MR. KOJO NNAMDIFrom WAMU 88.5 at American University in Washington, welcome to "The Politics Hour" featuring -- no, starring Tom Sherwood. I'm Kojo Nnamdi. Tom Sherwood is our resident analyst. He's a reporter at NBC 4 and a columnist for the Current Newspapers. That is our holiday gift to you. You are now starring on the broadcast.

MR. TOM SHERWOODWell, that's very nice. Holiday wishes and Festivus wishes to all.

NNAMDIIndeed, and I also pass those on to all of you. It would be easy for us to reflect upon the political year 2010 today, to take one final hour to analyze D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty's defeat or Maryland Governor O'Malley's march to re-election or Tom Sherwood's epic gripes about aggressive security policies in the capital region. But at "The Politics Hour," we don't do easy. Today, we're going to gaze into the future for hell or high water and the issues and personalities that will shape 2011 in Richmond, Annapolis and D.C. And if our predictions turn out to be off base by this time next year, well, we'll just pretend that this show never happened.

NNAMDILater in the hour, we'll be contemplating the future of Maryland and the District. But, first, we're looking at what's in store for Virginia in the year 2011 and no better guest to talk about that than Bob Gibson. He is the executive director of the Thomas C. Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. He was a political writer, columnist and editor at the Charlottesville Daily Progress for 30 years, where Bob specialized in covering local, state and national politics. Bob Gibson, happy holidays to you. Welcome.

MR. BOB GIBSONHappy holidays, Kojo, always good to join you.

SHERWOODYou know, his title is longer than some of these deputy-undersecretary to the assistant-secretary in the federal government.

NNAMDIYou get a word added to your title for each year of service that you perform...

SHERWOODOh, my goodness.

NNAMDI...so his title is now 30 words long.

SHERWOODHappy holidays, Bob.

GIBSONHappy holidays, Tom.

NNAMDIBob, time flies a little faster in Virginia where Bob McDonnell is already a quarter of the way through his term as governor. He's got a national profile now. He's vice president of the Republican Governor's Association. What's at stake for him when the General Assembly reconvenes in Richmond?

GIBSONWell, it's going to be a big year because they don't have a lot of money, and yet he wants to put his imprint on the state budget. So he's going to put a few initiatives into play that are going to try to put McDonnell's name on the state budget, including some for education, some for higher education. But he's telling folks in Virginia that state employees will not receive a raise this coming year. I think it's going to be a very tight year otherwise, so it's also a year in which re-districting is going to occur in April. Virginia's the first state in the nation to re-district its congressional and state legislative lines. So that's going to be a major battle in Richmond, looking like April is going to be a hot month.

SHERWOODIt's always good to remind people that, in Virginia, the governor cannot succeed himself or herself, and so this is it for Bob McDonnell. The budget he puts together is his budget, his imprint. What about transportation here in Northern Virginia?

NNAMDIYeah, you didn't mention that four-letter word.

SHERWOODWell, you -- you know, it's (unintelligible) talk the whole program about transportation.

NNAMDIThat's true.

SHERWOODWhat's the bumper-to-bumper crowd have to know about McDonnell, going forward?

GIBSONThat he wants to borrow money to put more money immediately into transportation. So he's going to try to put a couple billion dollars in through borrowing, which is not Virginia's normal tradition. So he's encountering some resistance from Democrats who say that there's too much borrowing to put the money into transportation.

SHERWOODTo pay as you go is kind of the traditional way, right?

GIBSONWell that's -- that's pay -- pay as you go is gone.

SHERWOODYes.

GIBSONIt doesn't work in Virginia anymore when you can't raise the gas tax, so he's looking for other alternatives. There are going to be hot lanes. They're certainly under construction, and everybody is suffering through that on the Beltway right now. But, you know, tolls and borrowing are the new parts of Virginia's transportation budget.

NNAMDIIt was the issue that Tim Kaine could not make real progress on. In the wake of McDonnell's floated plan, what are the chances, you think, that he can make progress where Kaine failed on the transportation issue?

GIBSONWell, I think the General Assembly will give him some borrowing authority, and he is letting the borrowing go forward. It's just a matter of, you know, how much and how much debt Virginia is willing to saddle itself with for the future to put roads into construction right now, and I think there will be a significant amount. I don't think it's going to meet Virginia's needs by any means, but Virginia has to put more money into transportation just to leverage the federal funding that's available.

SHERWOODAnd the state's going to stay in the liquor business? The ABC stores, they're not going to be going private?

GIBSONThat has been an initiative that the governor has put forward, that so far the General Assembly has resisted in both parties. The Democratic-controlled Virginia Senate doesn't like selling off the ABC stores for a temporary infusion of cash because, 10 years down the road, they don't see the same revenue coming in for the general fund for education and all the other state initiatives that come out of the general fund. So it looks like the House of Delegates, which is under heavy Republican Control, is also resisting the attempt to privatize the liquor industry. He will take that forward, but he's going to try to pare it down and see what he can get out of it.

SHERWOODSo this conservative, moderate conservative at that state wants to stay in the liquor business for itself 'cause it gets money for education? That's kind of -- actually, that sounds kind of funny when you think about it. Sell more booze for education.

GIBSONWell, it's the system we've had -- we'd be selling a lot more booze if we had privatized liquor stores across the state. And, while philosophically many legislators believe that that is the way to go in the future, they haven't seen the plan yet that maintains the revenue stream that they would like to maintain for the state.

NNAMDIWhat kind of political capital does Bob McDonnell have right now state-wide?

GIBSONIt's pretty high. He has not suffered significant defeats. He has had a good successful first year as governor of Virginia, and he is looking now -- now, is the height of his power in terms of shaping the budget. As Tom said, this is his budget. The next two years is the McDonnell budget, and even though there's not a lot of new money coming into Virginia, revenues are still a bit flat. They're increasing, but they're increasing more slowly than projected. He wants to put his initiatives in, and he's going to do that by spending money to create jobs across the state, through the Governor's Opportunity Funds and by putting a few new initiatives into education, such as trying to get 100,000 new college degrees within 10 years.

NNAMDIIn case you're just joining us, this is "The Politics Hour" featuring Tom Sherwood. We're looking ahead to the year 2011...

SHERWOODI thought it was starring.

NNAMDIOh, I forgot. This is "The Politics Hour," starring Tom Sherwood.

SHERWOODThank you.

NNAMDINext year, we'll be back to (unintelligible). We're looking ahead to the year 2011. Tom is our resident analyst. He's a reporter at NBC 4, a columnist for the Current Newspapers and a former Washington Post bureau chief in Richmond, Va. Bob Gibson is the executive director of the Thomas C. Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. Bob, the cast of characters in Richmond will change a little bit, particularly on the Republican side. House majority leader Morgan Griffith will be moving to Capitol Hill to take Rick Boucher's seat. Delegate Robert Hurt is going with him to take over Tom Perriello's post. Who do you expect has the potential to take on a bigger profile in Richmond now?

GIBSONWell, actually, it's a gentleman who has been rather high-profile, but behind the scenes, in terms of the power structure in the House of Delegates. That's Kirk Cox who is a very conservative Republican delegate from Chesterfield County just south of Richmond. He has the new majority leader's position, and he's been a power with Speaker Howell, running the Republican Caucus that has controlled the House of Delegates. So he's now stepping forward into the limelight a little bit more. But he's someone who is very resistant to new taxes in Virginia. And, I think, with 61 Republican seats in the House of Delegates, he is going to be a major force as well as the Republican Speaker, Bill Howell.

SHERWOODIs Mr. Cox a Tea Party type?

GIBSONNo. He's a traditional Republican. He's a high school government teacher. But he's very conservative, and he has his caucus. He is in step with his caucus. So, I think, he is going to be the person that Dick Saslaw is going to have to deal with as the Democratic-controlled Virginia Senate -- run by Dick Saslaw -- deals with the House of Delegates. You can't get anything through Richmond unless it goes through both houses.

NNAMDICan't wait to welcome Kirk Cox to "The Politics Hour." What do you think the new faces of Virginia's Congressional delegation will mean for how the Commonwealth is represented on Capitol Hill?

GIBSONWell, we are going from six Democrats and five Republicans -- in early January, we become a state with three Democrats, losing three, and eight Republicans, gaining three Republican seats. Tom Perriello lost the closest of those races to Robert Hurt in the 5th District from the Charlottesville to Danville area in Southside Virginia. Glenn Nye lost in Hampton Roads to Scott Rigell, a very wealthy car dealer from Virginia Beach. And Rick Boucher lost in a surprising large margin in the 9th Congressional District in Southwest Virginia to Morgan Griffith who was the majority leader in the House of Delegates.

GIBSONSo we have three people -- two of them veterans of the General Assembly for the last, at least, 10 years in Robert Hurt and Morgan Griffith -- coming to Washington. And we have Scott Rigell, the good friend of Gov. Bob McDonnell, from Virginia Beach coming in as the new 2nd District congressman. It's going to be a very Republican-leaning congressional delegation now with two Democratic senators.

SHERWOODAnd they're going to be freshman at a time when the Defense Department is looking for ways to cut billions out of its budget. And they're looking at -- I know some of the state leaders have been up here in the Pentagon, lobbying to save some monies, the (word?) decisions which have added to the traffic woes. It's unfortunate for the state. It is going to have some freshman members of Congress, not the veterans like Tom Davis.

GIBSONWell, or John Warner. And John Warner was the veteran who could bring both sides together and work very well to keep defense dollars coming to Virginia. This new congressional delegation is going to have to work harder.

NNAMDISome people are already maneuvering for 2012. Former Sen. George Allen and Prince William County Chairman Corey Stewart have had tough words for each other. Who do you think the smart money is on for becoming the GOP candidate who will take on Sen. Jim Webb?

GIBSONWell, I think everyone gives George Allen the leader's position in that race right now. He has gotten his wish to get a Republican Party primary for the nomination process, and I think that is to forestall a convention where anything could happen. George Allen is the best known of the candidates. Don't count out Bob Marshall, the delegate from Prince William County. Bob Marshall is making noises. And he's a strong ally of Ken Cuccinelli, the Attorney General. Bob is looking at running as well for the Senate seat that Jim Webb has not formally announced that he will seek, but everyone expects him to seek a second term now.

SHERWOODBut George Allen -- had he not said the word, macaca -- probably would have won that race against Jim. Jim Webb challenged him, but it seems to me -- I have been paying attention to the e-mails. I'm on the George Allen e-mail list, and he has been working -- I used to use the word diligently -- for the last couple of years. This is not some late starting thing with him. He's been working at this for the last several years.

GIBSONHis comeback is well underway, and he has been campaigning for Republican candidates energetically across Virginia for the past year or more. So don't count out George Allen in a primary. He's the best known of the bunch, and, I think, with that name identification he starts out with a tremendous advantage in a primary. But there are a lot of Tea Party folks who are even more conservative than George Allen who want a standard bearer who is a little more pure.

SHERWOODWhat does George Allen say for the inevitable questions? What about the word, macaca? What does he -- how does he address that then put it aside?

NNAMDIThe past is the past.

GIBSONAnd he apologizes for making a mistake and says it's time to move on.

SHERWOODOkay.

NNAMDIBack to the state senate, Bob Gibson, what kind of strategy do you expect Democrats in the state senate to follow in the 2011 session?

GIBSONWell, Dick Saslaw has a tough caucus. There are 22 Democrats in the 40-member Senate, and redistricting looms in everyone's future. As the state's census data becomes available and the April redistricting session comes, it's going to be incumbent on the Democrats in the Senate to kind of protect their majority, they believe, whereas the Republicans in the House are very happily carving new House districts. And no one knows -- you know, everyone in the entire General Assembly runs for re-election in 2011. No one knows where those district lines are going to be, so the Republicans are holding the cards in the House of Delegates.

GIBSONThe Democrats in the Senate have a tough road to hoe because they really do have a very disparate caucus. And there are several Democratic senators whose seats, were they to retire, such as Chuck Coggins in the Prince William area -- were they to retire, Republicans might be favored for those seats. So they would be very heavily contested and very expensive races. So where those lines are drawn is going to make a great deal of difference as to who runs. And don't, you know, think for a minute that that's not a consideration in redistricting. You know, you draw lines to choose your own voters in redistricting, and you draw lines to choose your own candidates or opponents sometimes as well.

SHERWOODRight and to redistrict someone out of it, his or her base. Now, just to be clear, if the Senate redraws the lines for the Senate, does it have to be approved as the legislation of the House has to vote for it or vice versa? Does the...

GIBSONYes.

SHERWOOD...House redistricting have to be approved by the Senate?

GIBSONYes.

SHERWOODSo there'll be...

GIBSONAnd they...

SHERWOOD...some conference committee that will actually -- then finally do the final lines?

GIBSONAnd Gov. McDonnell has thrown an interesting wrench into it. He's putting a bipartisan, nonpartisan commission into the mix as well to look at redistricting. So there is a change that, you know, it will not be as cutthroat and absolutely partisan as it has always been. Because this is the first time in Virginia's history that one party controls one House and one party controls the other House -- the other party -- and they have to work together. Now, chances are they're going to cut a deal and let the House Republicans control the House redistricting process. And the Senate Democrats control the Senate redistricting process. The congressional process has always been left to the party in power, and that's up for grabs. So that's where the process may end up in court.

NNAMDIBob Gibson, we're having this conversation shortly after a federal judge decided to uphold one part of Atty. Gen. Ken Cuccinelli's challenge to the healthcare reform act. What's the sentiment that you can pick up in Virginia about this? Is there that widespread opposition to healthcare reform? Or is it simply the attorney general and a particular ideological faction?

GIBSONWell, the Attorney General is a conservative activist, and he's brought many court actions. This is the first one that he's gained a tremendous initial win on. And this, of course, will go to the U.S. Supreme Court and probably will not be decided for the better part of two years, ultimately. So everyone's looking at Justice Kennedy to see, you know, which way the fifth vote..

NNAMDISure.

GIBSON...will lean. It's not at all a surprise that Judge Hudson in Virginia, who's a Republican appointee, has ruled the health insurance by mandate, unconstitutional. That was expected. You know, so far the judges who have ruled on the healthcare proposal have ruled according to the way you would expect them to rule based on which party they come from. You know, the politicization of our judiciary is something that, I think, we have to think about in the future because Republican-appointed judges are becoming more Republican in their rulings sometimes.

GIBSONAnd Democratic appointed judges are more likely to uphold the Obama healthcare plan. And, I think, the Supreme Court is going to be the ultimate arbiter. And, you know, do Americans look at the Supreme Court as being politicized?

NNAMDIWe'll have to have that discussion at a later date. Bob Gibson, thank you for joining us.

GIBSONThank you very much, Kojo. Have a wonderful holiday.

NNAMDISame to you and family. Bob Gibson is the executive director of the Thomas C. Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia. He was a political writer, columnist and editor at the Charlottesville Daily Progress for 30 years. There, he specialized in covering local, state and national politics. Tom Sherwood, four years ago, Adrian Fenty took over the Wilson building, promising to move as fast as humanly possible. Vince Gray knocked Fenty out of office by, among other things, promising to go a little slower than that. Where do you expect Gray will make the most immediate impact once he's sworn in? And what do you expect will be his most immediate challenges?

SHERWOODWell, to put the -- sensing the dot on this Fenty sentence. You know, he moved so fast he lost sight of the voters. So...

NNAMDIFast as humanly possible.

SHERWOODI know.

NNAMDIThat was his favorite phrase.

SHERWOODUnfortunately, he moved too fast for people, and he just ignored people. Then Gray comes in, and then he's got -- well, he's got the budget. I mean, closing out the year, Gray was talking about, they had the budget vote to close a $200 million gap, and they've got a $400 million gap to face in the spring. And Gray steadfastly at a 7-to-6 vote in the council, blocked any tax increases. So the big question for Gray coming out is, one, will his whole new cabinet be in place and in the order and will he put up together a budget in early spring or late winter that will be a mix of tax increases and budget cuts? That's his big test.

NNAMDIGiven the traditional orientation of the D.C. City Council, the prevailing wisdom seems to say, no way that this city counsel is not going to come up with an increase in taxes someway or the other. We know Jack Evans for one -- the chairman or the chairman of the committee on finance -- has said, no way we need to have anymore increases in taxes in the District of Columbia.

SHERWOODYou know, the city leaders do realize, in some respects, that it is competing with Northern Virginia's low tax rates and Maryland, which is roughly equivalent. But you can't, you know, tax your way out of these kinds of issues. The government in the last, I think, eight, nine years has grown, like, 65 percent. And so there has to be changes in terms of what the city is spending -- how that's done, who does it, who gets, you know, messed up in those kinds of budget equations -- will be important.

SHERWOODBut I do think Vince Gray as the mayor will be able to lead this. He has very good working relationships with the council members, unlike Fenty. And so if he comes to get -- he will try to put together a budget that will acknowledge the council members' concerns and try to be that census -- I mean, consensus person -- not census -- consensus person. And, I think, that'll be a true test for him. The other big test for him...

NNAMDIYes.

SHERWOOD...how does he manage the government? He has been a legislator since he was elected at Ward 7 and then moved onto the chairmanship, and now he's in an executive function where he can't just mull over things and vote. He has to make decisions, and he hired Allen Lew to be the city administrator. Allen Lew is a take no prisoners kind of guy. We need to get this done. Why haven't you done it yet? That's totally 180 degrees opposite of Gray. And so how he goes forward and how that partnership works will be fascinating for reporters and for the citizens.

NNAMDIBecause Vincent Gray has the reputation of being very deliberative, Allen Lew has the reputation of being extremely assertive and aggressive. Maybe that's why Vincent Gray hired Allen Lew.

SHERWOODIt's true. If they work together -- I recently saw them after a public event. I stood around, and then I watched Allen Lew and Vince Gray and Allen Lew's chief of staff, Warren Graves, stand off in a corner after this public event, and they stood for five or six minutes, talking. And Allen Lew did, like, five of the six minutes of talking. It was impressive.

NNAMDIThat's more than all the time he spent talking when he's been on this broadcast.

SHERWOODHe's very careful about how he talks in public. But, you know, I think, he's going to be decisive. I would, as I wrote recently, I'd love to be in the room when Allen Lew has a cabinet meeting with the department heads, and he doesn't like one or two of them because they haven't done what he thinks they should do. He is known in private to speak very bluntly.

NNAMDIHopefully, he'll do that when he appears...

SHERWOODNot politically...

NNAMDI...on this...

SHERWOOD...bluntly.

NNAMDI...broadcast the next time. What are the two or three issues that lost momentum under Adrian Fenty, that you expect will gain more steam under Vincent Gray? I'm thinking, adult education. I'm thinking, probably, something...

SHERWOODEarly childhood education.

NNAMDIEarly childhood education. I'm thinking he's probably is going to take a shot at trade schools also. What do you think?

SHERWOODI think you're going to see the school system continue the reform. In the election there was great fear in, particularly, the white community of Washington, that somehow Vincent Gray was not aggressive about school reform because he disagreed -- did not like and disagreed with Michelle Rhee and didn't work well with Mayor Fenty. With many respects, with all due respect to the Mayor -- Mayor Fenty and Rhee -- they didn't really try to work with Gray. Which I think Gray -- he has championed early education issues. Kwame Brown who's going to be the new council chairman supports vocational education.

NNAMDI(unintelligible) .

SHERWOODThe Phelps School and other places, and so there's a -- we're kind of going back to the future where there were high schools in the city, where people who could do academics, and if you showed some other interest, that there were credible and worthy places to go for workplace education.

NNAMDIBecause even as we're looking at public school reform, which addresses the issue of younger children and teenagers, there is still a 30-something or 39 percent adult illiteracy rate in the District of Columbia. And a lot of the adults who find themselves not being able to find jobs in the District of Columbia have to be trained in some kind of way if we're to make any dent in the unemployment.

SHERWOODWell, there's a department in the city called the Department of Employment Services.

NNAMDIYeah, I heard of it.

SHERWOODDOES, and everyone -- we always say is, What does it do?

NNAMDIExactly.

SHERWOODAnd Gray has indicated -- he hasn't taken any big steps yet -- but he kind of wants to do with employment services what Fenty has done with education. Change the mindset. Reset the table. Do something different. That's where he has said -- he's already had -- late in the year, he had this meeting with local business leaders. He wants job creation to be one of his signature issues.

NNAMDII found it a little surprising that the proposal floated by council members Marion Berry and Yvette Alexander to put a five year cap on people who are receiving TANF benefits, so...

SHERWOODThat's welfare benefits, basically.

NNAMDIWell, who are receiving...

SHERWOODIt's a polite way of saying welfare.

NNAMDI...welfare benefits. It was generally concluded that that proposal was going nowhere. Nevertheless, the city...

SHERWOODThat's why Berry proposed it.

NNAMDIThat's what we thought, but, nevertheless, in the last meeting, the City Council indicated that in order to save money, may head in that direction.

SHERWOODAgain, they're going to have to make the council members...

NNAMDIBut then DOES becomes really big.

SHERWOODCouncil members are going to be making very tough budget decisions, that they've got this horrific decision. Some people thought -- I'm among them -- thought that Marion Berry proposed that pro-business policy of cutting off welfare payment in his effort to get the chairmanship of the economic development committee, which is a very big pro-business kind of place. But I'm not sure that worked out as well he thought it would.

NNAMDISee, that's why we have you here. Others like me thought he made it because he and Yvette Alexander had grown tired in their wards of seeing intergenerational welfare and thought that people need a carrot and needed a carrot and stick approach to help to get off. The DOES would provide the carrot by making job training and employment available, and the stick would be, well, you can't have it for more than five years.

SHERWOODWell, (unintelligible) ...

NNAMDIWho knew this kind of thing?

SHERWOODWell, that is the national policy. You know, that's the federal policy.

NNAMDIIt sure is.

SHERWOODAnd only a few states and jurisdictions actually extend benefits. Some extend them for shorts periods of time. The city extends them indefinitely. But, you know, you have to have job training and better adult education before you can tell people that we're cutting you off.

NNAMDISpeaking of education, what's your early read on the relationship between Vincent Gray and the interim schools chancellor Kaya Henderson?

SHERWOODVincent Gray likes her a great deal. He's very interested in what she's doing. You know, people who worry about schools -- again, she was the deputy to Michelle Rhee for three years. She's been very aggressive. She went over to the Dunbar High School, and she blew up a private organization that was trying to run that place and not doing it well, and she's reestablished traditional principal over there. Steven Jackson, I think, is his name.

NNAMDIUnveiled a design for a new building.

SHERWOODA new -- yes. And it's all good. Although when they had that press conference, they forgot or they didn't invite Eleanor Holmes Norton, who's a graduate of Dunbar. And that was kind of a mistake.

NNAMDIIsn't Vince Gray a graduate of Dunbar, also?

SHERWOODYes, he is. Sure is, 1959.

NNAMDIAs are my sons, but go ahead.

SHERWOOD(unintelligible)...

NNAMDII'm not boasting.

SHERWOODBut Kaya Henderson, as the year was ending, was not clear whether in fact she was going to stay or not. It wasn't clear whether Gray was going to appoint her, and it wasn't clear whether she'd stay if he appointed her. 'Cause, you know, there's some thought that Michelle Rhee wants her to come work with her.

NNAMDIAnd Kaya Henderson has said already that she kind of likes being the second-in-command. She likes keeping a lower profile. We'll have to see what's happened. Vince Gray is already taking heat from certain constituencies for not re-upping with Fenty's transportation direction, Gabe Klein, the creative force behind a lot of the bike lane and street car projects. What do you expecting from Vince Gray on these types of issues?

SHERWOODWell, I think, again, like school reform, Gray has said -- even though he'd had that screw-up over street cars -- that he wants to continue making the city a welcoming place for not only automobiles but bicycles and pedestrians and all of that. You know, Gabe Klein, when -- back in the summer when the street car thing kind of blew up, I don't think Gabe was as politic as he should've been at what he said publicly. And I think that irritated Gray a great deal. Klein is well-liked for many things he's done. But, again, the Fenty administration was, well, we're going to do this and not do as much public consulting as people wanted them to do.

NNAMDIWhile there was some controversy over Klein's initiatives, particularly on bike lanes and street cars, he is really not necessarily trying to take the city into the future as much as he's trying to bring it into the present. Because if you look at big cities around the world that seem to be doing better on transportation, bike lanes, street cars, those kinds of things are, in fact, the wave of the present and the future. It's difficult for me to see Vincent Gray turning away or head back from that.

SHERWOODI don't expect Gray to turn away at all. I think he might have a softer voice department of transportation director. But the trend line in this, the city is gaining population because of the cost of commuting and all that. People are moving back into the city. Whether you've got to protect the poor people who've lived here and lived through the worst times of the city, but some people believe we're making the city a Manhattan. Only the very rich and the very poor will be able to live here. But you're going to have to move these people around, and they all can't have cars.

NNAMDII knew that there was a change in the trending of transportation in the city when the resident analyst feature and star of this broadcast, "The Politics Hour," got himself a bicycle...

SHERWOODYes, last spring.

NNAMDI...in the year 2010.

SHERWOODAnd I'm still enjoying it.

NNAMDIAnd still enjoying it. Tom Sherwood...

SHERWOODIt's very nice in my backroom in my apartment.

NNAMDITom Sherwood is our resident analyst. He's a reporter at NBC 4 and a columnist for the Current Newspapers. We're looking into the future, the year 2011, in Washington area politics. Tom, one of the more colorful characters in the Fenty administration was his Attorney General, Peter Nickles, who spent much of his final weeks on the job pursuing an investigation into council member Harry Thomas' non-profit Team Thomas.

NNAMDIWhat do you expect will happen to this investigation and some of the others launched by the Fenty administration after the transition takes place? I got the impression that not only Harry Thomas but that Peter Nichols, in a way, seemed to have it out for both Fred Cook and David Wilmot who were associated as attorneys of Marion Berry during his administration.

SHERWOODRight, but they also -- those two guys were on a, I think, six senior citizen homes and IDI or whatever it's called. And...

NNAMDIAlong with another primary attorney in town named A. Scott Bolden.

SHERWOODA. Scott Bolden. What does that A stand for?

NNAMDIA. That's what it stands for. A. Scott Bolden.

SHERWOODSorry, sorry, Scott. No, but here's the deal. Peter Nickles, as the year was ending, is just trying to get all the ducks in a row and pursue the things he thinks should be pursued. The new attorney general, Gray says, the new Attorney General will be the Attorney General for the people of the city, not for the mayor. It will be unclear how the new Attorney General will go forward, all those things. But Peter Nickles will close up shop. He'll give up the rented apartment in downtown Washington, and he'll go back to his lovely farm in Northern Virginia. And he'll continue to be active in city issues.

NNAMDIBut, Tom, speaking of that attorney general position, Vincent Gray has made his pick for that job, former U.S. House Council, Irvin Nathan. Some people were expecting that Gray would go more local with this pick. Your thoughts? How is Irvin likely to work out in -- Irvin Nathan likely to work out in 2011?

SHERWOODWell, everything from the time of the appointment suggested Nathan is a certainly a qualified and accomplished lawyer. Gray has not known him very long. Gray, when he made the announcement, said he had -- I mean, I think, it was The Post initially reported, he'd only known him for a couple of weeks, but he came highly recommended from Bob Bennett. Gray did not want Peter Nickles. Peter Nickles is an accomplished lawyer, but he was a fierce -- and still is until, I guess, Jan. 2 -- a fierce advocate for Mayor Adrian Fenty. The attorney general is supposed to represent the corporate interest of the city as a whole, and, I think, Nathan will do that.

NNAMDIVincent Gray has already decided -- has also decided to re-up police chief Kathy Lanier. That was not totally unexpected.

SHERWOODNo. But it's the biggest appointment of all the appointments that have been made because of the business community. Lots of the neighborhood people wanted her to be reappointed. I know the Board of Trade, particularly, was aggressive about that. They thought -- everyone thought Kathy Lanier had done a good job of representing the police department. Crime is down, in part, because of national trends, not just policing. But it's a good appointment. The police union does not like it. But -- 'cause she's very highly paid, and they haven't had pay raises.

NNAMDIInterestingly enough, the police union doesn't like it. The fire fighters union does not like Gray's choice for Fire Chief Kenneth Ellerbe, and both unions say, we were not consulted about this. And Vincent Gray's reputation has been, I consult with everybody on everything.

SHERWOODWell, I ask about the -- Lanier told me that, in fact, the transition team had consulted with the union and other community groups, too. But, I think, there's an overall trend here. The fire union doesn't like the appointment, and it supported Gray, Ken Ellerbe. The police union doesn't like the reappointment of Lanier. The teachers union is not happy with -- previously Michelle Rhee or whoever is going to be the next superintendent. I think, you're seeing some kind of weakening of the urban municipal union affect in the city of Washington.

NNAMDIOkay, Kwame Brown will be taking over for Vincent Gray as Chairman of the D.C. City Council. It's a job that comes with a lot of responsibility and power, including the ability to dole out committee assignments. What will you be looking for out of Kwame Brown as chairman?

SHERWOODWell, you know, he's got to show that he can run the council. The good news is that Vince Gray was given credit for being a good chairman and running the council. There were some questions about some members of his staff. In fact, most of the Gray council staff members are moving over to the executive branch into the mayor's office. As the year ends, Kwame Brown is still trying to put his staff together. And he just has to see if he can run -- you know, you have 12 other people up there. It's like you as the host of this show, if you have two or three people, you've got to pay attention to them, pay attention to your notes, keep the program moving, which can be difficult.

SHERWOODIf you're on the council, you got 12 other orbiting satellites, and you're up there trying to keep it all organized. It's going to be interesting to see whether Kwame Brown can do that. We already talked about how education is one of his issues, adult education. So, I think, you'll see him spend some time on that 'cause he knows it.

NNAMDIThere's going to be some on-the-job training involved here?

SHERWOODYes. There will be on-the-job training. If there's a DOES for new council chairman, then Kwame should sign up for a course.

NNAMDIMarion Berry had his committee chairmanship taken away from him. Whether he'll get back committee powers is a big question. Moving forward, do you expect that will happen?

SHERWOODWell, Kwame Brown has said, every council member will have a committee. Whether that committee will have any power is the question.

NNAMDIWhat's the committee that Marion Berry wants?

SHERWOODEconomic Development.

NNAMDIEconomic Development. And do you think he's likely to get that?

SHERWOODI think every business person in town -- not every business person -- but 85 percent of the business people in town would have a heart attack if Berry were suddenly in charge of the Economic Development Committee. And as we were doing this program, one of the things is that Kwame Brown may keep that unto himself as chairman of the council.

NNAMDIHow do you expect the power dynamics on the council will change, if at all, this session?

SHERWOODWell, it depends on how much Kwame Brown steps up as chairman. If he does -- if he can show early on that he is, in fact, going to be a good and strong chairman, well, then he will be the power center. If, for some reason, Kwame Brown is seen as ineffective or not as strong as he should be, then we need to see who merges as the kind of council chairman to the side who be able to pull together seven votes whenever you need them. You know, some people think that might be Vincent Gray. He'll be kind of the unofficial chairman of the council even though he's mayor.

NNAMDIBut, of course, Vincent Gray -- because of the education priority in the Fenty Administration -- had the Education Committee become a committee of the whole. That's not likely to happen under the Kwame Brown chairmanship, and it is my understanding, according to Loose Lips anyway, that both -- Loose Lips of City Paper -- that both David Catania and Mary Cheh are vying for chairmanship of that committee. Who do you think will win it?

SHERWOODWell, I don't know. That's one of the problems, is that...

NNAMDIYou don't know? What's your purpose of being here if you don't have this inside knowledge?

SHERWOODLet me just say this. You know, sometimes the smartest thing to say is, that you don't know.

NNAMDIYeah, that's true.

SHERWOODI can fake it for a moment if you'd like.

NNAMDIYes.

SHERWOODBut the fact is David Catania, the large council member, has been the most public, the most active person trying to be the chairman of the Education committee, saying that he did health for the last, what, eight years. And he has done well by that, and he could do well by education. I just don't -- I'm not sure that Kwame -- I don't know what Kwame's doing, and a lot of the people who are close to him are not certain either. He's still trying to -- at the time we're doing this -- putting his staff together. The committee assignments are up in the air.

NNAMDIOkay. Let's see this. You got any inside scoop of what Adrian Fenty is likely to be doing next or whether we've seen the last of Adrian Fenty in D.C. politics?

SHERWOODYou know, I still think that Adrian Fenty could decide -- I mean, I don't know that he would do this. He might say, heck, no. But, I mean, he could run for the special election in the late winter, early spring to replace Kwame Brown on the council. You know, that's on that large seat. It is five or six people already wanting to run. If he were to run for that, he could probably win, and then we'd have two former mayors on the council. We'd have Marion Barry on one end of the dais and Adrian Fenty on the other and Kwame Brown, who would like to be mayor, in the middle.

SHERWOODIt would be quite a dynamic, so I think he'll travel some -- Mayor Fenty will -- talk about education reform just as Michelle Rhee has done. Maybe he'll get some consulting jobs out of that. I don't think he'll practice law, and we'll see what he's going to do.

NNAMDII think what you just told us is your wish list, to see Marion Barry at one end and Adrian Fenty at the other.

SHERWOODWouldn't that be great?

NNAMDII knew it was your wish list. Tom Sherwood is our resident analyst. He's a reporter at NBC 4 and columnist for the Current Newspapers. Now, on to Maryland because joining us from studios at the Baltimore Sun is Julie Bykowicz, a reporter at the Baltimore Sun. Julie, thank you for joining us.

MS. JULIE BYKOWICZThanks for having me.

NNAMDIJulie, Democrats seemed to take a beating just about everywhere in 2010, with the exception of Maryland where Martin O'Malley comfortably won re-election. What kind of political capital is he taking with him to Annapolis as he starts his second term?

BYKOWICZWell, it's huge. I think he will really be a person to watch in this next year both at the state level, because he does have this sort of dynamic wind behind him, but also potentially at a national level as he looks to his future.

SHERWOODWhat would be -- what do you mean by national level? And, incidentally, happy holidays to you, Julie.

BYKOWICZHappy holidays to you, too.

NNAMDIHappy holidays to you, Julie.

SHERWOODLet's get all these pleasantries out of the way.

BYKOWICZYes, exactly.

SHERWOODHappy Festivus.

BYKOWICZThat, too. That, too. That's coming up, isn't it?

SHERWOODI'm sorry, go ahead. What's around for him nationally, cabinet appointments, national elective office?

BYKOWICZWell, that's the question, but he was recently elected chairman of the Democratic Governor's Association, which gives him a little bit more of a national platform to, you know, get to know Democrats across the country and sort of develop his name recognition at a national level.

NNAMDIWhat sense -- oh, go ahead, Tom.

SHERWOODI was just going say, what does -- obviously, he's very circumspect about any of this kind of conversation. But what do people who see him on a regular basis think, that he, in fact, wants some more national attention? He obviously became chairman of Democratic Governor's Association, but beyond that, does he want it personally? His family, his family life, his -- where he is in his life, how old he is, what he wants to do? You remember when Hilary Clinton was running for President, and he was mentioned as a potential vice-presidential candidate.

BYKOWICZI think that's not entirely out of the question although that's much farther off in the future. There's always chatter about him being a likely or possible replacement if Sen. Mikulski decides not to run again. And he's very close with her. I think that's certainly one option for him. We also frequently hear chatter about, you know, cabinet positions in the Obama Administration at some point.

SHERWOODIf there is a second one.

BYKOWICZExactly, exactly. There's a lot of conjecture here, of course, but, I think, we will pretty quickly see how seriously he's taking his future in politics with this session coming up, what types of policies he starts to promote and what kind of a name he's trying to make for himself.

NNAMDITell him we're putting the band back together in case he decides that that can be his future.

BYKOWICZAnd speaking of that, he's got a couple shows coming up in Annapolis, I believe.

NNAMDISee there? He's keeping the band together. What sense do you have for what O'Malley's immediate priorities are going to be when the General Assembly gets to back work?

BYKOWICZWell, priority number one, like many states across the country, we've got a fairly sizable deficit to contend with -- anywhere between $1.5 and $2 billion hole. And so that's obviously the immediate concern. The question is, how is he going to close that? He's promised that his budget that he's putting together does not contain any new taxes or increased taxes. But he hasn't been as specific with what he would do if lawmakers propose new taxes. So that's sort of a question looming out there.

SHERWOODThat's a classic dodge.

NNAMDIHe hasn't said, read my lips.

SHERWOODNo, it's a classic dodge, Julie. I won't propose any new taxes, but it doesn't mean I won't sign any new taxes. You know, Maryland, you know, there was a recent census report. Maryland is the wealthiest state in the country. The median income is, like, $70,000 a year compared to, like, $56,000 nationally. So why can't you just raise taxes next year?

BYKOWICZWell, that's a good question...

NNAMDIRead my lips.

BYKOWICZ...and also, I mean, he did have to make pledges of that nature when he was on the campaign trail. And at some points this summer it did look it would be a pretty tight race in the governor's contest between him and former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, but you're right. And, also, polls have shown that Marylanders do have more of an appetite for taxes than in other states, that they're not necessarily totally opposed to them. So I think that it's likely that we'll see a couple of efforts by lawmakers to either resurrect service taxing ideas from the past or, you know, at least take a look at the gas tax or tax on alcoholic beverages. I think we'll hear a lot of tax talk in the coming few months.

SHERWOODDo you think the Lieutenant Governor might have a higher profile than he's had the last four years? I mean, it's almost below the surface.

BYKOWICZThat position is just sort of notoriously below the surface and...

NNAMDISomething Michael Steele had, but go ahead.

BYKOWICZWell, there are always exceptions, but no lieutenant governor has ever gone on to become governor. It's sort of -- again, with the exception of Michael Steele and also Joe Curran -- you know, frequently, that's all we hear from the lieutenant governor is their work as lieutenant governor. But there's some talk that maybe he would want to run for governor or some other office, so we'll hear from him about issues like BRAC. He's been very sort of instrumental in shaping BRAC and making that transition as seamless as possible. And, also, he's taken the lead on healthcare reform and how the state implements that, so we'll see if we hear any more from him in the next four years.

NNAMDIJulie Bykowicz is a reporter at the Baltimore Sun. She joins from studios at Baltimore.

SHERWOODThe Baltimore Stun?

NNAMDIThe Baltimore Sun.

BYKOWICZI like that.

NNAMDIShe joins us from studios at the Baltimore Sun. Tom Sherwood is our resident analyst and star. He's a reporter at NBC 4 and a columnist for the Current Newspapers. Julie Bykowicz, there's been a lot of talk already about whether gay marriage will be coming down the pike in Maryland. What's created the opportunity for a bill in 2011? And what are the early chances of a bill getting through?

BYKOWICZSure. Well, because of how you opened my introduction saying Maryland remained blue. We are a -- we did buck the national trend. We, actually, in Maryland picked up two Democratic state Senate seats, and that's what's sort of generating the talk about issues like gay marriage. With the additional two Democratic senators, legislators have said it looks likely that they can at least get a bill to the floor of the Senate -- which has been very challenging in the past few years -- where it will, no doubt, be subject to a filibuster attempt. But the Senate president, who's opposed to gay marriage, is also sort of opposed to the concept of filibuster.

BYKOWICZSo I think we will see some movement on gay marriage, and whatever a lawmaker's opinion of gay marriage is, one consistent theme I hear is that whatever happens to it, it's likely that voters will have the final say, you know, with an effort to bring it to referendum in the next election.

SHERWOODAre there other social issues similar to -- in the District of Columbia as always -- you know, whether the Congress is going to affect the gay marriage bill or whether there will be new abortion restrictions or needle exchanges or things like marijuana? You know, the city's about to open some marijuana clinic, which, I don't think, the Republican House has yet thought about. But are there any other big social issues in -- for this upcoming term in Maryland?

BYKOWICZWell, we are starting to hear new chatter about the death penalty. As you guys might remember Gov. Martin O'Malley is opposed to the death penalty -- sort of philosophically opposed to it -- and he testified in favor of a bill to abolish it a few years ago. That went nowhere, but with this newly -- with the two new Democratic senators there is some talk that, hey, maybe he'll give it another shot. So that's something to keep an eye on in the next couple of years as well.

NNAMDIBob Ehrlich has been the face of the Maryland Republican Party for a long time, but the Maryland GOP recently voted to install Alex Mooney, a Conservative ex-state Senator as the new state chairman over Mary Kane, Ehrlich's recent running mate for lieutenant governor. What should we be looking for from the Maryland Republican Party in 2011?

BYKOWICZWell, that's a great question. And it's -- it was somewhat of a surprising move to me because Alex Mooney had been a senator until he lost in this fall's election. And one of the first things he said to his fellow Republicans was that conservatives win, which is a little difficult to wrap your mind around since he is a conservative, and he just lost his election. There's no doubt that he's a more conservative head of the party than his immediate predecessor, Audrey Scott, who was more of a -- sort of -- you know, bringing everyone into the fold and trying to just grow the party.

BYKOWICZSo I think that it could be a really interesting time for the state Republican Party, and, you know, one wonders if what philosophy Alex Mooney will push and with his interests in legislation being in the Senate for a number of years, whether he'll try to get the state party more involved in legislating as well. So that will be kind of an exciting new head to watch in the next couple of months, especially with the session coming up.

SHERWOODI can't believe we've talked this long about Maryland and had not had mentioned the words, slots or horseracing.

BYKOWICZWell, horseracing, especially.

SHERWOODIs there -- are they going to save this -- how you can save an industry that appears to be dying -- I mean, truly dying?

BYKOWICZWell, it's looking pretty bleak. We've got a couple things going on with both gambling and horseracing. You know, always in the news is this sort of push and pull about, can we save horseracing, can we keep the Preakness, a jewel of the Triple Crown in Maryland and, you know, how devastating it would be to lose it.

SHERWOODWould devastating in the sense of just prestige, or is there -- is it a moneymaker for the state?

BYKOWICZIt is. It has a $40 million impact on the state. It's the largest, I believe, sporting event in Maryland in terms of economic impact. And there's just sort of a prestige there as well, that it would be, I think, devastating to those who sort of view Maryland horseracing as not just a fixture of the past but as part of the state's identity. And so there's...

SHERWOODIt does seem like people -- I'm sorry. It does seem like people love horseracing and the aura of it and the history of it. But when you go down to the checkbook writing time, it gets nervous.

BYKOWICZThat's true, and things just haven't worked out exactly as planned. We were supposed to get our slots parlors up and running a bit quicker, and, of course, as you well know, there was some -- an interesting turn of events in that the Laurel Racetrack did not receive a license for slot machine gambling and that it instead went to Arundel Mills. Now, the horseracing industry still benefits from slots, but I think that has sort of thrown the industry for a loop. And they're still sort of trying to get their feet on the ground.

SHERWOODWhen is the state going to stop fooling around and just allow it for a casino to built at National Harbor? You would have an eastern -- you would have a domination in the mid-Atlantic region. Bill Peterson would be very happy -- the developer, I think, of the National Harbor -- if that happened. He would just have all the Virginians who can't have this type gambling, all the district people, all the people come here, plus all of Maryland. It would be remarkable. When's that going to happen?

BYKOWICZWell, I think a lot of people share your opinion, but you have to sort of think, you know, especially in light of all the criminal investigations that have gone on in Prince George's County. You wonder whether that noise played a role in how Prince George's County was not included in the first go around and whether people feel comfortable...

SHERWOODWell, Rushern Baker's going to fix all that -- the new county executive.

BYKOWICZWell, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see.

NNAMDIWe're running out of time very quickly, but 2011 is an election year in Baltimore city. Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has been serving as mayor since Shelia Dixon stepped down. What kind of feel is she looking at, at this point in the game? Who do you expect can emerge to challenge Stephanie Rawlings-Blake?

BYKOWICZWell, of course, we love talking about election, so we're already speculating on the mayor's race coming up. And it looks like Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, who has served in the position for about a year now, will run again and will be the favorite candidate. But she probably will face competition in the form of Otis Rolley, who was a former chief of staff for Mayor Shelia Dixon, is also very well regarded in the development community in Baltimore. There's also always talk about Sen. Catherine Pugh throwing her hat in the ring. And then, you know, you can't have a Baltimore mayor's race without talking about Kweisi Mfume possibly running.

NNAMDIThat's true, and I'm afraid that's all the time we have. Former Congressman and head of the NAACP, Kweisi Mfume. Julie Bykowicz, thank you for joining us. And happy holidays to you.

BYKOWICZThanks, you, too.

NNAMDIJulie Bykowicz is a reporter at the Baltimore Sun. Tom Sherwood, that's it. Thank you for a wonderful year, and happy holidays to you.

SHERWOODLooking forward to 2011.

NNAMDIHappy holidays to our producer for "The Politics Hour," Michael Martinez and our engineer, Andrew Chadwick. Thank you all for listening. I'm Kojo Nnamdi.