America's Ally: What's Next For Ethiopia
http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2012-08-13/americas-ally-whats-next-ethiopia
Ethiopia is a strong U.S. ally and a regional power in east Africa. Over the last decade, it has pulled millions up from poverty through a combination of economic growth and foreign development assistance. But the country's ruling party, led by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, has also brutally suppressed dissent by jailing journalists and political rivals. Now rumors that Meles is in failing health are ratcheting up tensions. We explore the situation in Ethiopia.
Guests
David Shinn
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia; Co-Editor of "The Historical Dictionary of Ethiopia"; and Adjunct Professor, Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University
Tamrat Negara
Editor, Addis Neger
Beyene Petros
Ethiopian opposition leader; Professor of Biology, Addis Ababa University
Mekonnen Kassa
Ethiopian-American activist; former Chair, EPRDF Support Forum
Comments
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July 24, 2012
The Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia
Rahm Emanuel , the former Chief of Staff of the White House under President Obama, was often heard saying, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Asked to explain what he meant by that, he said, “Crisis presents an opportunity to allow you to do things you thought you couldn't do.” There is a potential crisis looming in Ethiopia in light of the Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi’s health concerns. Depending on who you choose to believe, the Prime Minister is anywhere between recovering to dying. To date, he has taken an indefinite leave of absence from the day to day governing. I for one wish the Prime Minster a speedy recovery, but if he decided to step aside earlier than the 2015 election as he had previously indicated, the impact of his departure will be enormous to a country of 80 million whom he had ruled with an iron fist for the last 20 years. Whether you agree with his polices or not, one thing is certain. He has been at the helm of a nation which has seen an unprecedented economic growth and prosperity rivaling growth in China and India.
On the other hand, the Prime Minister and his political party had abdicated their path to democracy, in earnest, sometime back in 2005 when an election his party lost was reversed through killings and imprisonment of opposition political parties and supporters, a trend which has continued in subsequent election in 2010. The elections and the subsequent clamping down of democracy in Ethiopia had turned the Prime Minister from a renaissance leader to pariah by some Western accounts. It has also put the Prime Minster and the country in an economic and political conundrum: how to achieve economic prosperity without democracy. It turns out these seemingly dichotomous points, dictatorship and economic growth, contrary to what we have learned in universities and colleges, are in fact, possible and may even produce more economic growth than purely democratic systems. See China. It turns out, also, that the Prime Minister’s views on this had been clear as crystalized by his comments at the 2012 World Economic Forum held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in which he said, “There is no direct relationship between economic growth and democracy.”
But let’s assume for a moment that while economic growth is possible under a benevolent dictatorship (which the PM seemed to suggest), what if we factor in democracy? And I am not talking about democracy-lite, which is a uniquely African phenomenon that begins and ends on Election Day with no substantive policy and regulatory changes to follow. I am talking about a full-fledged democracy with not just human rights, freedom of speech and the press, but a democracy which embraces free enterprise and the doctrine of laissez-fair.
Consider this: Ethiopia has been growing at an annual rate of 8.9% for the last eight years or so. According to the Economic Intelligence Unit analysis of 2011, Ethiopia is projected to grow by the same if not more percentage points for the next five years. There are more middle class income families in Ethiopia today than any time in its three thousand years of history. Manufacturing and agribusiness productivity are the highest it has ever been. Ethiopia exports more goods than ever before, led by coffee and soon to be superseded by electric power. The Ethiopian Diaspora from all over the world is returning to their birth country to invest at unprecedented number.
And now consider this: Such economic growth is occurring in spite of lack of democratic institutions, transparency, crippling economic and social policies, unfair and ad hoc taxation and an overall business and investment policy unfavorable to private enterprise than because of improvements in economic policies, incentives, democratic institutions or transparency. One can argue that above all else, this unprecedented growth is a testament to the resolve of the Ethiopian entrepreneur.
But there is an opportunity here. The next Prime Minister of Ethiopia should take the potential crisis a leadership gap could bring and turn it into an opportunity; an opportunity to continue doing the things that are working while improving areas hampered by an overreaching government policy and absence of democratic institutions. An opportunity to view the private sector as a true partner in economic growth of the nation and not an entity to be feared and stymied; An opportunity to encourage public-private partnership as a means to raise capital for the kinds of ambitious development goals Ethiopia has outlined but lacks the funds; An opportunity to create democratic institutions with truly independent bodies that facilitate, arbitrate and encourage entrepreneurship. These are real opportunity that ought to be capitalized by the next Prime Minister. It could unshackle the EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) party, the party of Mr. Zenawi, from its past mistakes and pave the way for a truly democratic country and a truly emerging market.
There is another reason for the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia to ponder bringing back democracy which could lead to even more economic growth of the country: the opportunity for wide scale Western investment rivaling China’s. Beijing has underwritten most of the big ticket investments in Ethiopia such as infrastructure, telecommunications and power systems. Chinese companies are propped up by the weight of their government at the negotiating tables in Ethiopia and elsewhere in Africa. Let’s face it, Beijing has no carrots and sticks policy for investing in Africa. Just carrots! While money is money to governments, regardless of where it comes from, it would be naïve to assume Chinese monopoly in Ethiopia is good for long term economic and political sustainability of the country. Democratizing Ethiopia could bring in fresh investments from the West which recognizes the importance of Ethiopia as a viable emerging market, but are hampered by the country’s record on human rights and lack of democratic institutions. To the extent the next Prime Minister democratizes Ethiopia, Western governments would have the political cover to push for the necessary policy and regulatory framework that encourages private investment and partnerships across the Atlantic. Let’s not forget, all politics is local. Basic economic has also thought us that a diversified investment portfolio is better than a less diversified one. Attracting Western investors would not only benefit the people of Ethiopia by creating jobs and expanding domestic industries, but it would also give the Ethiopian government a leverage against Chinese investments in the country, to say the least of availability of quality products and services for the Ethiopian consumer.
While history may prove Mr. Zenawi correct that there may not be as direct relationship between economic growth and democracy as once believed to be, I will argue that democracy will sure help a great deal in unleashing the entrepreneurial spirit of a nation by creating the political and economic confidence necessary for investment while attracting investments from more places than just China.
Alula Alex Iyasu , Managing Director, Bridge International
Hi Kojo, Thank you for choosing this important topic which mainstream media is shy away from covering it. One significant development in Ethiopia for the last 8 month is that more than 500,000 people are continuously peacefully opposing the direct interference of the government in the religious affair of Muslims ranging from importing an alien sect from unstable Lebanon to disallowing Muslims electing their religious leaders freely. Ethiopia is largely known for its unique culture of peaceful co-existence of Christian and Muslims which I would argue even can be taken as a model for the rest of the world. Contrary to this government’s interference and crackdown on the peaceful Muslims protestors will lead to endless unrest and religious tension in Ethiopia in particular and the horn of Africa In general. I believe it is to the best interest of US that Ethiopia to remain stable and strong ally .The reality is under the government response to this and other matters coupled with hegemony and dictatorial style of leadership , I fear that the Current condition in Ethiopia will end up as a post Mohammed Siad Barre era of Somalia.
Yedesdes ,Washington DC
Thank you
Hi Kojo, I would like to thank you very much for giving us this opportunity to talk a bit about Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been labeled as one of the poorest countries in the world during the previous regimes of Mengistu Hailemariam and Atse Haileselassie. The current leading party EPRDF has done enormous amount of changes to the country. According to IMF's report, Ethiopia will be joining the middle income countries soon. Regarding the health status of the PM, controversial news have been spreading. However, the main point is that whether Meles Zenawi is in power or not, does not affect the strength of leading party EPRDF.
Hi Kojo, thank you for your program about Ethiopia.
I believe the problem with PM Meles is not only an issue of human rights and democracy. The real problem emanates from the fact that the PM and his cronies have created an ethnic based federal (nominal) system which they believed enable them to divide and rule so that the minority tigrean group will stay in power.They dominated top government posts including the military. Of the 62 military officers the country has 59 are tigreans which only constitute 4 or 5% of the population. This minority clique has also dominated the economy through a privatization process that transferred public enterprises to personal and party ownership. If there is any development in Ethiopia, it is not because EPRDF did very well but because of the belief in the "Big Push" by the developed world that pumps about $4 billions a year and highly increasing remittances by Ethiopians living in the diaspora. You can not discredit the legitimate questions of the Ethiopian people by labeling it as a "diaspora agenda" - the diaspora has relative freedom here to speak whatever they want and the people that live back home do the same if given the same freedom.
For those who are working compassionately to see the better days of the country, a place where democracy sparkles, opposition ideas echoed generously, people choose their leader uninfluenced, elections un-rigged, robust and transparent media flourished, the shakeup in the office of the premier is a divine occasion. The economic growth though arithmetically manipulated and at times unrealistic is a point to begin and will serve as an impetus to hold the lending hands of the donors and allies. Therefore, the reforms must focus on continuing the Investment based, production oriented strategies but with diversified partners and investors. Chinese monopoly has to be reduced and at least monitored for competiveness and quality purposes. We seriously need transparency on big areas of mining and massive import/export markets.
The security concern in the volatile Horn, in my view has to be earnestly boosted even in a more collaborative setting with Western allies and those who are involved in the crisis such as Eritrean government, Somali government and others. The IGAD and AU must be a place for true Economic and political reforms than humble venues of clapping hands to dictatorial regimes. We need to take the leading role of opposing regimes with high-handed policies.
At the very fundamental and constitutional level, some changes both in the text and spirit of the federalism project are indispensable. Revisiting the Art. 39 and reducing the tone on ethnic nationalism is doomed to secure the continuation of the state. The eminent danger I would envisage in present day Ethiopia is ethnic rivalry and the demise of those fragile institutions twisted in ethnic benchmarks. Therefore the centripetal forces of the federalism idea have to be enhanced gradually.
Obviously, political prisoners locked behind the doors for nothing but dissenting opinion should have to be pardoned and the regime has to apologize for all the hassles it brought. By extension all those laws vainly aimed at picturing a one party state must go away.
The next premier has to be a man of transition, honest revolution, and amiable than concerned with his grip to political power and office routine. Ideas should have to be welcomed and reflected before surprising the public with bunch of declarations. Individual and civil society advocacy must be staged and tolerated.
I love the discussion by the way :)
God bless Ethiopia and her allies for change.