MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Kojo Nnamdi Show," connecting your neighborhood with the world. Later in the broadcast, baby and child friendly food, DIY, it's Food Wednesday. Whether it's organic, store bought or homemade, tips for getting babies off to a healthy start. But first, political standoffs in the Middle East. Protesters took to the streets of Beirut and other major cities in Lebanon yesterday, participating in what organizers called a day of rage, protesting the country's new Prime Minister and the rising power of Hezbollah.

MR. KOJO NNAMDIIt's a relatively small country of four million people, but the standoff in Lebanon has profound implications across the region, coming in rapid succession with unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and the Palestinian authority, the developments all presenting unique challenges to Washington. Joining us in studio to discuss this is Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Mona Yacoubian, thank you for joining us.

MS. MONA YACOUBIANThank you.

NNAMDIAlso with us is Robert Malley, Middle East and North Africa program director with the International Crisis Group. He's a former Special Advisor to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs from 1998 to 2000. Robert, good to see you again.

MR. ROBERT MALLEYThanks for having me.

NNAMDIThe U.S. foreign policy establishment is grappling with four distinct challenges, as we speak, in the Middle East and North Africa, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon and the Palestinian authority brought on by what's now known as the Palestine papers. In Tunisia, popular uprising has toppled that country's dictator. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak is facing the strongest protest that -- in that country for years. And in Lebanon, we're seeing, well, political turmoil. The history, the cultures, the political players are very different in these three countries, but it was probably inevitable that these stories would be linked to each other. Do you see parallels, Robert Malley?

MALLEYWell, you know, there's a general parallel in the since that so many of these regimes where they talk about Egypt, Tunisia, you know, you could extend it to Algeria where they also have been -- there's been upheaval in the last few months.

NNAMDITrue.

MALLEYJordan, all these countries have been ruled by the same regime, the same stagnant regime, often autocratic, non-democratic and they're facing economic and social problems with either high levels of poverty or a lot of frustration in the middle class as occurred in Tunisia. So there's that commonality, but I think we'd be making a mistake to assume that they're all the same. What they all have in common, though, is this, in terms of U.S. policy. None of these crises are crises over which the U.S. today seems to have an ability to intervene, to shape or to make sure that the outcome will be in our interest.

NNAMDITo exercise any significant influence over...

MALLEYRight.

NNAMDIIn Lebanon, the latest crisis began when an unstable government of national unity collapsed when the militant group Hezbollah pulled its support. Mona Yacoubian, what happened?

YACOUBIANWell, I think what we saw was really the crescendo, Kojo, of a crisis that really has been months, if not years, in the making. Essentially, the crisis revolves around the special tribunal for Lebanon, a U.N. organized court. And Hezbollah has been bound and determined to insure that that tribunal not be supported by the government of Lebanon. And so when they were unable to push that demand on the government of Prime Minister or now former Prime Minister Hariri, they pulled their ministers out of the government forcing a collapse.

NNAMDIIndeed, Hezbollah's leader had demanded that Lebanon withdraw cooperation with the tribunal and that Mr. Hariri discredit the process. Why is Hezbollah so interested in not having this U.N. process go forward?

YACOUBIANWell, I think they view this court as, honestly, nothing short of an existential threat. They see it as essentially something that if it moves forward -- which it will independently. But if Lebanon endorses the tribunal, this will have essentially discredit Hezbollah in the eyes of not only Lebanon's Sunni population, but in the broader Arab/Sunni world. And so I think they also fear that the indictments of its members could, in fact, be the first step toward efforts to at least naturalize, disarm, if not destroy the organization.

NNAMDIRobert Malley, tell us a little bit about this tribunal. In the coming weeks, people expect indictments to be unsealed and that ongoing investigation into the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. This tribunal was created under the auspices of the United Nations, but it's funded in part by the Lebanese government.

MALLEYI mean, first of all, it's a unique institution. It's not the first time we have an international tribunal, but the first time we have an international tribunal for a single or even for a series of terrorist acts, acts of murder. We've had international tribunals for genocide, for war crimes. Not -- this is a special case. And it was instituted because the Lebanese government at the time felt that it didn't have the means on its own to investigate what was the murder of its most prestigious Sunni leader of the Sunni community who had been a former Prime Minister.

MALLEYAnd so they had asked the United Nations for help in establishing an international court. From the very outset, the court has been controversial. It's been a divisive issue, not just in Lebanon, but in the region. Let's not forget that initially all these suspicions, and they still are there, was that Syria was involved in the murder of Rafik Hariri. Now, most of the suspicions, in terms of the operational details, focusing on Hezbollah, but it's view -- the context of the tribunal is precisely -- if you go back to when it was instituted back in 2005, it's a time when Syria and Hezbollah and Iran felt that the United States under the Bush administration and Israel and others were trying to destroy them.

MALLEYSo they sold the tribunal through that prison and guilt or not -- and there's a strong assumption that they are guilty otherwise they probably wouldn’t be acting the way they are. They viewed it as a political instrument, as Mona says, to go after them to dismantle Hezbollah and then to dislodge the Syrian regime.

NNAMDIThis whole thing put Saad Hariri in a very strange position, Mona. On the one hand, the tribunal is investigating who was responsible for the murder of his father. On the other hand, the prevailing political winds seem to be steering Lebanon away from cooperating with the investigation.

YACOUBIANYeah, it's -- it has aspects almost of a Shakespearean tragedy, in the sense that the former Prime Minister is placed in a position where he's being pressured by one very powerful faction in Lebanon to essentially absolve them of the murder of his father. I think, unfortunately, the prevailing political currents in Lebanon are such that, I think, it's going to be very difficult to envision Lebanese cooperation with the tribunal going forward.

NNAMDIHezbollah keeps insisting that Israel was participating in -- or Israel participated in the assassination of the Hariri -- of the elder Hariri. How creditable is that assertion, Robert?

MALLEYIt doesn't sound that creditable to me. I mean, what they point to are two things. But I think this is -- the principal goal has been to discredit the tribunal, in large part because they know that they are going to be the indicted ones so they want to discredit. And in fairness, they've succeeded in terms of pulling the numbers or -- when I traveled to Lebanon, the Shiite community and a large part of the Christian community believes that the tribunal is hopelessly politicized.

MALLEYAnd they point to one simple fact. They say there have been a whole series of assassinations in Lebanon going back to the civil war in the '70s, prime ministers, presidents. This is the first time that a tribunal -- international tribunal has been set up to investigate it. And they say not coincidentally because the ones who are the accused or the suspected perpetrators happen to be on the wrong side of things in terms of how the U.S. and its allies view things. So they view this as a politicized instrument. And they've used as arguments the fact that Israel has -- that Lebanon has been able to uncover spy rings in -- that have infiltrated Israeli spy rings that have infiltrated the telecommunications sector.

MALLEYSo they're trying to sell doubt about the credibility of the tribunal. My sense is right now in Lebanon and in much of the world, there are people who believe the tribunal is creditable no matter what and there are people who believe that it is not creditable no matter what. And nothing the tribunal can do today is really going to change that.

NNAMDIWell, given Hezbollah's rising influence and its apparent really influential role -- decisive role in the founding of the next government, angry protestors took to the streets in Beirut, Mona Yacoubian, and in other major cities, throwing rubble into the streets and they called it a political coup d'état. How do you respond to that? Isn't the situation, the reality, maybe a little more complicated than that or is it a political coup d'état by Hezbollah?

YACOUBIANI think --again, I think it's a little more complex than that. I think -- but we saw in the streets of Beirut and Tripoli yesterday and the day before was essentially -- sort of depicts the deep sectarian tensions that Lebanon currently is experiencing. And so they called for a day of rage and I think this is a very dangerous turn in -- for Lebanon. Because while Hezbollah may be able to impose its will, it certainly cannot control the streets. And I think that what we are seeing within the Sunni community is a sense that they are being disenfranchised and that their wishes and their will is not being respected. And this sets Lebanon up, I think, for weeks, if not months, of dangerous tension that could break out into violence.

NNAMDIGlad you mentioned the Sunni community because, Robert Malley, before I get to that specifically, you mentioned that among those who believe of the Israeli involvement in Lebanon are the Shiite community and the Christian community. Presumably the Drus (sp?) talking...

MALLEYNo. I'm talking -- I mean, the Christian community is divided. I think, as Mona points out, and we -- to understand Lebanon, one has to understand that it is a very pluralistic diverse confessional system. In fact, which has worked relatively well for all its flaws since the civil war in terms of managing to come up with a confessional division of spoils and of power that has held, more or less. But it has held only because all groups have felt, more or less, adequately represented and that no party has emerged as a winner.

MALLEYI mean, the formula in Lebanon is there should be no winners, no losers. The problem with where -- what we're going through now and in particular the way the tribunal is viewed, is that automatically there's a winner and a loser. If one side is being accused of the murder of Rafik Hariri and the other side is the victim of that murder, it's very hard for the two to come out and say, let's both come out and prevail in this fight. So the sectarian tensions which had been more or less under wraps exploded after 2005. They've intensified since. And as Mona said, the -- what we saw in the streets yesterday, what we're hearing are very, very high pitch sectarian level of confrontation, which has always spelled disaster for Lebanon and that's what has to be avoided.

NNAMDIRobert Malley is Middle Eastern, North Africa program director with the International Crisis Group. He's a former special advisor to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs. He joins us in studio along with Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group with the U.S. Institute of Peace. Mona, you mentioned earlier that, in part, these demonstrations were held because the Sunni community in Lebanon feels disenfranchised, but the new Prime Minister is Najib Mikati. He briefly held the position of Prime Minister in 2005. He is a Sunni and he's not a member of Hezbollah. How do we explain that?

YACOUBIANWell, this is where we get to enjoy the complexity of Lebanon, try and understand it. Essentially, the new Prime Minister, in terms of his nomination, falls completely within the parameters of the constitution. The President pulled various numbers of Parliament and Najib Mikati got 68 members, a majority of the Parliament, to support his nomination as Prime Minister. So in that sense -- and I guess I should back up. In Lebanon, because of the various confessional communities, in particular the Maronite Christian, the Sunni Muslim and the Shiite Muslim community, there has been what's essentially an unwritten agreement, a gentlemen's agreement called the National Pact that dates...

NNAMDICorrect.

YACOUBIAN...to 1943. And that agreement essentially lays out the political rules of the game, the power sharing as it should take place among the three primary religious communities in Lebanon. And so by that agreement, the President must always be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister must always be a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of the Parliament must always be a Shiite Muslim. So Prime Minister Mikati's nomination as Prime Minister certainly, as a Sunni from Tripoli, as you note, certainly...

NNAMDITechnically fulfills that legal requirement.

MALLEYRight.

YACOUBIANTechnically, it does. However, the Sunni community, as we've seen and by their protesting in the streets, are crying foul and they're saying that he is really not the true leader of the Sunni community. That leader is Saad Hariri, the former prime minister.

NNAMDIWell, then who is Najib Mikati?

YACOUBIANHe's an interesting fellow. I mean, I actually think, in some ways, he's being portrayed by some as Hezbollah's man or Hezbollah's candidate. He's actually, I think, staked a fairly neutral ground. He's reaching his -- extending his hand out, calling for consensus. He's a self-made billionaire, has his master's in business from AUB, the American University of Beirut, but was also schooled or spent some time at Harvard.

YACOUBIANA very accomplished man, I think. Technically, quite competent and could do a good job for Lebanon.

MALLEYI think the issue about Mikati is not so much who he is. I think, as Mona said, he had been prime minister before and had been quite widely accepted at the time. The problem is who he is not. He is not Hariri and that's who the Sunni community wants and the problem is who put him forward and it was not the future, current, the majority Sunni party. That’s his problem, not who he is. And, in fact, he may be doing -- he may do a very good job, but he has that legitimacy problem.

NNAMDIAnd Hariri has said he felt stabbed in the back by Mikati, correct?

MALLEYHe did. I mean, Hariri feels that he's entitled. There is also -- again, to the complexity of Lebanon. It’s not just a confessional system, it's also a very feudal system in a sense and there's certain people who believe that they are the heads of their community and Saad Hariri has been the head of the Sunni community. He inherited that mantle from his father and in that sense, he feels that he's been betrayed by any Sunni who would oppose him.

NNAMDIThis situation presents some unique challenges to Washington in practical and strategic terms. On a practical level, it's unclear whether a new government, led by a Sunni prime minister but controlled by a Shiite militant group, Hezbollah, can continue to receive U.S. foreign aid.

MALLEYI mean, this going to be a huge conundrum because even though the government may not be that different from the one that there was before, I mean, it's going to be a mix. The fact, again, that the prime minister was put forward by Hezbollah is going to make it very hard to convince the Congress if the administration wants to convince the Congress to continue funding the Lebanese army.

MALLEYLet's not forget that when the Congress was controlled by democrats and the Lebanese government was under Saad Hariri, even then Congress hesitated to fund the army. Now, you have a republican Congress, you have a government that may be more sympathetic to Hezbollah. I think it's going to become exponentially more difficult.

NNAMDIThis is a battle of proxies and allies. On the one side you have the U.S. and you have, I guess, Saudi Arabia. These two parties don't always see eye-to-eye, but they generally work in concert in this realm. On the other side, you have Syria and you have Iran. Syria has withdrawn its occupation since Hezbollah went to war with Israel, at one point, actually took over Beirut. How do we make sense of this fairly complicated situation, Mona?

YACOUBIANWell, I think in many ways it's important to view Lebanon as a microcosm of the Middle East. It is, as you noted, Kojo, at the top of the show, a small country. Only 4 million people, it's smaller than the state of Connecticut. But it sits astride some of the most volatile fault lines in the Middle East. Sunni and Shiite, as you point out, the struggle between the U.S. and Iran is often played out in the Lebanese arena and I think that's what we're seeing today.

YACOUBIANI think there are deep concerns, not only Hezbollah, but what this says about the projection of Iranian influence in Lebanon via Hezbollah. Although I think it's important to be careful and not to think of Hezbollah simply as a puppet of Iran, I think it's a far more dynamic organization and I think its relations with Iran are evolving even as we speak. And as Hezbollah gains more power in Lebanon, it's going to be important and interesting to try and understand how that impacts its relations with Iran.

NNAMDIFinally you, Robert.

MALLEYI think Lebanon's tragedy has been that other countries have cared for it too much and they should leave it alone. I mean, you have too many countries that have fought their surrogate battles, their proxy battles in Lebanon, whether it's the Syrians, Israelis, Iranians, the U.S., the Saudis and Lebanon is a country that is eager to be left alone.

NNAMDIRobert Malley is Middle Eastern and North African program director with the International Crisis Group. He's a former special advisor to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli affairs. Robert, thank you for joining us.

MALLEYThank you.

NNAMDIMona Yacoubian is Director of the Lebanon Working Group at U.S. Institute for Peace. Mona, thank you for joining us.

YACOUBIANThank you as well.

NNAMDIWe're going to take a short break. When we come back, baby food, child-friendly food, whether it's organic, store-bought or home-food, tips for getting them off to a healthy start. It's Food Wednesday. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.