join the conversation by going to our website at kojoshow.org.

  • 13:11:19

    NNAMDILet me try Christine Fair again. Christine, can you hear me?

  • 13:11:22

    MS. CHRISTINE FAIRI can. How are you?

  • 13:11:23

    NNAMDII'm well. Christine, were there any surprises for you in, A, where Osama bin Laden was found or, two, the fact that there were no leaks of information before he was taken out?

  • 13:11:34

    FAIRI'm not surprised about the lack of leaks because they obviously kept a tight hold on those. I have to say, I think I share everyone's astonishment that this happened in Abbottabad. You know, when I was a student in Pakistan, I used to go hiking there. It's absolutely beautiful.

  • 13:11:47

    FAIRIt's also a garrison town. It's the home of the Pakistan Military Academy. In fact, the compound was just a stone's throw away from the same. Checkpoints all over the place. It really does stretch the imagination to the point of breaking to think that he could've been there without someone knowing. And, you know, it reminds me of what Secretary Clinton said almost a year ago on May 11 in 2010, when she said that we believe that the Pakistani government is withholding information about where bin Laden is.

  • 13:12:20

    NNAMDISteve Coll, there's going to be, it's already started, a great deal of speculation about the fact that where he was held had to be -- that information had to be available to officials in Pakistan. Your take on that?

  • 13:12:35

    COLLI agree with Chris. I think the circumstantial evidence is that he was under Pakistani state control. I don't see how you could read it otherwise. Now, that's only circumstantial evidence and maybe that evidence is misleading in some way, but you would ask a lot of questions first.

  • 13:12:49

    COLLThis house was constructed in 2005. Who owned the land? How was the land acquired? Who was the general contractor? How were the security systems constructed? Are there witnesses who can describe -- who visited the house? I mean, it strains credulity in just the way Chris said, but there's also affirmative circumstantial evidence that suggests that he may well have, in some sense, not under -- I don't suggest that President Zardari knew where he was, the elected president of Pakistan who doesn't have very good relations with the military.

  • 13:13:16

    COLLBut there's strong evidence to suggest that sections of the military, if not perhaps President Musharraf, a military commander and leader of Pakistan, were perfectly aware of this project.

  • 13:13:27

    NNAMDIChristine Fair, CIA activity in Pakistan has long been a point of contention for Pakistani citizens and leadership. Are complaints about drone campaigns and the controversy surrounding the arrest and then release of CIA contractor Raymond Davis after he allegedly killed two Pakistani, are those -- is that controversy still continuing and is it likely to be further fueled by this U.S. operation?

  • 13:13:56

    FAIRWell, I think it's important to really understand the big picture with these drones. The drones have been based in and out of Pakistan, although that might be changing due to the recent circumstances that you noted. And they were happening with Pakistan's permission, with Pakistan's input.

  • 13:14:11

    FAIRIt was, however, part of the deal that we would conduct the drone strikes exclusively within the travel areas and there has never been a drone strike outside of the tribal areas legally defined and that subsequent to those attacks Pakistan would holler about sovereignty being violated. The civilian causalities are largely a fabrication of the Pakistani intelligence outfit, the ISI.

  • 13:14:36

    FAIRAnd they do this for a couple of reasons. They're very good at creating strategic space within which they can wiggle out of various commitments to the United States by saying, well, look, you know, our population really doesn't like you.

  • 13:14:51

    FAIRThese are very unpopular policies. And because the Americans have been dead set upon this remaining a covert program, which is kind of silly given that, you know, President Obama made drone jokes about, you know, sticking a drone strike on the Jonas Brothers if they hit on his daughters.

  • 13:15:07

    FAIRIt's ridiculous at the level of our command. It's not covert. But when it comes to discussing the operations and who was killed and what their operational role was in their various terrorist organizations, we can't say anything to rebut the largely fictitious information that ISI floats out there.

  • 13:15:26

    FAIRSo I've been really critical of the media reports about the drone strikes because they really reflect the propaganda that's coming out of the ISI. And I don't know if your listeners appreciate the fact that about one in three journalists -- and this is from my friends who are Pakistani journalists. One in three-ish of Pakistani journalists are actually on the ISI payroll. And this in print media. It’s in television media. And that allows them to very powerfully shape the perception of a variety of issues across Pakistani policy.

  • 13:15:57

    NNAMDI800-433-8850. Steve Coll, while bin Laden's death may be a victory of sorts, it doesn't mean that al-Qaida ceases to exist. What impact do you think his death will have? Will it, in fact, create a power vacuum or has been bin Laden, in effect, not been operational for quite a while?

  • 13:16:17

    COLLWell, al-Qaida was founded 23 years ago in the summer of '88 and he was appointed emir and Ayman al-Zawahiri was appointed deputy emir. And one of the remarkable facts about the organization is that they've not been tested by a succession crisis ever since.

  • 13:16:34

    COLLAnd Ayman al-Zawahiri will now become the leader of al-Qaida, but he is a less effective communicator and a less charismatic figure than bin Laden. So we'll have to measure the impact of that over time. Al-Qaida is more than an organization based in Pakistan, though.

  • 13:16:52

    COLLIt's also always been, even back in the 90's, a network of like-minded groups with various degrees of affiliation and ideological alignment. And those groups are distributed around the Gulf region and Africa and they have varying degrees of capability.

  • 13:17:10

    COLLRight now, the one that's the most potent, from an international perspective, is al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the group based in Yemen that carried out the unsuccessful attack on a passenger plane Christmas before last. So al-Qaida's not going to disappear, but I do think that bin Laden was a unique leader and is not likely to be replaced, in terms of his creativity, his understanding of media, his ability to narrate and some of the charisma that built up around him, at least in some corners.

  • 13:17:41

    NNAMDIIs there any way to evaluate the psychological impact of the U.S. so far, up until this point, never being able to catch bin Laden and that it has, in fact, caught up with bin Laden and disposed on him, the psychological effect that is likely to have on other al-Qaida chapters around the world?

  • 13:18:02

    COLLI don't think it's likely to have so much effect on al-Qaida leaders around the world, but I do think it will have an effect in the United States. For one thing, it will give President Obama a lot more flexibility about how he manages the drawdown of troops from Afghanistan and manages regional policy.

  • 13:18:23

    COLLHe will be able to credibly say to the American people, as he did last night, in effect, I did what I said I was going to do. I came out here to bring closure and justice to the victims of 9/11 and I've done that and that's why we're in Afghanistan. And so he has much more political running room than he did two days ago, I think.

  • 13:18:44

    NNAMDIOn to the telephones. Here is Shamu in Lannon, Md. Shamu, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

  • 13:18:51

    SHAMUYes, good afternoon Kojo. Thank you to take my call. My comment is, I just want to know if the relationship between the United States and Pakistan is going to stay strong. Because for the fact, you know, they didn't give us information about bin Laden living in the jungle and different places in Pakistan and finally he got caught right, almost the city of Pakistan.

  • 13:19:18

    SHAMUI believe this is really -- these people been lying to us, give us wrong information and I don't know deeply how close between the United States and Pakistan, the relationship, but really we should watch on that. That's my comment.

  • 13:19:32

    NNAMDIChristine Fair, care to respond to Shamu's comment? We seem to have lost Christine Fair again. So, I'll go to another question. Conspiracy theory has been called a national sport in Pakistan. Steve Coll, as far as we know, leaders there were out of the loop on this operation beforehand. Do you think that that is credible, that the leaders were, in fact, out of the loop? And what reaction do you expect out of those leaders in Pakistan?

  • 13:20:06

    COLLI do think it's credible. I think it would have been surprising if the United States had disclosed anything about this operation to Pakistani counterparts in advance. The trust between the two governments and the two intelligence services has eroded and you wouldn't entrust to even valued professional colleagues in another country information about an operation of this importance to United States. So I doubt that any sharing took place, unless there was a minimum necessary.

  • 13:20:37

    COLLThe, you know, the Pakistani government has put out a statement that actually was interesting, at least the one I read. It essentially acknowledged that the United States had been signaling for a long time that if it ever had actionable intelligence about where Osama bin Laden was located, that it would unilaterally strike against that location. So it was, in effect, rather than protesting against this violation of Pakistani sovereignty, what they were saying was, we take note of the fact that the United States has long said they would do this if they could. Now they've done it and, in effect, let's move on, trying to minimize the disruption.

  • 13:21:14

    NNAMDIAfghan President Hamid Karzai's reaction could be summed up by saying, I told you so. How will this, if at all, change the dynamic between the U.S. and Afghanistan?

  • 13:21:25

    COLLWell, I think it will have a number of effects. One is what you allude in Karzai's statement, which is what the short to medium run consequences of the exposure of this particular refuge so close to a Pakistani military facility will be in U.S.-Pakistani relations. How will the Pakistanis explain themselves? How credible will their explanations be? I think there are plenty of U.S. officials who assume that Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader, is effectively under Pakistani government control.

  • 13:21:57

    COLLIs this really tolerable and what are the consequences of confronting the fact that an ally and received billions of dollars of U.S. taxpayer money might, at the same time, harbor in safety a man accused of killing 3,000 Americans. That's a pretty tough foreign policy pill to swallow. So let's see how that goes.

  • 13:22:17

    COLLAnd then, as I alluded to before, I think in Afghanistan, President Obama took a lot of risks, military risks, political risks in surging troops into the country. And he rationalized a lot of those risks around the al-Qaida story and the need to finish what was started on September 11th. And now while al-Qaida is still is resilient and obviously hasn't -- isn't going to disappear tomorrow, the death of Osama bin Laden, I think, does give the president more flexibility to change the story and the narrative around his own Afghan policy if he wishes to do so.

  • 13:22:53

    NNAMDIChristine Fair, it's my understanding that you're back with us. Can you hear me?

  • 13:22:56

    FAIR...having some technical glitches.

  • 13:22:58

    NNAMDIWe had a caller earlier to whom I asked you to respond, who essentially said that, look, the Pakistanis lied to us. We should essentially end our relationship with them.

  • 13:23:06

    FAIRWell, I want to pick up on something that Steve actually said. And, you know, the possibility that after -- or even perhaps the likelihood that after taking some 19 billion plus dollars, you know, I suppose in aid of (word?) military reimbursements to reimburse Pakistan for their cross on the global war on terrorism that they might have in fact been harboring bin Laden. You know, let's add to that the very simple fact that despite receiving all of these resources from the United States. They had been actively supporting the Afghan Taliban and they remain so.

  • 13:23:40

    FAIRAnd, you know, this is in spite of the fact that they were explicitly taking money to support the counter-insurgency operations ongoing in Afghanistan. So if it turns out that they were complicit in harboring bin Laden, you know, that's really going to be -- that's laid on top of a long-standing set of Pakistani policies of saying one thing and doing another. This is certainly within the performance envelope.

  • 13:24:06

    NNAMDIThe other question I wanted to raise with you, Christine, conspiracy (word?) already has been called a national sport in Pakistan as far as we know. And Steve said, as far as he knows, leaders there were out of the loop on this operation beforehand. What reaction are you seeing or what reaction do you expect out of Pakistan, Christine?

  • 13:24:24

    FAIRWell, first of all, that's been the information that I'm receiving is that the intelligence agencies, obviously the politicians, they would not have been brought into this loop under any circumstances. But, in fact, that's what I'm hearing as well. And I'm hearing, you know, in terms of Pakistani response to this, roughly responses that's thrown into two bins. On the one hand are those that are absolutely wanting to believe that their government was part of the solution. On my Facebook page, I have several hundred Pakistani associates and many of them are pointing to some of the CNN coverage this morning, saying that the important piece of information linking bin Laden to this compound came from the Pakistanis.

  • 13:25:05

    FAIRSo on the one hand, you see a lot of people who really just want good news coming out that their country participated actively in bringing down Bin Laden. On the other hand, you have people who are much more skeptical. I've actually seen some exchanges this morning indicating that it just seems so impossible that he's actually dead, buried at sea, no pictures. So I'm seeing a range of reactions. So just predictable.

  • 13:25:31

    NNAMDISpeaking of reactions, I'm hoping to get some of what the reaction is on the ground in Pakistan. Joining us by telephone from Islamabad is Karin Bulliard, who is the Washington Post Islamabad correspondent. Karin, I hope you can hear me.

  • 13:25:47

    MS. KARIN BULLIARDI can hear you, yeah.

  • 13:25:48

    NNAMDIOh, good. What is the mood on the ground where you are in Islamabad?

  • 13:25:54

    BULLIARDI think, right now, it's somewhat confused. I think the Pakistanis are not quite sure what to make of this operation, particularly because they're not sure of what role their government and military played in it.

  • 13:26:09

    NNAMDIDo you know what's happening now at the site of the operation in Abbottabad?

  • 13:26:15

    BULLIARDAgain, right at this moment, but not very long ago and most of the day, the military has sort of cordoned off this very large area around the compound and preventing, you know, most people from going in to see what had happened. Apparently, they were doing house to house searches nearby. Also perhaps sort of cleaning up the sites of whatever sort of residue might have been there from the operation.

  • 13:26:41

    NNAMDIKarin, we talked earlier about how conspiracy theory has been called a national sport in Pakistan. What you seem to be suggesting is that, at this point on the ground, people in Pakistan don't know what to believe.

  • 13:26:55

    BULLIARDThat's right, which means, of course, that many conspiracy theories are swirling around. You know, there are questions raised about why the body wasn't shown to journalists, where are the bodies of the others who were reportedly killed in the operation? Why was the body buried at sea? You know, how did U.S. helicopters manage to fly through Pakistani airspace without the Pakistani military knowing about it? You know, many, many conspiracy theories lurking around.

  • 13:27:27

    NNAMDIWhat are we hearing from the Pakistani leadership, President Zardari or the leadership of the ISI?

  • 13:27:34

    BULLIARDNothing from President Zardari so far. Pakistani Foreign Ministry this morning put out a fairly careful statement, you know, praising this as a good thing, the killing of Osama bin Laden, but making it very clear that it was a U.S. operation. Later, the Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani put out another statement in which he also vaguely alluded to the reaction to some of these questions that are being raised, saying something along the lines of this is not a time for conspiracies, but we need to have, you know, measured reaction.

  • 13:28:16

    BULLIARDFrom the ISI, only sort of anonymous reactions. Initially, this morning, they claimed this is a joint operation and then by the afternoon, had backtracked to saying they knew nothing about it except that, you know, their own intelligence have played some sort of role in, you know, the U.S. team making its way to this compound. But, in fact, they knew nothing very specific about the raid before it happened.

  • 13:28:44

    NNAMDIPresuming that Pakistanis have been seeing images of the response in the U.S. to the death of Osama bin Laden, have you heard about any reaction to what, to them and everybody else, appears to be a kind of celebratory response?

  • 13:28:59

    BULLIARDI haven't heard any reactions about it yet. Those images are certainly, you know, being aired on Pakistani television. But so far, I haven't heard any reaction to them.

  • 13:29:09

    NNAMDIKarin Bulliard is the Washington Post Islamabad correspondent. Thank you so much for joining us.

  • 13:29:15

    BULLIARDMy pleasure, thanks.

  • 13:29:17

    NNAMDISteve Coll, any speculation on how the U.S. reaction to news of bin Laden's death is likely to play in Afghanistan and Pakistan?

  • 13:29:25

    COLLThe U.S. reaction -- well, I think Afghans have a pretty good idea that Americans have been waiting for this day and will take some satisfaction in avenging American countrymen, as an Afghan might see it. So, no, I don't -- look, we sit in the United States and watch small protests in Pakistan and Afghanistan most weeks of the year of this character and I don't think the reversal end is likely to be consequential.

  • 13:29:55

    NNAMDISteve Coll, thank you so much for joining us.

  • 13:29:57

    COLLMy pleasure.

  • 13:29:58

    NNAMDISteve Coll is president of the New America Foundation and a contributor to the New Yorker. He's won two Pulitzer Prizes. His latest book is called "The Bin Ladens and the Arabian Family in the American Century." Christine Fair, how do you think this is likely to affect the always tense relationship between the CIA and the ISI, the Pakistani Intelligence Service?

  • 13:30:19

    FAIRYou know, I think it's all going to turn on what role the Pakistanis played in this. If, in fact, the CNN reporting is correct that the intelligence that led to the safe house and the knowledge that bin Laden was ensconced in it, if that came from the Pakistanis, this is really going to be a boon for that relationship. If it turns out, as Steve Coll has speculated in his piece this morning, that the Pakistanis were in fact harboring him, this is really going to bring down a hail of brimstone on a relationship that is already fraught nearly to the breaking point.

  • 13:30:56

    NNAMDIChristine Fair is a professor at the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service. Thank you for joining us.

  • 13:31:03

    FAIRThank you so much for having me. Have a fabulous day.

  • 13:31:05

    NNAMDIYou too. When we come back, we'll be talking with diversity consultant Howard Ross. If you've already called, stay on the line because we are talking about reactions in general and what that reaction says about the United States, both in terms of its diversity and in terms of its attitude towards the death of Osama bin Laden. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

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