MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, meandering down the twisted path of Virginia's redistricting effort, but first, the Arab spring has caused a wave of change through the Middle East and North Africa and now it has arrived on its own on the Arabian Peninsula.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIAli Abdullah Saleh has ruled at least part of Yemen for decades, but popular protests as well as some influential neighboring countries are urging a change of leadership. The Gulf Cooperation Council, a group of Arab governments located on the Arabian Peninsula, has urged Saleh to leave power and hand the reins over to his vice-president. It's a plan which leaves the formal opposition, a coalition of political parties known as the JMP, divided.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIHere to talk about that divide, Yemen's future and how change in Yemen will affect the United States is Abdulwahab Alkebsi. He is the regional director for Africa and the Middle East at the Center for International and Private Enterprise. Abdul, thank you so much for joining us.

MR. ABDULWAHAB ALKEBSIThank you for having me, Kojo.

NNAMDIJoining us from Princeton University's broadcast studios is Barbara Bodine, a former ambassador to Yemen. Barbara Bodine is currently a lecturer at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Barbara Bodine, thank you for joining us.

MS. BARBARA BODINEMy pleasure.

NNAMDII'll start with you, Barbara. Though Yemen is not actually a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it's not even on the Gulf technically, this group of countries has significant influence with Yemen. Why has it fallen to the Gulf Cooperation Council to solve this political crisis?

BODINEWell, you're quite right. Yemen is not on the Gulf and it also is dissimilar from the other Gulf countries in that it is not oil-rich at all. It is energy poor. And it's got a republican form of government, whereas all of the other GCC states are monarchies. But what happens in Yemen, given the size of this population, given its poverty, given its potential for serious instability has an immediate effect on the Gulf states.

BODINETheir security, if Yemen were to fail, to utterly fail as a state, there could be refugee migrations. There could be increased extremism, possibly terrorism. And even though Yemen is not a GCC state, it is a neighbor and there is a sense that they have an obligation to help form a better future for practical, geopolitical and also moral reasons.

NNAMDIAbdulwahab Alkebsi you are a Yemeni-American. You came to this country to attend school. What is your take on Yemen's apparent transition? Does it cause you to be hopeful or fearful?

ALKEBSIKojo, that's such a good question. Actually, both. As a Yemeni-American, one cannot but feel a sense of pride at what these young men and women have been able to do. The transition in Yemen is not recent and Ambassador Bodine knows that very well. The talks amongst what you call the JMP, the Joint Meeting Parties, and the ruling party headed by President Ali Abdullah Saleh is not new. It's been going on for many, many years. And at least for the past two years, negotiations have been going on feverishly.

ALKEBSIWhat happened after the Arab spring in Tunisia and then the big momentum from Egypt is the strong wind behind the opposition sail to be able to push for stronger reforms, to be able to expand their demands, where before that, they were looking for maybe a bigger piece of the pie. Right now, they're pushing for a total change in regime, a total change in system and a total change on the system of governance itself.

ALKEBSISo yes, I am hopeful that that will lead Yemen to better things. However, at the same time, change is worrisome no matter what happens. So yes, I would be lying to you if I told you I'm guaranteeing you something positive will happen. It is still worrisome to a point.

NNAMDIWell, Barbara, here comes the fearful part for this country of some 24 million people. When we hear about Yemen, the first words brought up here are often haven for al-Qaeda and Saleh has been a partner with the U.S. in fighting al-Qaeda. Would our security partnership be in danger under a new Yemeni government?

BODINEWell, I think it's unclear. I will say that of the very fractured opposition that my friend Abdulwahab talked about, there are no elements that I would describe as Taliban-like. There's no element that is pro al-Qaeda. But even the best transition to a new governing structure is going to take some time to coalesce and become coherent. And I think the concern that a lot of people in our country have is that in the meantime, you've got a political paralysis. You have economic stagnation and you have a security vacuum and, in fact, in many ways, Yemen has had this for about two months now.

BODINEAnd the longer that goes on, the more running room it allows al-Qaeda. The security forces are distracted. The government is distracted. I do think in the long term, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is not a friend to Yemen. And so I think that we'll be able to reestablish some kind of security cooperation. But that lag period is very worrisome for us and, I think, for the Yemenis.

NNAMDIIn case you're just joining us, we're talking about the evolving situation in Yemen and inviting your calls at 800-433-8850. Our guests are Barbara Bodine, she's a former ambassador to Yemen. She's currently a lecturer at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Joining us in our Washington studio is Abdulwahab Alkebsi, the regional director for Africa and the Middle East at the Center for International and Private Enterprise. Questions or comments, 800-433-8850. Shoot an e-mail to kojo@wamu.org or send us a tweet at kojoshow.

NNAMDIYou were both in Yemen back in January. What was the atmosphere like a few months ago just before the Arab spring? What is the most significant change since then? Abdulwahab, I couldn't help noticing you talked about young people and it's my understanding that today the average age of people in Yemen is about 18 years old so there's obviously a very large population of young people.

ALKEBSIAnd that's where my sense of worry comes. Yes, I am worried about al-Qaeda, but al-Qaeda, in my opinion, in Yemen is a result of the hopelessness that is there today in Yemen. My friend also, Barbara, understands this very well. About 50 percent of the Yemenis are under the age of 18. Some estimates put about three-quarters of Yemenis under the age of 24. Unemployment amongst this group is at about 53 percent today, Kojo.

NNAMDIOverall employment is over 40 percent?

ALKEBSIExactly. But these young people with this hopelessness, it's what scares me. The demonstrations are mostly about political freedom, yes, but you hear it again and again a sense of exhaustion, a sense of fear for the future. In one sense, this is pushing them to al-Qaeda, but in another sense, this is a lot of what created the momentum today for the change.

ALKEBSIThey're asking for two things. They're asking for freedom and they're asking for their political freedom, but they're also asking for economic freedom that will lead to the dignity they're asking for. Dignity is what is so important for them. And dignity will not come to them without the good-paying respectful jobs that they need. If half of them are unemployed today, where will they go? Where will they get that dignity? That is the sense I got when I was there earlier and this is the sense I'm getting right now.

ALKEBSIThere is a change in their attitude today. They feel hope for the first time and in my opinion, they will continue to push for that until they see the change. And I am hoping and my organization is trying its best to make sure it happens, that that change happens through institutional reform that will guarantee better jobs for them. That's where we need to go.

NNAMDIBarbara Bodine, your observations in January?

BODINEYes. I was there the week that the Tunisian demonstrations were at their peak and I actually left Yemen the day that Ben Ali left Tunisia. And what I heard, meeting with a very broad range of Yemenis including a number of people who are very much involved in the demonstrations and people who are involved in the JMP, was this issue of employment and economics.

BODINEMy friend Abdulwahab is quite right. I think that this is the core issue, is if you do not solve -- if Yemen cannot solve and it cannot solve it on its own, it is going to need the GCC states. It is going to need us. If it cannot solve this economic and employment problem for this enormous, young population, then a change in government is not really going to bring any fundamental change.

BODINEThe political aspects of this upheaval are a reflection of the economic problems and until those economic problems are significantly addressed, we're not going to get at the other issues. And I think we would be remiss if we focus solely on the security issue and don't understand and become engaged on the mid-term and long-term economic and employment problems. That's what I was hearing.

NNAMDIAbdulwahab, talk about the internal politics for just one second. Who exactly is the opposition? What will it take to be sure that there won't be a breakdown or a power struggle if and when Saleh has left office?

ALKEBSIThere is no guarantee. The Joint Meetings Party is a very interesting coalition of political parties. It includes parties, as we tend to call them, on the far right. This is the Islah Party or the Party of Reform, basically an Islamist party with the core of its leadership from the Muslim Brotherhood, quite organized, quite strong and quite engaged in Yemeni mainstream politics. But it also includes, as the second biggest party in there, the Yemeni Socialist Party, which was basically semi-Communist party that ruled South Yemen for a very long time, in addition to other nationalist parties. So you can see they run the spectrum of political perspectives in Yemen.

ALKEBSIWhat they all have in common today is that they know what they do not want. They know they do not want this president and they want a change of regime. What will happen next afterwards? There are no guarantees. What we're hoping for is, first, a free and fair election that will create a representative government of the Yemeni people.

ALKEBSIBut in addition to that, we have to work very hard. And practitioners like me and the other organizations that are working in Yemen today want to ensure, hopefully, that the change will include what I call the institutional reforms that will guarantee a better life for the Yemenis. And this will help all Yemenis to move forward. Yemen is an excellent area, an excellent country when it comes to an investment climate.

ALKEBSIThere are a lot of Yemenis, for example, that are the major businessmen and women in the Gulf, the GCC countries you were talking about. However, the investment climate in Yemen today is not conducive to bring these investments in and create these jobs so they need to make these reforms to improve the lives of all Yemenis so it becomes a better place for all Yemenis, not just a competitive election for a bigger piece of the pie.

NNAMDIBarbara Bodine, Yemen, in its current state, is a relatively young country having only unified its north and south in the year 1990. But being there, how do Northern and Southern Yemenis relate to each other? And does it complicate chances for a stable future going forward, in your view?

BODINEThat's a harder question than it may sound. One element of Yemen that I think distinguishes it for an American audience from a place like Iraq or Afghanistan, which are the templates that get thrown up a lot, is that Yemen does not suffer from either ethnic divisions or fundamental sectarian divides as we saw in Iraq. There's a very strong Yemeni identity that allow the country to be unified in 1990. There are, however, some very strong regional differences.

BODINEI was explaining to somebody once, it's like talking about a Texan. To the outside world, all Texan's are united. You get to Texas and east and west become very different places. So there are some very fundamental regional differences. There are -- there is a sense in the south of having been marginalized and having been cut out from the benefits of the state. And there are some problems along the same lines in the far north of Yemen.

BODINESo you have some real regional tensions within a very strong sense of national identity. And so, as with so many other elements of Yemeni politics, you can be both very optimistic and very pessimistic at the same time.

NNAMDIGot to take a short break. If you have already called, stay on the line. When we come back, I'll get Abdulwahab's take on the same issue of north and south and other issues having to do with Yemen. The number's 800-433-8850, if you have comments or questions. Or you can go to our website, kojoshow.org, and join the conversation there. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

NNAMDIWelcome back to our conversation about Yemen. We're talking with Abdulwahab Alkebsi, the regional director for Africa and the Middle East at the Center for International and Private Enterprise. He joins us in our Washington studio. Joining us from studios at Princeton University is Barbara Bodine, former ambassador to Yemen, currently a lecturer at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

NNAMDIBefore I go to the telephones, the -- we talked a little bit about the opposition. And we didn't get a chance to have you talk, Abdulwahab, about the north and south tensions that Barbara Bodine was describing.

ALKEBSIThe south and north tensions are real, Kojo. But if I can go just a little back in history. Yemen, as you said, was unified politically in 1990. But the people had been one much, much earlier than that. There was no sense of difference between the peoples of the north and the south. Actually, the south part of northern Yemen has more common with the southerners than the northern parts of north Yemen. So there wasn't a major difference between the countries when it comes to the people.

ALKEBSIIn 1990, they were unified politically. In 1994, because of a succession movement in the south, Yemen was unified militarily. But because of the Arab spring and what's going right now, a very interesting phenomena right now is coming back, beautification of the Yemeni people again. Because the southern people -- and I'm from the north originally by the way, but I can tell you that the southerners were not treated well after the unification. But right now there's a sense of reunification of the people in Yemen.

ALKEBSIIf you allow me just one more minute, Kojo.

NNAMDISure.

ALKEBSITo talk about one more thing. We also talk about religious tensions right now. The rebellion was called, The Rebellion in the North or the Houthi group, is seen as a religious manifestation of the differences in Yemen. When actually it is not, the Yemeni people were historically divided into two sects, they're all Muslims, basically all Muslims, virtually all. There was the Zaydi sect in the north, which is a Shi'a tradition, and the Shafa'i sect in the south, which is a Sunni. The Shafa'i is the closest to the Shi'a amongst the Sunni sects and the Zaydi is the closest to the Shi'a in the Sunni sect. So there wasn't much difference between them.

ALKEBSIThe differences are political and the differences are because of the lack of development in the north and the lack of development of the south. They're asking for their rights to development. That's basically what it is.

NNAMDIWe have a number of callers. I'll start -- Barbara, you wanted to say.

BODINEI just wanted to make just one little additional point. I don't fundamentally disagree, this Arab spring has unified the country, as Abdulwahab has described. But that question of economic development of the distribution of basic services, that is going to remain the day after the transition. And it's not going to be easy for any government to satisfy that. And so I would say these differences have been put aside because of this political upheaval, but they have not been solved or gone away.

NNAMDII'll get to that in a second. But first, to the telephones starting with Eddie in Baltimore, Md. Eddie, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

EDDIEThank you, Kojo, for a great show. I'd like to ask your guests of the significance of Dubai and its economic development and its ability to provide jobs to the -- those that are from the Emirate and those that are really from the Arab world and from East Africa, traveling to Dubai for work? And how did that affect the -- and really looking internally to say, hey, we -- you know, we're not doing very good here. I mean, compared to Dubai and compared to Qatar, they're making advances and they were where we are -- were maybe 20 or 30 years ago, but now I'm making progress. I'd like to know what are your thoughts on that?

NNAMDIBoth of our guests have thoughts on that. First you, Abdulwahab.

ALKEBSIIt's, Eddie, that's a very interesting question. Now, the natural wealth is just very different between the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in one hand and Yemen in the other. However, you bring a very important point. Dubai is an economy based on the Port -- on the Port of Dubai. While the Port of Aden is a lot more accessible, a lot -- I understand naturally conducive to doing business. But it's the corruption and the lack of development of education of the Yemeni people that are able to service that Port of Aden.

ALKEBSISo, yes, Aden -- the Port of Aden could be a major source of income, a major source of employment for Yemeni's and could alleviate a lot of these problems. I don't know if Barbara agrees with that.

BODINEI absolutely agree that if there's an economic future to Yemen, it's at Aden Port. You really cannot develop that country if you don't have that port. And the port could drive it -- the caller may also be referring to -- before the 1990s, a lot of Yemeni's worked in the Gulf, primarily as construction workers, unskilled workers. And the Yemeni economy was supported by the remittances. For a whole variety of reasons, the Yemeni workers did not have that kind of presence in the GCC states anymore.

BODINEWhich is a kind of a double whammy on the Yemeni economy that both the remittances dried up and because the workers came home, the unemployment went up. When I was there in January, a lot of Yemeni's were talking about getting Yemeni workers back into the GCC states. And this has been a constant topic of conversation between Yemen and the council. The -- one of the problems is that the way that Gulf states now do their contract labor is through middle men.

BODINEAnd Yemeni workers tend to operate individually. And so Yemen would also need to find a way to better organize, professionalize and institutionalize their -- one of their great natural resources, which is their labor force.

NNAMDIBarbara Bodine, when she mentions the GCC states, she's talking about the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait. We move...

ALKEBSIKojo?

NNAMDIYes.

ALKEBSICan I just add that...

NNAMDISure.

ALKEBSI...because it's a subject that very dear to my heart. CIPE, the relation I work with, addressed this issue of -- I mean, the friends of Yemen countries agreed to bring in one million Yemeni laborers to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. But the problem -- one of the problems, at least, was that the Yemeni travel documents, the passports, were not credible enough to be able to have these Yemeni laborers go to these countries because any Yemeni knows, he can go and pay (unintelligible) about $20 and get that document.

ALKEBSISo it created that sense of distrust in these documents and where we documented that in a film we called, "Destructive Beast," about the effect -- the destructive effect of corruption, Yemeni economy, one aspect with this passport and the IDs. And now, we were working before the revolution broke out on trying to alleviate that and to train some of the ministry employees. We know training is not going to fix it. It's a much deeper issue than that.

ALKEBSIBut that's one aspect of the inability of Yemenis to go and work in the Gulf.

NNAMDIWe move on to Nabila in Washington, D.C. You're on the air. Go ahead, please, Nabila.

NABILAHi, Kojo. My question is regarding the terrorism act, for both guests. My understanding is the actually the action of terrorism is a retaliation for politic and economic (word?) Germany, that west and U.S.A. Also it is a frustration for their corrupt state leaders who were unable to advance their economy. So don't you think that this movement will contain -- if successful, will contain the anger and the frustration of a terrorism attack?

NNAMDIFirst you, Barbara Bodine.

BODINENo, I don't. Yes, there are many roots to terrorism, although I don't think that there's any justification or rational for it. But, I think, we need to understand that al-Qaida and the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, which operates out of Yemen, has an agenda that ranges far beyond Yemen. Their targets, their mission is aimed at the Gulf states. It's aimed at the United States. And they're able to take advantage of the vacuum along the periphery of Yemen. But they are not responding nor are their roots directly related to the situation in Yemen.

BODINEThose conditions allow them to operate. But they are not the roots of it or why AQAP is in existence in the first place. So, I think, I've heard from some others that, in fact, Yemeni involved in the demonstrations that within three months of a new government, AQAP, will wither and go away. And, I think, that's a charming thought, but I think it's rather naïve.

NNAMDIAbdulwahab.

ALKEBSIYes, Barbara and I were at the same conference and she heard me ask that question, along the same lines. And I agree completely with Barbara. I just want to add to it, one caveat. Al-Qaida will be there until -- we need to be able to deal with al-Qaida from a plan that has multiple approaches. One of -- only one of the approaches is ideological. Only one of the approaches. And if the Yemeni people are able to express themselves better, if the Yemeni people are able to engage in policy making in their country and not just be not heard of.

ALKEBSISo, in my opinion, a real democracy in Yemen, at least democratically form in Yemen, an institutional building Yemen, will at least decrease the ideological advantage of -- that Qatar has today.

NNAMDIThank you very much for your call, Nabila. But they also say, all politics is local, and Ali Abdullah Saleh has been Yemen's President for over 30 years. And the Gulf Cooperation Council has recommended that Saleh hand over power to his Vice President, Abdurabu Mansur Hadi. Who is this gentleman and how would his Presidency change the U.S. relationship with Yemen, Barbara Bodine?

BODINEWell, first, there are several plans on the table. And the one that I am aware of is the most recent one, is that the transition would actually go to the deputy Prime Minister al-Alimi. And, I think, for a number of reasons. Mansur Hadi is -- he is a southerner. He's military. But I think he is seen by the opposition -- I think their view of him is that he's something of a hardliner. Alimi has a -- was the minister of interior. He's worked on security issues. He's also been the minister of local administration.

BODINEAnd my understanding is that the conversation now is, if there is a transition, and there is a large if, if there is a transition, it may be to the deputy prime minister instead of directly to the vice president.

NNAMDIYour turn, Abdulwahab.

ALKEBSIYes. As Madam Ambassador said, this is the plan de jour. We will hear, I'm sure, as we move forward, of other plans. But the Gulf Cooperation Council's initiative reportedly includes a plan to transfer power -- to transfer power, not yet for the resignation of the President. But the transfer of power and vaguely says to a vice president. We don't know who that vice president will be. So as Barbara articulated, it could be one of the stories we heard, one of the reports is that Rashad al-Alimi will be appointed as vice president and then Rashad al-Alimi would become...

BODINERight.

ALKEBSI...the president. What's important, and maybe even more important than who becomes the next president, is that there will be the formation of a new government that is lead by the opposition. That's number one, Kojo. That will be a government and some of the powers will be transferred to that government. And then second, they will be working toward a rapid schedule for fair and free elections for the next president and the next parliament and to develop a new constitution.

ALKEBSISo, yeah, it's -- there are lots of plans being thrown around. The meeting of the nation security council is -- U.N. Security Council, is also extremely important and we'll hear other plans. Another important point of difference between the opposition and the President right now, and the Gulf Cooperation Council is in the middle of this, is what the GCC is calling for is a transfer of power followed by a resignation within a timeframe. What the opposition is calling for is no resignation right now.

ALKEBSIThey don't want a transfer of power before resignation. They want Ali Abdullah Salah out first.

NNAMDIBarbara Bodine, a bias can be inferred from my previous question when I said, how would his Presidency change the U.S. relationship with Yemen. To clear that up, how do we get beyond the image of Yemen we currently have? Is there an opportunity here to move past Yemen as just a strategic U.S. interest or security concern?

BODINEI think that's an excellent question. We do tend to see Yemen through a very narrow optic. And I think that it is -- it has informed our policy far too narrowly. Perhaps as Americans see these, not just young Yemenis, but a very broad cross section of Yemenis demanding their political rights, demanding a more open society, asking for the kind of economic opportunities that all of us feel are fundamental, that we will begin to see Yemenis more three dimensionally than we have in the past. And hopefully, that will help us come up with a more nuance, long-term approach.

BODINESo in this sense, perhaps, the Yemeni demonstrations are Yemen's best advertisement on what is the complexity of a fascinating country that is far more than AQAP.

NNAMDIAnd finally, for you, Abdulwahab, in order to provide a stable base for democracy in Yemen, you mentioned this earlier corruption problems need to be dealt with. What are the key ways that that can be accomplished?

ALKEBSIOh, I've left a film for you here, Kojo. It's called, "Destructive Beast," and it'll advertise...

BODINEThis is radio, Abdulwahab.

ALKEBSIYes, yes. They're for him to see.

NNAMDIBut I will be taking that film to see it.

ALKEBSIYes. And we try to address a few -- a number of the issues that face Yemeni citizens, one of them -- I'm sure we don't have time to go through all of it. But one of them is what small businesses right now are facing. For example, for a small businessman or woman to go and pay taxes, they have to bribe the person who is at the other side receiving the tax. Otherwise, they won't take that tax and otherwise, their businesses will be shut. And the arbitrary way of implementing these regulations is also unfair.

ALKEBSIAny person who works for a municipality can go to that small business and just implement that law that they -- they way they see it, okay? This fire hydrant is not their properly, this sign is not put their properly, so they shut -- they shut them down. And this is only one aspect. The other aspect is property rights. We know of people that have been fighting for their property rights for 20 and 30 years. Who's going to invest in a place if you have to dispute a piece of land for the next 20 or 30 years?

ALKEBSISo the approach to fighting corruption is not just about naming and shaming, and there's plenty of it. We can identify a lot of corrupt people. But if you don't change the institutions that make corruption more conducive, you will not be able to address it. And I want to emphasize the availability of tremendous funds, billions of dollars outside by Yemeni business men who live in Saudi Arabia, who live in the UAE, who live in Qatar, who will be able to come back and invest if the investment climate is conducive to do it.

NNAMDIAbdulwahab Alkebsi is the regional director for Africa and the Middle East at the Center for International and Private Enterprise which encourages democracy through private entrepreneurship. Thank you so much for joining us.

ALKEBSIIt's truly my pleasure.

NNAMDIBarbara Bodine is a former ambassador to Yemen. She's currently a lecturer at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Barbara Bodine, thank you for joining us.

BODINEMy pleasure. Thank you very much.

NNAMDIWe're gonna take a short break. When we come back, trying to understand redistricting in Virginia and what's going on with it since the governor vetoed the plan coming from the General Assembly. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.