Shifting School Boundaries
http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2013-02-04/shifting-school-boundaries
As the population in our region explodes, overcrowded school districts are grappling with the controversial process of re-drawing school boundaries. School officials must weigh the wishes of parents with socioeconomic balance and unpredictable population growth. Some districts are even considering doing away with boundaries or year-round schedules to stagger student attendance. We explore how districts are taking on overcrowding.
Guests
Michael Petrilli
Author, "Diverse Schools Dilemma: A Parent's Guide to Socioeconomically Mixed Public Schools;" Vice President for National Programs and Policy, Thomas B. Fordham Institute
Abigail Smith
Independent education reform consultant
Sam Adamo
Executive Director of Planning and Legislative Services, Loudoun County Public Schools
Comments
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I worked on 2 redistricting projects with Fairfax County as a volunteer. Although our groups came up with several creative and much less disruptive solutions, the school board went ahead and did exactly what they wanted (and what we had predicted they would do). We were demoralized and cynical after both of these events. The high school in question was one of the most challeged, economically and ethnically. A neighbor of mine with 3 kids will see each of her kids graduate from a different high school. A better process needs to be put in place so kids are not moved around every year or 2. Too much cronyism on the school board to make a fair and balanced decision.
There is no question that Arlington County schools are currently overcrowded. However, there is a need to: 1) examine the source of the growth; and 2) review the validity of the County's linear projections of future enrollment.
The three basic sources for new students are: children born in Arlington; children that move into Arlington; children that are students in Arlington schools that are not County residents. Data suggest County live births have accounted for only 5% of new enrollment. So how much of the remaining 95% is due to in-migration of students as opposed to continued enrollment of students that are not County residents? Let's look at the evidence.
Live births:
The Arlington Public School (APS) FY 2013 budget (page 153) indicates that over the 5 years from FY 2008 thru FY 2012, the total increase in elementary school enrollment was 2,341 students (180 preschool and 2,161 K-5). Yet the official vital registration records indicate a net increase of only 120 births during the period 2003 thru 2007. The number of live births for Arlington actually declined from 2010 to 2011; and year-to-date figures suggest a further decline for 2012. The Capital Improvement Plan which justified the school bond indicates the 2012 kindergarten through grade 5 (elementary school population) is 9,303 in 2012. See pages 3-4 of http://www.arlingtonva.us/departments/ManagementAndFinance/CapitalImprov.... The most recent demographic projections predict the age 5-9 population cohort for 2020 will be 9,119 , lower than the total for 2012. See http://www.coopercenter.org/demographics/virginia-population-projections.
Children moving into Arlington:
Although age specific data for in-migration to Arlington is not available between census events, it is highly unlikely that the immigration experienced during this period would have produced the expansion in elementary school enrollment reported. I would think the largest growth factor in Arlington population has been among young people moving into condos and apartments along high density corridors. A key factor in projecting the future would be the likelihood that these persons will have children and whether they will remain in Arlington while their kid(s) are ages 5-18. Clearly the growth in housing seems to favor small units and many of those with more than 1 child may relocate to more affordable areas. It would be helpful to have better information on migration into the County for improved student enrollment projections.
Students that are not county residents:
It is understood that upon initial enrollment, an Arlington student needs to show some proof of residence, but proof of residence is not systematically re-checked. Some students who move outside of the county may find it advantageous to continue in the APS system (perhaps due to proximity to parents' workplace or prefrence for continuity), and there is no active effort to re-validate eligibility.
Based on the above, I believe the County should:
-review the linear projections for growth in elementary school enrollment,
-more proactively gather data on in-migration to improve enrollment projections, and
-improve procedures for confirming continued eligibility of students based upon residence.
Since it is estimated that 80% of the taxpayers of Arlington do not have kids in the APS system, and APS consumes a growing portion (around 45%) of the total County budget, I believe County officials should be concerned about these issues.