MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, understanding pulmonary hypertension, a look at this little known disease and its causes. But first, history behind the headlines in the Middle East. From Tunisia to Egypt to Jordan, changes coming almost faster than we can process it. Egyptians continue to take to the streets today and the situation is getting more tense as supporters of President Hosni Mubarak clash with those demanding he step down immediately.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIThe turmoil puts the U.S. in a tricky position. President Obama is now calling explicitly for Mubarak to begin the transition to a new government and other nations in the region are closely watching American words and actions. Journalist Marvin Kalb has also been watching this delicate diplomatic dance. He joins us now to offer a historical perspective on the upheaval in the Middle East and what it could mean for Americans.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIMarvin is the Edward R. Murrow professor of practice emeritus at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University. Marvin, good to see you again.

MR. MARVIN KALBMy pleasure, Kojo.

NNAMDIThere was a really upbeat mood surrounding the protests in Egypt over the last few days, but today, the Army is telling people to go home. There now seems to be more and more clashes. The atmosphere seems to be shifting. What do you make of what's happening in Egypt right now?

KALBThe first thought that enters my mind, Kojo, is a phrase attributed to Napoleon about China. "Let China sleep because when she awakes, the world will tremble." And I have this feeling now that the entire Middle East, as you were saying a moment ago, is at a historic moment. Egypt is the center of the Arab Middle East, it always has been. It is the largest Arab country in the world, 82 million people. And where Egypt goes, generally speaking, much of the Arab world goes.

KALBBut Egypt has been asleep for any number of decades now and suddenly, as a result of one action, of one person in Tunisia burning himself because of his feeling of oppression, the entire fragile structure of Arabic society appears suddenly to be falling apart. And you're absolutely right that we're seeing this happen now in different parts of the Middle East, spontaneously. And it isn't that the United States is behind it, it isn't. It's not that Israel is behind it, it isn't. It is that the Arabs are waking up and they are beginning to take history in their hands and trying to do something about it.

KALBIt is an extraordinary moment in history.

NNAMDIOver the weekend, U.S. officials were calling for an orderly transition in Egypt. But by yesterday, President Obama was being much more explicit. Here's what he had to say at the White House yesterday.

PRESIDENT OBAMAAfter his speech tonight, I spoke directly to President Mubarak. He recognizes that the status quo is not sustainable and that it -- a change must take place. Indeed, all of us who are privileged to serve in positions of political power do so at the will of our people, through thousands of years. Egypt has known many moments of transformation. The voices of the Egyptian people tell us that this is one of those moments. This is one of those times. Now, it is not the role of any other country to determine Egypt's leaders. Only the Egyptian people can do that.

PRESIDENT OBAMAWhat is clear and what I indicated tonight to President Mubarak, is my belief that an orderly transition must be meaningful, it must be peaceful and it must begin now.

NNAMDIPresident Obama on the situation in Egypt. We're talking with Marvin Kalb. Marvin, what's your take on how the U.S. has so far handles -- it's handled this message on Egypt?

KALBWell, on two levels, Kojo. On one level, all of us privileged to be able to talk about this situation have no responsibility for what it is that we're saying. And I listen to many, many people sounding off about this who probably have never set foot in Cairo. But the key thing at this point is, the United States is caught in one of those incredibly difficult moments in diplomacy. The U.S. has an ally, Mubarak, for 29 years he has not just done our calling. He has been a reliable man who has lived up to international agreements.

KALBHe and the United States, Israel, other Arab countries have done, quote, "the right thing." And now, suddenly, the people of Egypt are saying, out buddy, you're gone. Your time has passed. What is the U.S. to do and what is Obama to do? It is easy as heck to say the president is behind the curve of history. I don’t believe that. I think the U.S. has done about as well as any super power caught in this kind of delicate diplomacy can possibly do.

KALBLast Sunday, the secretary of state used the words that the president just used again, orderly transition. Transition, you'd have to be a diplomat for this, transition means change. We want an orderly change and we want it now. You're not saying, Hosni Mubarak, using his name, out you go. Mubarak is a proud man. He has been an Egyptian general, an Air Force commander, involved in every major Egyptian war. He doesn’t want to be kicked out.

KALBHe wants to leave with some honor. Moreover, Kojo, think about other American allies in the Middle East today. What about the Saudi Arabians? What about the Jordanians? What about all those small countries in the Persian Gulf?

NNAMDIAnd the Syrians.

KALBAnd the Syrians now. And they're talking about a day of rage demonstration this Friday. All over the Middle East, there is an awakening. What we don't know -- we know the changes taking place, we don't know exactly where it is going to end going. But at this particular point, I think the U.S., despite the punditry, is doing quite well in the management of this crisis.

NNAMDIFor you, the historical lesson we should be looking at when it comes to Egypt is our handling of the overthrow of the Shah in Iran.

KALBBecause there was a moment when the Shah, once again like Mubarak and Egypt, a very loyal ally of the United States, purchased American weapons, was perfectly happy to see American business men make fortunes in his country. And then, suddenly, the people of Iran begin to rise up. What is the U.S. do? How do you handle it? We handle it abominably. The effect of which was we betrayed a friend. Now, you can take the other side of this and say, well, you should be with the protesters.

KALBAnd, I think, what the President is saying now about Egypt is giving Americans belief in democracy, we would like to see democracy in Egypt. We would like to see it, but with the awareness that democracy has never existed. But for a very short time in the late 1940s, never existed in Egypt's 5,000 year history. So the idea of people saying, you know, we got to have -- yeah, everyone would like to have democracy. How do you do it? And that is the responsibility now of a leader such as Obama.

KALBTrying to carefully take care of American interests, at the same time, be mindful of what is happening historically on the streets of the Arab-Middle East.

NNAMDITrying to calibrate it. We're talking with Marvin Kalb. He is Edward R. Murrow professor emeritus at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University. Taking your calls at 800-433-8850. How do you think the U.S. is doing in responding to the turmoil in Egypt? Here is Imen in Fairfax, Va. Imen, you're on the air. Go ahead, please.

IMENHey, good afternoon, Mr. Nnamdi.

NNAMDIGood afternoon.

IMENI would like to comment on two things. The first was what you said, that the protesters who wants Mubarak to be (word?) and post are fighting against the protesters who want him out. But actually, if you hold up with the news, 43 of them so far has been captured and those who are nothing but police officers, the policeman in civilian clothes. So actually, Mubarak again is letting the myth of his power loose against the Egyptians who are protesting to let him out. That's one thing.

IMENThe other is what your guest is saying about the role of America in the Middle East. I'm 50, and I've actually lived the wars that Egypt had with Israel.

NNAMDIYou are Egyptian, Imen?

IMENPardon?

NNAMDIYou are Egyptian?

IMENYes.

NNAMDIGo ahead, please.

IMENSo I've lived through the '67 war, the '73 war and both the conflicts has been going between Egypt and Israel. I have relatives who died in wars and I left Egypt only, like, eight years ago. Actually, I was here right after September 11th. So I also saw what happened to people like me coming from Middle East after September 11th. My wife wears a scarf and she was told in McDonald's one day that it is time for you to change your religion, for instance.

IMENI know how fundamentalists react. What I want to say is that through all those years, every time the United States -- I'm an American citizen as well. Every time the United States intrudes in any of the countries in the Middle East, the result is always negative. Negative in a sense that the population is the one that suffers.

NNAMDISo what do you think the U.S. should be doing in regard to the current events unfolding in Egypt?

IMENSir, if I may say this -- and I live in a free country now. I can say it out loud on a civil matter. I want the States to stay out of Egypt's hair. I want it to stay out of all the Middle East hair. We can do without the United States intruding into everybody's affairs. They're not backing up democracy. Let's be frank...

NNAMDIOkay. Allow me to have Marvin Kalb respond because regardless of Imen's feeling, the fact is that the U.S., is in a way, already involved deeply with the Mubarak regime.

KALBThere's no question about that, Kojo. And I sense the feelings that Imen and many, many people like Imen would have about this, keep the United States out. To keep the United States out is, at this point, as you well know, impossible. The U.S. is an integral part of what is going on in the Middle East and has been for decades. Right now, what is going on in Egypt has an enormous effect on the rest of the Arab world and an effect on Israel where people in Israel are terribly concerned about what may be the new government in Egypt.

KALBIs it going to be an anti-Israel government? An anti-American government? We don't know that yet and we can't predict the future. But it's very clear that there have been times in the Middle East, which I'm sure you know about quite well, where the best intentions of people wanting democracy have been sacrificed on the altar of extremism of one sort or another. And religious extremism is only the modern interpretation of that.

NNAMDIMany people in the U.S. -- and thank you for your call, Imen. Many people in the U.S. are frightened by the prospect of an Egypt run by what's known as the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood has essentially said, we are not leading this. We are not in the forefront of this. We have been a political party in government with members in government, not necessarily under the title of Muslim Brotherhood, but in government...

KALBIndependence.

NNAMDI...for a while. How justified are the fears that people here may have of the Muslim Brotherhood in your view?

KALBI think the fears are justified. The Muslim Brotherhood was formed way back in the 1920s. The people who have emerged in leadership positions throughout the Arab world -- the number two person in al-Qaeda is a product of the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, an Egyptian himself. And this has been seen in many, many parts of the Middle East. The Muslim Brotherhood wants an Islamic society based Sharia law.

KALBThe impression one leaves is that the Taliban, when they were in control in Afghanistan, represented something close to -- not exactly, close to what it is that could emerge if the Brotherhood came into power and did what its ideology says. Now, there may be a huge difference in the practice of the Brotherhood were it to come into power from the ideology itself, which is extremist.

KALBSo we don't know, at this point, but the Brotherhood in Egypt is playing very cool. They are saying, 'we are not in favor in violence. We want to do it in a democratic way.' There simply is nothing in the ideology or the practice of the Brotherhood to lead us to believe that they are interested in democracy.

NNAMDIWhich brings me to what, for me, has been one of the more intriguing aspects about all of this. Can we trace the evolution in eight years of Mohamed El Baradei from that pesky, annoying head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, claiming in 2003 that there was no evidence that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, to Nobel Peace Prize Winner in 2005 to our man in Cairo in 2011?

KALBWell, the U.S. is doing what it can to say that it has no favorite candidate in what is going to happen in Egypt...

NNAMDIThis is true.

KALB...and we really should not have a favorite candidate. It is simply that El Baradei, given his background, as you so nicely described it, he spent living most of his life in the Western world, in the United States and Great Britain and Austria. He has not really participated in what has been going on in Egypt now for 50 years. But he has come back with a sense of dedication to the principle of democracy.

KALBMy sense is that he may be an interim, transitional figure in where we go next in Egypt, but he is not likely to be the next president for a period of four or eight years in Egypt that we can think of.

NNAMDIA common thread between Tunisia and Egypt is surging food prices and discontent over the lack of jobs.

KALBVery important.

NNAMDIIn an op-ed piece yesterday, U.S. Senator John Kerry suggested that the Obama Administration should offer civilian assistance that would help generate jobs in Egypt. Of course, our own nation has a lot of people who are also in need of jobs. Politically, what do you think is the right way for the U.S. to show its support for democracy in Egypt going forward?

KALBWell, this is one of the things. One of the things that we can do is say the right thing. And I think the administration has being trying to do that very hard. My sense is that Senator Kerry and the president had a talk and Senator Kerry wanted the president to move much more dramatically. And the president said, no we can't do that. We've got to move responsibly and Senator Kerry said, fine.

KALBThen he goes public and the op-ed piece appears in The Times and that in and of itself generates momentum and pressure on the U.S. to try to do something more quickly. If there were anywhere proof that anyone knew what was going to happen tomorrow in Egypt, I take my hat off to that person. But we really don't. There's an awful lot of reckless speculation. We are -- somebody said recently that we're only in the second inning of this game.

KALBAnd I think that's right. Maybe in the third inning this morning with some clashes back and forth with the threat of violence, with the Egyptian army still playing it cool and off on the side. By the way, the Egyptian army is the force in Egypt that still has the sympathy and respect of the Egyptian people.

NNAMDIWe got two e-mails, one from Tony in New York, underscoring one of things you just said. Tony says, "It seems that our intelligence community was entirely blindsided by the current events in Tunis and Cairo. Why?"

KALBBecause they didn't do very well. They blew it and we've been blowing it a lot in the Middle East because the U.S. has been so locked into a policy of let's keep stability over change. That conflict between stability and change has been forever and a day. And it's easier for any president, Democrat or Republican, it doesn't matter, to just go with stability.

KALBWhen you go with stability, you don't want to perceive threats to the stability and I think that's where we blew it in Tunisia and again in Egypt. But we have been making big strides in recent days.

NNAMDIThis e-mail from Beth in D.C., "Yesterday, President Obama stated Mubarak needed to begin leaving now. Today, Mubarak's thugs are in the streets attacking demonstrators. That is precisely why Obama did not say more to encourage the demonstrators or to drive Mubarak out. Obama has played this situation like violin, saying exactly as much as he could say without blowing it up. Unlike others, Obama has been strategic and no doubt understood that when he publicly withdrew support from Mubarak, that would trigger a violent reaction from the dictator. Can you imagine what would've happened if Obama had said Mubarak should go on the very first day?"

KALBYeah, I think that would've been the most irresponsible thing an American president could do and I think the person who wrote that e-mail is right on target. There is a degree of pressure on this president now to be ahead of the curve of history. But that is on a presumption that we know where the curve of history is going and we really don't. It is extremely presumptuous of the U.S. or any president or secretary of state to know or to say they know what is going to happen in Egypt.

KALBIt is right to say that this is for the Egyptian people to determine, not for the U.S. But we have powerful strategic interests in that part of the world. Military, economic, political, ideological, we're deeply involved still in two wars in that part of the world and the idea of a new kind of government coming into Egypt that may, may, soften its commitment to peace with Israel introduces an entirely new strategic element into the equation and that is a very dangerous development.

NNAMDIWe're talking about a situation that's very fluid right now. The political turmoil has spread to Yemen. We talked earlier about Jordan, about Syria and so I guess it's very difficult for a leader, like the leader of the United States, right now to make any definitive statements about anything at all.

KALBThat's absolutely right, except one definitive statement, which I think the president did make yesterday, we favor democracy. We want to transition to democracy and we want it now.

NNAMDICan't let you go without talking about Russia. It’s my understanding that there's quite a political tug of war right now in Russia between President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

KALBWell, very briefly, it is fascinating. What one is hearing now from Moscow is that Putin's people have been calling Americans -- I will not name them, calling Americans and saying, what do you think of Dema? Dema is the short of Dmitry, but use Dema on a kid who has been unruly. You don't use it with any respect. And so they ask, what do you think of Dema and how he's handling the terrorism at the airport, the terrorism last year in the subway system? Do you think this man is strong enough to defend Russian interests?

KALBAnd then when you press these people who are talking and spreading this idea, you say, are you really talking about an upcoming coupe in Russia where Putin will replace Medvedev? No, no, they say. But the idea of, listen to this, a reorganization of authority, gorgeous. There may be a reorganization of authority where Putin comes back and uses a tough fist against the terrorists once again.

NNAMDIWell, from the very beginning, Marvin Kalb has been saying once Dmitry Medvedev became president that we would see a tug of war at some point between him and Vladimir Putin. We seem right now to be in the middle of it. Marvin, thank you so much for joining us.

KALBThank you, Kojo.

NNAMDIMarvin Kalb is Edward R. Murrow professor emeritus at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University. We're going to take a short break. When we come back, we will try to unfold the mysteries of pulmonary hypertension. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.