MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast a noted scholar dies in the weekend his new book about Malcolm X comes out on the same weekend of the anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King. We'll talk about all of the above. But, first, a popular musician who appealed to young people and the poor has won the run-off to become Haiti's next president. In election results announced yesterday, Michel Martelly, known to fans of his carnival act as "Sweet Mickey," beat former first lady Mirlande Manigat by a margin of 3-1. Martelly will take office in May, succeeding Rene Preval as president of the island nation.

MR. KOJO NNAMDITechnically, the vote count must still be finalized later this month, but jubilant Haitians began celebrating as soon as the initial results were released. Martelly campaigned as an outsider who would speed the pace of change in Haiti. But the president-elect faces the daunting task of rebuilding an already poor country that was ravaged by an earthquake and weakened by a cholera outbreak. Joining us to discuss the latest results is Johanna Mendelson-Forman, senior associate with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. She accompanied us to Haiti last year when we took a trip there. Johanna, thank you for joining us.

MS. JOHANNA MENDELSON-FORMANHi, Kojo. How are you?

NNAMDII am well. Also joining us by phone from Haiti is Sebastian Walker who is the Haiti-based correspondent of Al Jazeera -- Al Jazeera being the only broadcaster to have kept a bureau in Haiti following the earthquake. Sebastian Walker, thank you for joining us.

MR. SEBASTIAN WALKERThanks for having me.

NNAMDISebastian, I'll start with you. What's going on in Port-au-Prince right now? What's the reaction to the news that Michel Martelly will be Haiti's next president?

WALKERWell, it's pretty quiet really. I mean one of the main concerns here was obviously the security situation on the streets. This has obviously been a very controversial process from start to finish. And, you know, we really had weeks and months of political crisis here with these results signifying some kind of end for that. So there was speculation that, you know, whatever the result was, there could be some kind of backlash on the streets, but really very quiet. I mean, as soon as the results were announced yesterday evening, we could actually hear cheers going up and even gunfire echoing around Port-au-Prince.

WALKERIt was a very spontaneous celebration in, obviously, the support for Mr. Martelly getting out into the street and very, very quickly celebrating. We've been out and about in the camps today, just in the capital itself, speaking to residents and, you know, trying to see how this result has gone down. And it really seems to be pretty optimistic. A lot of people think Martelly represents a break from the status quo here. Not everyone voted. Obviously, one of the main questions is the very low turnout, but certainly some kind of limited optimism at least for somebody who really represents some kind of change from the kind of political status quo here in Haiti.

NNAMDIJohanna Mendelson-Forman, tell us a little bit more about 50-year-old Michel Martelly. Until he decided to run for office, it's my understanding he was best known for his sometimes raunchy carnival act.

MENDELSON-FORMANWell, he indeed is an entertainer, but it isn't the first time we've seen a politician come from the entertaining class. He's also an elite. He comes from a wealthy family. He has, you know, been a privileged part of that community, and he's certainly quite an intelligent, attractive man. I think what's interesting is he, in many ways, became a surrogate for the other entertainer who wanted to run for office -- Wyclef Jean, the singer who is best known in the United States as a former member of the Fugees. And what Martelly gained in this election is the ability and support that Wyclef Jean was able to place on his shoulders when he was denied the right to run for president.

NNAMDI800-433-8850 is the number to call if you have questions or comments about what's going on in Haiti. Johanna, did Wyclef Jean actually endorse Michel Martelly?

MENDELSON-FORMANYes, at the end he did. He was supportive of him. And, I think, what's interesting is -- I was there during the election -- and the turnout was a very young turnout. And I think that, as our colleague in Port-au-Prince said, not only is it a change in political attitude, but it's a generational change. And I think many of the things that people feared that would come to pass in many ways didn't because the population, which is half under age 25, really reflected a need to vote for someone more aligned with the kinds of vision and Haiti that they want to see.

NNAMDISebastian Walker, it is our understanding that Michel Martelly was supposed to be holding a press conference today. Has that taken place as yet?

WALKERWe do believe it has taken place earlier today. He was going to be essentially talking about, you know, how the campaign is now going to start, you know, making plans for the future. I mean, I think we should also remember, at this point, these are only the preliminary results. There is going to be a period of contestation when his rival candidate, Mirlande Manigat, can launch an appeal against these results. And, you know, we did see the same kinds of problems again in the second round that were in the first round of voting with irregularities at voting centers around the country. So it's not -- I think we should be careful about assuming that Martelly will be declared the outright victor.

WALKERIt certainly is a big majority that he seems to have won, and it seems very likely that it will be confirmed. But we won't know the final results until around April the 16th and whether Martelly will indeed be president.

NNAMDIIndeed, Sebastian, the Miami Herald reported yesterday that 1700 tally sheets were tossed out of the final vote count. How does that affect the eventual result of this election? And what are people saying about possible voter fraud in this runoff?

WALKERWell, I mean, it's really -- as I said earlier -- marred the whole process. There were huge question marks from the very beginning with the exclusion of one of the major political parties here -- Fanmi Lavalas -- from the entire process. And if you think about the amount of people who actually bothered to go and cast a ballot on Election Day, it's less than a quarter of the electorate that even registered their vote. So out of those two-thirds voters for Martelly -- but, if you're talking nationwide in terms of, you know, the percentage of the electorate who actually voted for him, it's only probably going to be around 15 percent.

WALKERSo it's not exactly a widespread popular mandate, and I think those question marks about the irregularities that took place, the way that, you know, the international community has also played a very close role in the whole process, disqualifying the government candidates back in January, has raised a lot of questions which could present a problem for Martelly if and when he does finally take office.

MENDELSON-FORMANYeah, I don't share your view, actually. This is Johanna.

NNAMDIGo ahead, Johanna.

MENDELSON-FORMANI think that the election runoffs were very clean because there had been a lot of lessons learned from the first round where there had been a tremendous amount of irregularities. In fact, many polls closed down by noon. So it's not even clear, you know, in the three front runners that ultimately wound up to be two, how this happened. But I also think that, you know, the fact that the process that was observed was a very good process for a country that had just suffered an earthquake, losing, you know, hundreds of thousands of people. It's amazing that they were able to pull off this in the short time.

MENDELSON-FORMANNow, I think there are issues that Martelly will have to overcome, regardless of whether there were allegations of fraud. But if one reads the OAS press release, I mean, some of the things that were done in the counting in the second round were to overcome infirmities discovered in the first, so it's good that they found these. But when you have a 3-1 margin, it's kind of hard to contest, even with only 1700 ballots thrown out, that Martelly hasn't won.

NNAMDIRegardless of how this turns out, this has been a hard-fought election that's played out over many months. But winning the presidency of Haiti seems, in some ways, like an unenviable prize because leading Haiti out of its devastation and poverty is a daunting task. First you, Johanna.

MENDELSON-FORMANWell, I think that whoever wins -- and I think we know Martelly is, at least on this first run, the winner -- is going to have to deal with overwhelming problems, but he comes in it with an advantage that President Preval did not. He has $10 billion worth of goodwill and money from the donor community to spend, and it's his job to lose that credibility. So my sense is, while it's an overwhelming task he has to rebuild the government, the civil service that by his being willing to form a government and to change the way people behave, or at least to deal with this, is going to be a step forward. He does face a legislature, though, that is extraordinarily divided, and that will create problems that he is going to have to figure out as a politician how to work with.

NNAMDISebastian Walker, I want to get back to your point, that essentially it ain't over till it's over and the fact that the Lavalas Party was excluded could be significant. Two of Haiti's past leaders have returned from exile and are now back in the country, former dictator Jean-Claude or "Baby Doc" Duvalier and, I guess, more importantly to this conversation, former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. He has apparently been maintaining a low profile. But what have you been seeing on the streets of Haiti and Port-au-Prince that could suggest that the presence of Jean-Bertrand Aristide is likely to give greater life to Lavalas and could be a factor in how the ruling in this election goes through?

WALKERWell, absolutely, this is the big unanswered question, and, I think, in some respects, all eyes are now on Aristide and what he is going to say. He's remained pretty silent ever since his dramatic return from exile, and I think what he says to his supporters, that very popular Lavalas movement is certainly very divided but still retains a huge amount of popularity, especially amongst the poor sectors of the population. He's going to be crucial here. I mean, even this morning when we were going around and asking residents of the camps who had actually gone out and voted for Martelly what they thought about Aristide's presence here, there was, you know, accounts in the minds of the people we were speaking to that whatever Aristide says is going to be hugely significant.

WALKERThey were saying that, you know -- that, first and foremost, they are Aristide supporters. They might be voting for Martelly, but I think if there is some kind of message from Aristide who is, in some respects, at odds with Martelly -- Martelly certainly declared his opposition to Aristide in the past. This could play well on the streets. I think it's very early to say that this is a protest that has been (word?) in the Haiti canal, really look ahead in the future to some kind of viable government. Just to respond to Johanna's point about the selection of Martelly and this majority that he has, I mean, this is a candidate who didn't make the initial selection. So he gets in the second round runoff.

WALKERIt was only after heavy international pressure with a really unprecedented process of correcting results from an election, which is widely seen here to be totally flawed, that Martelly is even allowed to contest the second round. So I think those question marks and the amount of people who actually turned out to vote -- it's something like 700,000 people nationwide, I think, actually voted for Martelly -- it's really not universally representative of the population here. And what we've been hearing all year is widespread disillusionment with the political process here, and many people really see this election as more of a sideshow that's not going to change their daily lives. I think there's certainly a great deal of skepticism still, and I think, at this point, it's a bit early to say that this is going to now be a kind of smooth transition to power. I think (unintelligible).

NNAMDIBut, I guess, Sebastian Walker -- and I'll put this question to Johanna Mendelson-Forman first and then put it back to you -- we've been hearing a great deal about the level of disgruntlement and dissatisfaction among Lavalas supporters. But, Johanna Mendelson-Forman, I'll start with you first. What's the viable alternative?

MENDELSON-FORMANWell, I mean, I share Sebastian's, you know, question about how people feel. They've been disappointed time and time again, not only by the present government but by -- starting with Aristide when he was the first democratically-elected Haitian that had made it into history by being a President under the circumstances. I think it's, to anybody who wins an election goal, to prove to the citizens who've been victimized for centuries about how they are going to act to incorporate them into the decision-making process and not let a tiny elite of wealthy people run the country as they see fit. And that's the challenge. Now, if Martelly takes up this mantel and really becomes a populist in the sense of really bringing people in, all credit to him, but the disillusionment is there. I want to make one other point.

MENDELSON-FORMANHalf of Haiti's population is under 25. They do not remember Aristide except when they were teens. I think Aristide has tremendous sway and -- don't get me wrong -- but I do believe he's now a historic figure rather than a leader who can move people forward. And I don't really -- the fact that Martelly's campaign sent out hundreds of thousands of text messages before the election to get people to the polls, and the youth of the voters that I saw were just overwhelming. So maybe this is a different day. And Aristide will have his role, but it may have to be in a compromise with the people who've won.

NNAMDIAnd, Sebastian Walker, the same question to you. What is the viable alternative? Because it seems to me that, in the wake of the earthquake, the cholera epidemic and the Renee Preval government not necessarily moving with any sense of dispatch about what's to be done in Haiti, what would be the alternative if this government is rejected as a result of street demonstrations or other organizations, more chaos?

WALKERWell, certainly, yes. I think it's definitely true to say that the alternatives are pretty limited. This is, you know -- the post-earthquake situation here in Haiti is so chaotic that there is, you know, millions of dollars of reconstruction contracts that are still on hold. And there are certainly a ground, sort of, opinion, calling for some kind of organization in this protest to actually start. One of the reasons for the slow progress -- certainly international figures say -- is the fact that there isn't a viable government, deal makers -- deals for the reconstruction contracts (word?). So, certainly, the alternative -- I mean, the protestors that we saw back in December who were very angry about what happened on voting day, they were calling for the election to be just scrapped and held again.

WALKERThere's been a lot of opposition to that, certainly in the international community and just saying that, you -- needs to be some kind of viable president in place to kind of get things started. I think Johanna does make some very good points about the modern day Lavalas movement. It's certainly very divided, and it's very unpredictable in terms of how Aristide's return will play out. There are supporters here who've been waiting for this for seven years. And we were told, you know, that if Aristide comes back, I mean, this huge (unintelligible) supporters. When it actually happened, there was, you know, not as many people in the streets as some were expecting.

WALKERAnd, I think, the fact that the point Johanna makes about the very young age that most of the Haitians (unintelligible) is now, (unintelligible). Maybe, you know, things have moved on, and in some respects there could be questions as to how significant the Lavalas movement will be now, especially with a new president who has been opposed to Aristide in the past. But these are unanswered questions, and it's a very interesting point we're at now. Before Aristide actually says anything, it's very hard to tell just how much strength the movement still has.

NNAMDIGot to take a short break. When we come back, we'll continue this conversation about the early results -- the preliminary results of Haiti's runoff election. If you have questions or comments, 800-433-8850 is the number to call. Or you can go to our website, kojoshow.org. Ask your questions there. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

NNAMDIWelcome back. We're talking about the preliminary results of Haiti's runoff election which shows the candidate Michele Martelly has won and could be the next president of Haiti if those results are ultimately finalized. We're talking with Johanna Mendelson-Forman. She joins us by telephone in Washington. She's a senior associate with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Joining us by telephone from Haiti is Sebastian Walker. He is the Haiti-based correspondent of Al Jazeera. Sebastian Walker, do we know about how Mirlande Manigat supporters are feeling or, more specifically, what they are doing? Who are the people who are disappointed by her loss? And what are they saying or doing right now in Haiti?

WALKERSo we were actually due to attending a conference this morning, a press conference by Mirlande Manigat. She's sort of been postponed, so we haven't heard yet from the candidate. I mean, I think, it's going to be pretty difficult for her to really contest these results given the margins of the preliminary results. And there is a period of several days where they can launch an appeal, and there are certainly grounds for that. There were the same kinds of irregularities that took place in November. Certainly, things went more smoothly. But there's certainly grounds for appealing the results, but I think it's pretty unlikely that there would be much kind of momentum in trying to overturn this very large majority Martelly has won at this stage.

WALKERSo I think those most disappointed will be those supporters in Mirlande Manigat. Certainly, I mean, we were wondering this morning whether there would be some kind of demonstration in the streets or some gathering of her supporters. We haven't really seen much of that at all, but, I think, this really plays into the bigger question about the election itself. This is -- you know, from our experience over the months since this started, many people have bigger priorities than politics. And a lot of residents in these camps don't really see an election as having much to do with them. And, I think, that's reflected by the very low turnout.

WALKERNot many people went and voted here -- less than a quarter of the electorates -- and I think this is really going to raise some of the biggest questions and, you know, force people to kind of think about just how legitimate this whole next government might be. So, certainly, there hasn't been the kind of outcry that many were fearing on the streets if Martelly wasn't announced. The expectation was that he would win and that, if that didn't happen in the preliminary results, then there would be some kind of demonstration or protests. But...

NNAMDIOkay.

MENDELSON-FORMANYeah.

WALKER...there's supporters of Martelly at this point does seem to be bringing calm to the streets.

NNAMDIJohanna Mendelson-Forman...

MENDELSON-FORMANYes.

NNAMDI...what do we know about Mirlande Manigat supporters? What segment of Haitian society would she represent?

MENDELSON-FORMANYou know, she's a former first lady. She has good close ties to the business interests. In fact, I understand that the only part of the country where she did prevail was, in a part, controlled by some of her colleagues in the legislature in the northeast. But Manigat -- Mirlande Manigat was counting on some coattail from Aristide at the very end. And the graffiti around Port-au-Prince was demonstrated by the fact that people said, vote for Mama and you get Papa, meaning Aristide. And I think she really misread the fact that Aristide could give her a little lift at the end, and maybe his late arrival would've -- you know, is a reason for that. But I do believe that she represents an electorate who's under 25 -- a figure of the past.

MENDELSON-FORMANAnd I believe she's a very smart and educated woman who will take her loss as any democrat would and move on as the dean of the school that she heads and also to be a positive figure in Haitian politics. It's good to have a strong woman leader who is respected. But I don't think that she gained anything by the age of the electorate and, moreover, I think, that she misread the value that an Aristide endorsement might have given her, given how calm things have been and what a footnote he was, in fact, to this whole process.

NNAMDIJohanna...

MENDELSON-FORMANAnd I want to -- yeah, can I just say one thing?

NNAMDIPlease.

MENDELSON-FORMANThis is a country that has lost 300,000 people and have a million and a half people homeless. The saddest thing to see on the voter lists were all the names of people who didn't vote, many of whom were killed, and cleaning those lists are hard. So I don't know, when we talk about turnout, as low as it was, that it wasn't, in fact, impacted by a devastating event.

NNAMDIHaitians have chosen a popular musician with no experience in government to lead the country at what may be the most difficult time in its history. If these preliminary results, in fact, turn out to be correct, Johanna, starting with you, what sort of government do you expect to see from Michele Martelly?

MENDELSON-FORMANWell, I think, he has good advisors, and he is a shrewd man. If he'll take the advice of people who are smart, if he'll work together with Haitians and his colleagues from the international community and use this to the advantage, the support that he's getting from so many quarters, he can become a real leader. I don't think it's hard. I've been told by people who've worked with him, that anything that he's been asked to do from learning in the political process, he's done well. And I'm going to have to take that on the word that he will make some changes that can move the country forward.

NNAMDIBack to these results, Sebastian Walker, the preliminary election results were originally supposed to released -- to be released on March 31st, almost a week ago. How do you explain about four days -- how do you explain the four-day delay?

WALKERWell, the delay withhold was because of the irregularities that the organizers had to, you know, go back over some ballots and just make sure that the problems that took place on voting day weren't large enough to obscure the results of the vote. Announced, also Monday, (unintelligible) been a conclusion that, you know, while there were certain irregularities, their rule process was sound. That's certainly the view of Haiti's electoral council. It's actually been backed up by a statement from the U.S. Embassy, released late yesterday, saying -- well, acknowledging that there were irregularities but saying that in the main -- you know, this problem was much reduced in the second round.

WALKERSo that's why the results were delayed. And, I think, in this stage, you know, it does seem to us, for most people I'm talking to, that these results could stand and be the final results when they're announced April 16. It would be a surprise at this point if there was going to be another, you know, torturous investigation that would change the results and lead to weeks of more political crisis. That certainly caused a lot of problems in Haiti. You know, the problems back in November lead to a very difficult situation on the streets. And, I think, most people now, even amongst the electorate, really just want this kind of to be over. So, I think, these results could well reflect the eventual winner of this -- the delay was because of the same kinds of problems that we witnessed in the first run.

NNAMDIAnd, finally, Johanna Mendelson-Forman, if the results of this election are confirmed on April 16 and the winner takes office without further dispute, this new president will be the first in Haiti's history to take office in a non-violent transfer of power from one elected president to another. How significant is that for Haiti?

MENDELSON-FORMANWell, actually, I mean, Aristide took office in '91 in a non-violent transfer of power. It's just that the U.S. was not particularly happy with his victory, but it was a clean process. But I do think it's an important symbol in an age, after having succumbed to the terrible natural disaster, to have a smooth transition. And, now, the challenge will be, can you be able, as a leader, to make people feel like citizens? Haitians have always survived on their own, and his biggest challenge will be to get people to believe again that the role of government and the presence of government can be positive and that Haiti doesn't have to remain a nation of NGOs but a people with a leader that they can have confidence in and demonstrates good will.

NNAMDIJohanna Mendelson-Forman is senior associate with the Americas Program from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Johanna, thank you for joining us.

MENDELSON-FORMANThank you, Kojo.

NNAMDISebastian Walker is Haiti-based correspondent for Al Jazeera, the only international broadcaster to have kept a bureau in Haiti following the earthquake. Sebastian Walker, thank you for joining us.

WALKERThanks for having me.

NNAMDIWe're going to take a short break. When we come back, we'll be talking about Manning Marable, the academic who died over the weekend whose new book on Malcolm X, with new revelations about Malcolm X's assassination, came out just this Monday on the anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.