The Arab League has asked the United Nations to impose a no-fly zone over Libya, and NATO ministers are considering the issue this week. But officials in the West disagree over whether a no-fly zone would halt Gadhafi’s assault on his people. As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton travels to the region, we explore what’s happening on the ground there and what lies ahead.

Guests

  • Sean Carberry Senior Correspondent, America Abroad Media
  • Robert Danin Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa, Council on Foreign Relations

Transcript

  • 13:06:40

    MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, free speech on the college campus as 11 students at UC Irvine in California face criminal charges for allegedly disrupting a speech. But first, on Saturday, the world's leading Arab organization took a bold step against one of its own members.

  • 13:07:15

    MR. KOJO NNAMDIThe Arab League asked the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone over Libya as quickly as possible and recognize the rebel movement that trying to topple the government of Libyan leader, Moammar Gadhafi. But officials and the rest remain divided over the idea of a no-fly zone. Some say the U.S. and its allies must step in to avoid a massacre like those in the Balkans and Rwanda.

  • 13:07:40

    MR. KOJO NNAMDIBut others worry about getting mired in another military operation with no clear end. Joining us to discuss, this is Robert Danin, he is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa and the Council on Foreign Relations. He joins us by telephone in Washington. Robert Danin, thank you for joining us.

  • 13:08:01

    MR. ROBERT DANINPleasure to be with you.

  • 13:08:03

    NNAMDIAnd joining us by telephone from Bahrain is Sean Carberry, senior correspondent with America Abroad Media. Sean, thank you for joining us.

  • 13:08:13

    MR. SEAN CARBERRYGood to be with you, Kojo.

  • 13:08:14

    NNAMDISean, you were in Benghazi last week in the eastern part of Libya, the stronghold of the rebels. What was the mood there?

  • 13:08:23

    CARBERRYAt the time I was there, it was actually fairly exuberant. It was at the point where they'd been making fairly steady progress pushing the front line farther to the west, farther towards Tripoli and there were groups of people who were gathering in Benghazi on a regular basis, loading up in trucks and driving off to volunteer to go fight and to support the fighters.

  • 13:08:50

    CARBERRYSo there was a feeling, at that point, that things were moving in their direction and they had built up some momentum. But at the same time, a recognition that it was a tough fight and quite a number of people actually at that point were calling already for a no-fly zone to be enforced.

  • 13:09:10

    NNAMDIAnd, of course, a lot of things have changed since then, usually for the worse for the rebels. But will the Arab league's call for a no-fly zone change the dynamics of what's happening on the ground in Libya, do you think?

  • 13:09:24

    CARBERRYIt's difficult to assess that because even when I was there and talking to people who were calling for a no-fly zone, and I would press them on what would that do, how would that change the dynamics of the fight for them, a lot of people weren't really certain exactly what that would do because they were still a very, kind of, ad hoc military force.

  • 13:09:49

    CARBERRYMost of what they had had been either abandoned by the army or, you know, old equipment that they had gotten their hands on so they weren't particularly well trained, organized or equipped. They're very passionate, but a lot of the fight was happening on the ground and so, you know, it wasn't clear what a no-fly zone would do and -- but again, there was a strong call for it and a feeling that that would help continue to tip things in their favor.

  • 13:10:19

    CARBERRYIn terms of what this call is doing right now, it's tough to say. Because the fight has turned against them so heavily that there's a very bleak sense coming out of people, from what I've been getting at this point.

  • 13:10:31

    NNAMDIIf you have questions or comments for us, should the U.S. participate in imposing a no-fly zone in Libya or not? Should there even be no-fly zone in Libya or not? Call us at 800-433-8850 or go to our website, kojoshow.org. Robert Danin, in terms of the Arab league call on the United Nations to impose that no-fly zone over Libya, will that give new momentum to the discussions in the West about whether or not this is a good idea?

  • 13:11:01

    DANINAbsolutely. I think what has happened at the Arab League is incredibly significant. Even when Saddam Hussein invaded all of Kuwait, the Arab League was unwilling to meet the challenge and was extremely divided. On the weekend, what we saw was a unanimous decision by the Arab League, calling on the international community to get involved.

  • 13:11:23

    DANINNow, we've seen that the West has been rather reluctant to do so. France and Britain have been pushing for it, other members of NATO have been reluctant. President Obama is hardly enthusiastic, but one of the reasons has been that the sense is you can't get a resolution in the Security Council. But now that the Arabs themselves are calling for it, I think it makes it a lot harder for even the Russians and the Chinese to oppose it in the way they had been doing.

  • 13:11:51

    NNAMDISean, how do the Libyan rebels feel about the world's response to their situation so far? Are they or were they when you were last there, hopeful that western assistance would come through for them?

  • 13:12:03

    CARBERRYWell, it's interesting. There was a very clear distinction that they made. They wanted air support, they wanted a no-fly zone, but they did not want a single foreign troop on the ground there, especially an American troop. There signs all over in Benghazi that said no foreign intervention.

  • 13:12:21

    CARBERRYPeople wearing t-shirts that said things like that. So their feeling was that this was their fight on the ground, but they wanted a little help in the air to try to help level the playing field to take the Gadhafi Air Forces out of the fight and let them do it on the ground. But again, they wanted nothing in terms of military support. You know, humanitarian support would be fine. But as I say, it was clear, no-fly zone, but no troops on the ground from anyone.

  • 13:12:52

    NNAMDIIn case you're just joining us, we're discussing Libya on the brink and whether or not in response to the Arab League there is likely to be a no-fly zone imposed. We're talking with Sean Carberry, senior correspondent with America Abroad Media. He joins us by phone from Bahrain and Robert Danin, who is a senior fellow for the Middle East and Africa with the Council on Foreign Relations.

  • 13:13:12

    NNAMDIHe joins us from Washington D.C. by telephone. Robert, there are still a lot of questions about how and about whether a no-fly zone would work. Would the Arab League have to participate to win UN approval and since Gadhafi is mainly using ground troops to put down the rebels, would a no-fly zone be effective in stopping him?

  • 13:13:33

    DANINWell, I think we have to be clear on what we hope the no-fly zone can achieve. And here it can do a number of things, but it may not be able to do other things. At a minimum, it sends a very important signal. It sends a signal to the military in Libya that the international community is ratcheting up the pressure.

  • 13:13:53

    DANINAnd one of the things the Obama administration has been trying to do is try to drive a wedge between Gadhafi and some of his senior military and so this will have a deterrent effect. Many who have been wavering may now start to think, well I don't really want to be in an airplane that's going to get shot down by the West.

  • 13:14:14

    DANINAlso, it may indicate that the West is slow to react, but they're now coming and if the no-fly zone is ineffective, then the international community will ratchet up the pressure even further. But many who question the futility of the no-fly zone are right to say it may not be sufficient, it may not do the job in toppling Moammar Gadhafi. But it could play an important political role.

  • 13:14:39

    DANINIt could help in delivering humanitarian supplies to people in Libya who need it. It could help provide some cover from attacking forces that are going after the rebels who are trying to move on Tripoli. So it's an important step, but we also shouldn't be seeing it as the panacea that's going to solve all of the ills of the rebels.

  • 13:15:02

    NNAMDIPursuing the issue of whether or not a no-fly zone has the capacity to bring down Moammar Gadhafi in Libya and what if it doesn't, let's go to Ata, in Springfield, Va. Ata, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

  • 13:15:16

    ATAThank you very much. I was watching the "60 Minutes" show yesterday with the so-called terrible man. And I'm just wondering, I mean, when would American learn that there's nothing to justify any military action anyway. But director of national security or whoever his name is came out and told Congress that the rebels are not going to win. So why are we always just interested in creating trouble, killing people just to take over (unintelligible) in the name of national security?

  • 13:15:59

    NNAMDIWell, Ata allow me to reframe your issue in a question for Robert Danin because the Obama administration has explicitly not expressed any intention of intervening in Libya at this point. But Robert, Ata's question still remains and that is, you intervene in a situation like that, if you do not succeed in replacing Gadhafi, then you're looking at a situation in which the U.S. is likely, one way or the other, to get bogged down.

  • 13:16:30

    DANINWell, that is one very important consideration and we have to be leery of seeing this as a slippery slope. The use of air power need not lead to the introduction of boots on the ground. As we just heard from your other guest, clearly, that's something the Libyan people do not want and would not be welcome. But air cover is something else.

  • 13:16:57

    DANINPresident Obama stood up and said, Mr. Gadhafi has to step down. There has to be a credible reason for Mr. Gadhafi to fear staying in power and without a credible fear of force, Gadhafi is just going to continue what he's doing. So now that the international community is calling for an international role to be had in Libya. Then the question is, what role will the United States play in this? Are we going to react to the call from the Libyans, from the Arab League, from perhaps the Security Council or are we going to shy away from that?

  • 13:17:33

    NNAMDIThank you for your call Ata. Sean Carberry, allow me to move this discussion ahead one step. One of the big questions about Libya is what sort of government would be formed if Gadhafi were no longer in power? This is a country apparently with no civil society where Gadhafi himself is the central institution. Tell us what your observations were, Sean Carberry.

  • 13:17:55

    CARBERRYYes, I think that's a valid concern because what I saw in terms of the rebel movement was something that was very volunteer-based. Again, it was ad hoc. You had people who were coming in -- they had done some things very effectively. They had set a media center. They had set up some offices. But there wasn't a clear sense of security, of civil society, things like that at this point. And one of the other things, too, is it wasn't always clear what is the leadership structure of the rebel movement.

  • 13:18:29

    DANINSo there were very clear concerns about what would come next and I asked a number of people how were they going to transition there because their neighbors in Egypt had at least some functioning institutions that could be run by people other than President Mubarak and with the army there and something to transition to that the people actually had some faith in. And that doesn't exist in Libya and so that is clearly one of the big X factors and questions that people had. But for the most part, they were much more concerned with the task at hand.

  • 13:19:02

    DANINThey wanted Gadhafi out. They felt, you know, enough was enough. They had their moment of opportunity to start this revolution. And I think if you asked a lot of people, they weren't really going to worry too much about what would come next because as long as he was gone, it was going to be something better.

  • 13:19:20

    NNAMDIHere is Tom in Pikesville, Md. Tom, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

  • 13:19:25

    TOMHi, Kojo, thanks for taking my call. I think that President Obama was right in his Nobel Prize speech that we have subsidized peace for the last sixty years and if the Arab League wants to have a no-fly zone, I think they should impose one. They certainly got the planes. We sold them the planes.

  • 13:19:46

    TOMThey certainly got the pilots. We trained their pilots. They're certainly capable of taking the lead in this. I think what they want to have is for them to tell us to do it and then tsk, tsk when we accidentally kill civilians, which is going to happen when you impose a no-fly zone.

  • 13:20:05

    NNAMDIRobert Danin, the capacity of the Arab League to impose a no-fly zone itself?

  • 13:20:10

    DANINWell, I think Tom raised an excellent point and I think that we should, in our discussions with the Arab League -- Secretary Clinton is arriving in Cairo in the next 24 hours -- that will be an important discussion to have. And I think the more that this is an Arab initiative and an Arab effort, the better off we will all be. That said, there will probably be some issues of command and control that the Arab League themselves, the members, won't be capable of managing themselves.

  • 13:20:43

    DANINI mean, remember, the Arab League is just an umbrella organization for its member states. And there are a few states in the region that do have air capacity that is significant, Egypt, perhaps Saudi Arabia. But at the end of the day, I don't think the Arab states alone will be able to do this, but we should be encouraging them to play a significant role. Your guest is absolutely -- your caller was absolutely right.

  • 13:21:11

    NNAMDIAdele in Columbia, Md., you're up now. Adele, go ahead, please. Hi, Adele, are you there? Adele in Columbia, Md. is not on the line so let's try Robert in Annapolis, Md. Robert, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

  • 13:21:29

    ROBERTGood morning, Kojo. I left you a note the other day, but you probably didn't get it. It was just sending a voicemail about dividing the country east and west and that was before the east, I think, declared independence. I forget what the term is, but I -- you know, apparently France is recognizing that, and I see no reason why we couldn't recognize that. In other words, not try to drive Gadhafi out, just, you know, tell him to stay out of the eastern part of the country. And, you know, the same thing, I think we did say, you know, we don't have to have a no-fly, but you could say, you know, but don't fly over the eastern part, you know. And...

  • 13:22:05

    NNAMDIWell, let me ask Robert Danin how practical that would be.

  • 13:22:09

    DANINWell, I think we need to make a determination about who it is that we're aligning ourselves with. As Sean, you know, on the ground mentioned, I mean, we don't know these people very well. You know, the adage in the Middle East that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, well, that's not necessarily the case. We don't know that the forces that are aligned in the east are necessarily going to be Jeffersonian Democrats or even western oriented. So I think we have to handle this with a degree of caution. I think it's important that Secretary Clinton is going to meet representatives of the opposition. We need to know more what it is that they stand for, what it is that they plan for in Libya and then we can take it from there. But I would not be too hasty in trying to recognize an alternative government that we don't even know very much about.

  • 13:22:59

    NNAMDIAnd we're running out of time, Sean Carberry, but you are in Bahrain right now and we're receiving news today that other Gulf States are sending forces to Bahrain in the wake of protests in Bahrain. And that, of course, is also a hot situation there. What's going on?

  • 13:23:16

    CARBERRYWell, yeah, you're right. Yesterday was a long day of prolonged clashes between demonstrators and the police, lots of casualties yesterday. And foreign forces did start arriving today. It's not clear where they're going to be deployed yet, what their mission is. But I talked to a number of demonstrators after the troops started arriving and their feeling is that this is an army that's coming to take them out. They feel very bleak right now that no one has their back. And it's gotten to a very dark point right now and people very concerned about how the protestors are going to react now to foreign forces in the country.

  • 13:23:59

    NNAMDISean Carberry is senior correspondent with American Abroad Media. He is in Bahrain. Sean, thank you for joining us. Keep your head down.

  • 13:24:07

    CARBERRYThanks. You're welcome, Kojo.

  • 13:24:08

    NNAMDIRobert Danin is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa at the Council on Foreign Relations. Robert Danin, thank you for joining us.

  • 13:24:17

    DANINThank you, Kojo, for having me. It's been a pleasure.

  • 13:24:19

    NNAMDIWe're going to take a short break. When we come back, free speech on college campuses. The controversy continues with 11 students facing criminal charges at the University of California Irvine for allegedly disrupting a speech. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.

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